Instagram and YouTube are preparing to benefit if TikTok is banned

On Wednesday afternoon, executives at Meta held a Q&A session with some of its staff about the state of American politics.

Alex Schultz, chief marketing officer, addressed questions about Meta’s embrace of the incoming Trump administration and what he said was the company’s precarious position overseas, according to two attendees. He also said Meta was paying close attention to the fate of one of its biggest competitors: TikTok.

Depending on what happened with TikTok, which is owned by Chinese company ByteDance and faces a US ban, Meta had to prepare for what could be a seismic shift in how Americans use social media, said Mr. Schultz. Meta had the potential to benefit, but he said the company needed to be ready.

Meta, which owns Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Threads, has a vested interest in the outcome. The Silicon Valley giant – along with Google’s YouTube and other social media apps – could benefit if a law banning TikTok from the US takes effect on Sunday, leaving TikTok’s 170 million monthly US users high and dry. The Supreme Court is expected to rule soon on whether the federal law in question is constitutional.

Privately, Meta has deployed teams to prepare to round up as many so-called TikTok refugees as possible, three people familiar with the plans said. That includes doing more to court TikTok’s popular influencers and possibly further tweaking Instagram to make certain features more familiar to heavy users of TikTok, they said. Instagram offers Reels, a short-form video product that competes with TikTok.

“Instagram is a natural home” for TikTok creators and users, said Richard Kramer, financial analyst at Arete Research. “Like TikTok, the app has online shopping and robust user engagement.”

YouTube has also made changes to its app — notably YouTube Shorts, which gives users quick vertical videos — to appeal to TikTok creators. In October, YouTube expanded the maximum length of YouTube Shorts videos to three minutesup from one, to capture creators accustomed to TikTok, where videos can stretch up to 10 minutes. This week, YouTube invited some creators who use its app and TikTok to a YouTube Shopping “boot camp” program to get them started with the platform.

In a statement, a Meta spokesperson said the company is “following the news.” He added: “Like other apps and services in this highly competitive space, we are of course evaluating what different potential scenarios could mean for our products.”

A YouTube spokeswoman said the company regularly holds boot camps to inform creators about product features and formats.

For years, Meta and Google have been preparing for the possibility of a TikTok ban in the US. Their planning kicked into high gear in April when President Biden signed a bill that would force ByteDance to sell TikTok to non-Chinese owners or face a US ban. TikTok sued the federal government to challenge the law, with the case eventually landing in the Supreme Court.

Publicly, Meta and Google have been relatively quiet about what might happen if TikTok is banned from the U.S., but they have been active behind the scenes, said three people familiar with the companies’ plans.

At the Meta meeting on Wednesday led by Mr. Schultz discussed with executives how to divide internal resources — including workers and financial support — in part to handle a potential influx of TikTok users, the two employees familiar with the call said. Some teams have discussed how to help TikTok users transition to Instagram, including potentially bringing some of their TikTok videos to Instagram, the people said.

Instagram and YouTube will both see “incrementally” more revenue and time spent on their apps by users if TikTok is banned, John Blackledge, an analyst at investment firm TD Cowen, said in an interview. But Instagram has the advantage, he said.

US internet users said they were most likely to watch Instagram Reels after TikTok’s ban, according to TD Cowen’s recent survey of 2,500 consumers. Reels would attract 29 percent of respondents, while 23 percent said they would spend more time on YouTube Shorts and 15 percent would look for a new app, according to the survey.

Among advertisers, Instagram’s advantage appeared even more pronounced, with 56 percent of ad buyers telling TD Cowen in a survey last quarter that their clients most wanted to advertise on Reels this year. Another 24 percent prioritized YouTube Shorts, while 20 percent preferred TikTok.

Meta and Google aren’t the only companies trying to capitalize on TikTok’s potential misfortune. On Saturday, Substack, the newsletter start-up, announced a $25,000 “TikTok Liberation Prize” that will be awarded to the creator whose video convinces the most TikTokers to write to sign up for Substack, regardless of what happens with TikTok.

Clapper, a short video app similar to TikTok, this week offered some creators $200 for every video they make promoting its site as a destination for TikTok refugees. The company said the rate varied based on a creator’s content and following. And Xiaohongshu, a Chinese TikTok-like app known colloquially as “RedNote” in English, has also skyrocketed to the top of the App Store.

Which company can take over TikTok’s territory is still far from decided. Sammi Scotto, who creates content for TikTok and helps other creators join social media platforms, said she didn’t put all her eggs in one basket.

“I will be focused on Instagram, YouTube and LinkedIn,” she said, “but keep an eye on the others.”