Australian Open quarter-final preview: Djokovic vs. Alcaraz

MELBOURNE, Australia – Carlos Alcaraz couldn’t have put it better when asked to share his thoughts on the upcoming Australian Open quarter-final match against Novak Djokovic.

“This is not the right player to play in a quarter-final,” joked the world no. 3.

At any tennis tournament on the planet, this heavyweight matchup would be a worthy and highly anticipated final. But at this year’s Australian Open, the two titans will battle it out in a quarter-final for the ages.

Here’s how each player can win the match and advance to the semi-finals:

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Why Novak Djokovic wants to beat Carlos Alcaraz

Is it too simple to say that Djokovic just knows how to win at Melbourne Park? Perhaps. But he really does!

Djokovic is a 10-time Australian Open champion and boasts a ridiculous 94-9 record at the tournament during his career. Take his first three years on tour and that number becomes even scarier at 91-6. No player has won more matches than Djokovic at the Australian Open and no player has won more matches at Rod Laver Arena, where Tuesday’s blockbuster showdown will be contested. There is an aura around Djokovic that is clearly felt by his opponent every time he steps onto this court.

The head-to-head record between the two also favors Djokovic in this quarterfinal. After losing to Alcaraz in two of the pair’s first three meetings, the Serbian star has managed to turn the script. He won three of the next four, including last summer’s famous Olympic final on clay at Roland Garros. The decisive thing is that Djokovic has also won both times he and Alcaraz have met on a hard court. Those matches were at the 2023 Cincinnati Masters and the ATP Finals later that year.

After dropping sets in both his first and second round matches at the tournament, Djokovic seems to have found his groove again. He has won eight straight sets, displayed ferocious forehands and that trademark defense en route to the quarterfinals.

“I’m really happy to beat both (Tomas) Machac and (Jiri) Lehecka in straight sets, which encourages me to believe that I can win against any opponent really on a good day when I’m feeling my best.” Djokovic said after his fourth-round win. “I like the way I’m playing and the way I’m feeling the last few games. I’m excited for the (Alcaraz) challenge.”

The Alcaraz serve, which was rebuilt last season in an effort to make the movement more fluid and thus find accuracy with greater consistency, also seems a little suspect. He has hit 15 double faults through four matches and lands the first serve just 62% of the time. That has him ranked 69th for first serve percentage at this year’s tournament. If Alcaraz continues to struggle with his serve, it will benefit Djokovic, the greatest returner the game has ever seen.

But perhaps the biggest reason to suggest Djokovic will overcome his younger rival and move into the last four is the history he is playing for. Another Grand Slam title – a 25th – would break his tie with Margaret Court for most major singles triumphs in a career. And if he wins another major, he will become the oldest man to ever lift a Grand Slam trophy.

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Why Carlos Alcaraz wants to beat Novak Djokovic

There is no shortage of factors working in Alcaraz’s favor ahead of this quarter-final. But the most obvious must be his age and freshness.

At 21, Alcaraz is an extraordinary 16 years younger than Djokovic and those fresh, young legs should stand him in good stead against the king of Melbourne Park. Not only that, but Alcaraz has spent significantly less time on court through the first four rounds: seven hours and 45 minutes compared to Djokovic’s 11 hours.

Djokovic may hold the eye-popping record at the Australian Open, but for stretches of this year’s tournament he hasn’t looked like the player he once was. Perhaps you could say that his age invariably shows. At various stages, Djokovic has struggled with respiratory problems and struggled to get around the court with his usual gusto, although there have been improvements in his last two matches. It almost sounds wrong to say, as fitness and mental strength have defined his illustrious career, but the longer the fight goes on, the more Djokovic will be at a disadvantage.

Alcaraz has already proven that he has the game to beat Djokovic on the biggest tennis courts. What is ominous for Djokovic is that Alcaraz is undoubtedly getting better.

The Spaniard is hitting the ball harder and with more aggression this fortnight in Melbourne than he was 12 months ago. Tournament data shows that he has sacrificed about 4% topspin on his forehand in exchange for more speed, and is now generating an additional 3 km/h (1.9 mph) on average on those shots. As a result, he has won the most winners in the tournament and has the second highest percentage of winners from points played. If he can get on top of that serve, he will be hard to beat.

“Against Novak, it’s not going to change anything for me. I’m going to approach the fight the same way I did in the previous fights against him,” Alcaraz said after his fourth-round match against Jack Draper. “I know my weapons. I know I’m capable of playing good tennis against him, I’m capable of beating him. That’s all I think about when I face him.”

Djokovic is not the only one who sees history with a win on Tuesday. Alcaraz is just three wins away from securing the only Grand Slam title that has eluded him throughout his young career. Should he win the Australian Open, he would become just the ninth man in history to complete the career slam, but at 21 years, 8 months and 19 days, he would be the youngest to achieve the feat.

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Who will win

It’s hard to pick against Djokovic at the Australian Open, but there’s a sense that we’re entering the Alcaraz – and Jannik Sinner – era. It becomes the match of the tournament and Alcaraz wins in five epic sets.