Trump Inauguration: 6 Factors to Watch When Trump Takes Office Again

President-elect Donald Trump is ready to become President Donald Trump – again. And he has made many promises about what he wants with his executive power.

On immigration, he has said he would like to enact mass deportations and end birthright citizenship (which is constitutionally protected), among other things. He has made big promises on foreign policy and told Americans that he can resolve the war in Ukraine as easy as you can open a bag of chips. He has said he will reshape our (and the world’s) economy with sweeping tariffs. And his allies have also hinted at even more unorthodox actions, including moves that could crack down on the federal workforce and classify Mexican cartels as terrorist groups.

The bottom line is that if Trump does even a fraction of the things he and his team have floated, he will radically reshape America. But his vision of the future may not come to pass. A president only has so much power, and Trump is notoriously mercurial — maybe he wants to change your mind. And it may be that circumstances beyond his control (for example, a global pandemic) completely distort his political plans.

All that to say, it’s impossible to predict what Trump will do. What is possible, however, is to create a framework for thinking about what might happen during his second term.

To help with that, I asked each member of Vox’s political team to answer one question: What is the one thing you think is most important for people to remember when Trump returns to power?

Here’s what they had to say:

The first time Trump was president, no one’s theory about how he would govern was quite right.

Trump’s most outspoken critics underestimated how normal his administration would be on many policy issues. Good or bad, much of it was normal Republican stuff. Plus, while Trump often sounded inept, there was often at least some method to his madness, as he remained constrained by institutions and checks on his power, and could often be persuaded to back down from his bluster.

And yet there was Trump’s attempt to steal the 2020 election — just one of many instances where he shockingly defied long-standing Democratic norms to try to get what he wanted, go far beyond the political conscious and defy his apologists claims. that he wasn’t as dangerous as he looked.

So when will second term Trump be surprisingly normal? And when will he push the envelope in ways that risk destabilizing the country and the world?

The first Trump administration reshaped the conversation about immigration in the long run, successfully framing it around the border and enforcement while ignoring the contributions of immigrants living in the United States.

This time he has said that he wants to move on. But the policy changes Trump is reportedly considering — mass incarceration and deportations, the abolition of birthright citizenship and closes the border — is not a real solution to an immigration system that is severely overburdened and in need of modernization, or the factors that cause people to migrate in the first place.

That is, even if Trump is successful in radically changing immigration policy, he is unlikely to succeed in “fixing” immigration. A real solution would, first, update legal pathways to the US to fit its economic and humanitarian needs, increase staffing levels across the system (not just among immigration enforcement), and quickly and fairly process people at the border.

The incoming Trump administration is divided by competing factions. And its internal power struggles could have profound consequences for the next four years of public policy.

Some in Trump’s orbit want to scale back his tariff proposal, while others (including the President) want to stick to a more radically protectionist agenda.

Incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio is applying confront Beijing and protect Taiwan, while Trump adviser Elon Musk maintains close business relationships to the Chinese Communist Party and has expressed opposition to anti-Chinese trade policy.

Musk and other pro-Trump tech moguls support guest worker visas for highly skilled foreigners, while Deputy Chief of Staff/Homeland Security Adviser Stephen Miller aims to limit such visas.

One version of MAGA could lead us toward a global trade war, mass deportation, and confrontation with China—another toward gradual changes in economic and foreign policy. Much therefore depends on who wins the Trump administration’s civil wars.

Remember that tomorrow is not today

I think it will be important to keep two ideas in our minds at the same time with this new administration: that Trump and his allies will outgrow their popularity, and that Democrats will have to pick their battles to be an effective opposition .

Trump and congressional Republicans will probably operate as if they have a huge popular mandate behind them. Yes, it may seem like all signs point to them having one, but remember this: Trump’s popularity remains historically low and it will probably fall when he begins to rule. Republicans control Congress by single digit margins.

Still, the Democrats are lagging behind. You can probably expect that they will not operate with the same kind of resistance that they did eight years ago. They will have to evolve, bide their time and not reflexively condemn Trump every time he does something. The bet is that Trump will fumble things and give Democrats the opportunity — if they’re strategic — to capitalize on his mistakes.

It has become unfashionable to talk about Trump as a threat to American democracy. As if the fact that he won fair and square, and is treated normally by much of the American elite, has somehow neutralized his propensity for breaking rules and smashing guardrails.

Of course, that tendency has not been neutralized. The question for the new administration is not sore Trump will take actions that damage American democracy, but how severe will that damage be.

Most important in the next four years will be tracking specific policy initiatives—such as Schedule F reclassification of federal employees—that contribute to democratic decline and developing strategies to avert the worst outcomes.

Tracking Trump is overwhelming for anyone.

He will make grand proclamations on social media that go nowhere. His team will make major new policies while insisting nothing has changed. And in the media, all this will be surrounded by a whirlwind of accusations and defenses.

So how can anyone separate fact from fiction?

It starts with patience. When Trump speaks, wait and see if he backs it up. When you hear about major changes, read past the headlines and seek out outlets that aim to clarify, rather than amplify, the news. A clear-eyed understanding of the Trump administration is possible—it’s just not always possible in real time.

The political team and all of Vox will have a lot more for you about Trump and his administration in the coming days, months and years. As the president-elect likes to say, stay tuned!