Today’s Australian Open preview and best bets

Tennis Betting Tips: Australian Open Matches

1.5 pts Lorenzo Musetti to beat Ben Shelton on 11/8 (overall)

1 pt Corentin Moutet beats Learner Tien in the evening (general)

1pt Danielle Collins to beat Madison Keys at 23/10 (Unibet, BetMGM, LiveScoreBet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Ben Shelton vs. Lorenzo Musetti

Musetti gave us an underdog winner in the previous round and he is an interesting price again in this one.

the italian who was a straight-sets winner when we backed him against Denis Shapovalov on Thursdayhas won both previous meetings with Shelton, one of which was on a hard court (in Miami last season when he won 6-4 7-6).

Look into the details and what is particularly notable from these matches is how Musetti has had plenty of success on the big Shelton serve.

He has created 18 break points and converted four of them. In contrast, Shelton has only had three break opportunities, though he won two of them.

Like Musetti, Shelton has dropped just one set in Melbourne so far, coming against Pablo Carreno Busta, who had six break points but failed to convert any.

His second contest was always going to be a serve-dominated affair against Brandon Nakashima, but this match looks set to be significantly different.

If Musetti manages to get into Shelton’s service game – as he clearly has managed to do in the past – then I’d expect him to have more success in the long exchanges.

Support him in opposition.

Corentin Moutet against Learner Tien

It has been a good Australian Open for the ATP Tour’s so-called ‘Next Gen’.

Teenagers Joao Fonseca, Jakub Mensik and Tien have all beaten top-10 opponents.

However, Fonseca and Mensik both failed to back up those wins and lost in the following round, and there must be a good chance that Tien will follow suit.

As impressive as his conquest of Daniil Medvedev was, you have to wonder how Tien will have recovered from that finish at 3 o’clock on Friday morning.

He is only 19 and will not have dealt with anything like this before.

In addition, he had already played five sets in the first round against Camilo Ugo Carabelli (on top of three qualifying matches last week), while the organizers have not even put him in the night session – his match is due to start at 15.30 local time. It’s tough.

The crafty Moutet is certainly a player to try and get him running to test the legs and I like his chances.

He finished 2024 with a semi-final run in Metz and has backed that up with his best ever performance in Melbourne, beating home star Alexei Popyrin in round one and Mitchell Krueger in round two, both in four sets.

Madison Keys vs. Danielle Collins

You’ve probably seen Collins go to war with the Melbourne crowd on Thursday and I’m certainly looking forward to the reception she’ll get when she takes to Rod Laver Arena on Saturday night.

I would suggest that the atmosphere for what will be the final match of the day will be spicy.

The thing is, the American seems to enjoy any abuse she receives and is more than happy to give it back to those in the stands. She said after her win over home favorite Destanee Aiava that it actually makes her play better.

It’s far from the only time she’s taken on an audience – or even an opponent – verbally, so I’m pretty sure she’ll handle the inevitable brickbats just fine here, and I can’t really figure out why she is such a great prize.

Yes, Keys is 2-1 up head-to-head, but she’s notoriously inconsistent and with her go-for-broke style, she’s always capable of throwing in an error-ridden display.

She only just survived the final round and came through 7-5 in the decider against qualifier Elena-Gabriela Ruse.

Perhaps it’s the fact that Collins received treatment for a foot injury during her win over Aiava, although many believed the timing of the ailment was too good to be true, Collins called the trainer just before her opponent was about to serve to the set.

Keys’ odds of 4/11 suggest she should win this quite comfortably, but the higher-ranked Collins is nothing if not a stubborn competitor and I just can’t have her at 23/10.

She must be worth a bet.

Preview was published at 1250 GMT on 17/01/25

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