Who has qualified for the Champions League and how does the next stage work

Liverpool and Barcelona have qualified for the Champions League knockout stage; Manchester City are in danger of elimination, while Arsenal and Aston Villa are in good form.

Celtic’s play-off hopes, meanwhile, are alive as the 36-team league stage of the revamped Champions League nears its climax.

The top eight automatically progress to the last 16, crucially skipping the two-legged knockout play-off round.

City, the 2023 winners, are far from the only heavyweights sitting uncomfortably.

How many teams qualify for the knockout stage?

First, here’s a reminder of what the 36 teams in the league stage are aiming for.

Those who finish in the top eight will automatically advance to the last 16, where they will be seeded.

They will await the winners of eight two-legged knockout play-off matches with the clubs ranked from ninth to 24th.

Those finishing between ninth and 16th will be seeded and face a team placed 17th to 24th with the advantage of playing the second leg at home.

The clubs 25th or lower are eliminated and do not gain access to the Europa League.

Which teams have qualified?

Liverpool and Barcelona became the first teams to qualify for the knockout stages on Tuesday night with a game to spare.

Arne Slot’s side kick French club Lille at Anfield to maintain their 100% record in the competition this season.

The result means that the Reds are assured of a top-two finish and therefore a top spot in the knockout draw.

Barcelona’s 5-4 win against Benfica means the Spanish club are also assured of a place in the top eight, although they could slip further down the table depending on the results of Wednesday’s games and next week’s.

What about Arsenal, Aston Villa, Man City and Celtic?

Arsenal and Villa are both guaranteed places in at least the play-offs, but they will be hoping to go straight through to the last 16 by finishing in the top eight.

The Gunners have two games remaining, starting with Wednesday’s home game against Dinamo Zagreb. Depending on other results, a win could confirm a top-eight finish for Mikel Arteta’s side.

Villa’s chances were dented by one 1-0 defeat to Monaco on Tuesday but they remain in the top eight ahead of their final league game against Celtic.

Celtic are 23rd in the table – two places above the elimination places.

Brendan Rodgers’ side take on Young Boys – who are bottom of the table and without a point in the Champions League this term – at Celtic Park on Wednesday.

A win would almost certainly guarantee Celtic a knockout play-off place.

Manchester City are one place and one point behind Celtic in 24th.

Pep Guardiola’s side face a daunting trip to Paris St-Germain on Wednesday before a matchday eight home game against Club Brugge.

A win against PSG would significantly boost City’s chances of a knockout play-off place, but it would not guarantee it.

An exciting final is guaranteed on 29 January, when all 18 final group games will be played simultaneously at 20:00 GMT.

Does it matter where you finish in the top eight?

Definitely.

Where a team finishes in the league table determines which opponents they face and when they can face them in the knockout stages.

Take Liverpool for example. The Reds are now assured of a top-two finish, giving them a seeded route to the last 16.

This means the Reds will face a team that finished 15th, 16th, 17th or 18th in the last 16.

The identity of the team will not be known until after the playoffs, but the predetermined draw means that it will be the winner of ties involving teams that finish as No. 15, 16, 17 or 18.

Liverpool cannot face the team that finishes second in the league stage – or whoever finishes top if they are overtaken on the final matchday – until the final.

In contrast, a team finishing seventh or eighth could face a team that had finished just below them in the league stage – in ninth or 10th.

Read more about who is playing who in the playoffs…

What is the difference between becoming no. 9 and no. 24?

Teams finishing between ninth and 16th place will be seeded in the knockout stage playoffs.

This means they will face a team that finishes between 17th and 24th.

Who the seeded teams will face will be decided by a draw, but the clubs will only have two possible opponents.

For example, the teams that finish 11th and 12th are paired together and will play against a team that finishes 21st or 22nd.

Another bracket will pair the teams that finish ninth and 10th in the table, playing either the team that finished 23rd or 24th.

The two matches will be drawn in opposite halves of the overall draw and the seeded teams will play the second leg of the play-offs at home as a reward for finishing higher than their opposition in the league stage.

Unlike previous years, teams knocked out of the Champions League – either in the group stage or via losing a play-off – do not drop into the Europa League.

The draw for the play-off round is on 31 January at 11:00 GMT.

How many points are needed to qualify?

As this is the first edition of the new format, it remains to be seen exactly how many points are required to achieve a top-eight finish or avoid elimination from the competition.

Ahead of this season’s competition, Opta calculated each team’s expected points tally and probability of progression based on 50,000 simulations of the league stage.

They found that 16 points – potentially five wins and a draw from eight matches – would give a 98% chance of finishing in the top eight.

After game week five, Opta recalculated and said 16 points would now give teams an 87% chance of a top-eight finish.

Meanwhile, achieving 10 points – say three wins and a draw – would give teams a 94% chance of securing a place in the top 24.

However, any team that collects fewer than eight points can expect their participation in European competition this season to be over.

Watch highlights from every Champions League match from 10pm on Wednesday on BBC iPlayer and the BBC Sport website and app.

There will also be a Champions League match of the day on BBC One on Wednesday from 22:40 to 00:00.