Trump kept his first Bitcoin promise: What’s next?

Just one day after being sworn in as president, Donald Trump kept one of his first promises to the Bitcoin community by signing a full and unconditional pardon for Ross Ulbricht, a bitcoin folk hero and former Silk Road operator. Prediction markets have had an impressive success rate for accurately predicting the outcome of political, social and sporting events, often outperforming traditional opinion polls and expert analysis. Now investors are shifting their attention to what the prediction markets are suggesting about Trump’s other Bitcoin promises.

Traditional polling is going the way of the fax machine, and is gradually being supplanted by prediction markets like Polymarket. A recent example was the results of the 2024 US presidential election, with Polymarket’s markets predicting Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race shortly after the June 27 debate, weeks before his official exit.

Given Polymarket’s knack for accuracy, attention now turns to measuring the early actions of Trump’s crucial first months in office. The first of many promises Trump made to the Bitcoin community was kept yesterday when he issued a pardon for Ross Ulbritch. Ulbritch’s pardon came hours after Polymarket had risen to a 95% probability following signals from key figures from the administration.

The current market odds place one 30% probability on Trump establishing a national Bitcoin reserve within his first 100 days — a cornerstone promise that involves law enforcement keeping seized bitcoin instead of auctioning it off. Furthermore, market odds are that the US will establish a strategic bitcoin reserve during 2025 60%.

Other Bitcoin-related prediction markets such as the odds of the state of Texas signing the Bitcoin Reserve Act in 2025 are at 43%. For context, seven US states have introduced legislation or proposals to create a state-level bitcoin reserve. These are Texas, Alabama, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio and North Dakota. The odds of a US state approving a bitcoin reserve by March 2025 are on 18%.

However, it is important to note that prediction markets can also go wrong. For context, Polymarket odds for a Trump crypto order on Day 1 were 56% on inauguration day, and crashed to 0% during his first day in office as no cryptocurrency executive order was signed.

As the Trump administration works its way through the first 100 days, prediction markets and pollsters will be put to the test, and the results will speak for themselves. I believe that the prediction markets will become more and more accurate and efficient over time as more participants seek to express their views and support their beliefs with their wallets.

In an age of prediction markets, investors can now benefit from accessing market intelligence data from venues like Polymarket for free. In the past, this type of market information was only available to wealthy investors willing to pay for market research and polls. More information can lead to better decisions. Over time, these developments should level the playing field between large and small investors in terms of access to market data.