What changed for Caleb Wilson? Joe Tipton unpacks late switch from Kentucky to UNC

Five star forward Caleb Wilson is finally set to commit. The 6-foot-8 forward from Atlanta will choose between Kentucky, North Carolina and Ohio State in an announcement Thursday, ending a recruiting spree that has spanned years.

On3 national basketball analyst Joe Tipton joined Here Comes the Boom for a special Wednesday episode showcasing Wilson’s commitment. Tipton said Wilson’s recruitment has long been known as a two-horse race between Kentucky and North Carolina.

“A couple of weeks ago, maybe even early last week, I thought Kentucky was the firm leader,” Tipton said. “In my opinion, the Wildcats made a lot of sense. Mark Pope has really taken this Kentucky program to really high hopes this season. It really felt like Wilson was trending that way for Britain.”

However, the tide has turned too late. Tipton said he sees North Carolina as the favorite heading into Thursday’s engagement.

“It turns out there was some real substance to the UNC rumors. Going down this final stretch, it looks like North Carolina is now in the driver’s seat,” Tipton said. “I’ve been told by sources, that UNC donors and UNC power players are confident going into Wilson’s Thursday announcement.”

Tipton isn’t completely ruling out Kentucky. Still, things aren’t looking good for the Cats in their pursuit of a top 10 forward.

“To be absolutely clear, I’m not completely ruling Kentucky out here until he says where he picks,” Tipton said. “But I think Britain’s chances have dropped significantly as we go into this final stretch.”

What changed?

Joe Tipton continued Here comes the boom on Jan. 9 and said he believed Kentucky was in the driver’s seat. So what changed?

“I haven’t specifically talked to Caleb about this, but talking to people around him, it sounds like Caleb liked the fit a little bit more at North Carolina,” Tipton said. “I don’t know how much he sees fit at Kentucky. He always talked a lot about the North Carolina point guard Elliot Cadeauwho is expected to be back in Chapel Hill next season. Sounds like he likes the idea of ​​playing with him, potentially next season. I think that’s what it came down to.”

Then there is the aspect of NIL. Tipton isn’t sure how much of a role that played in Wilson’s recruitment.

“Obviously the NIL is a factor in all of these high-level recruiting. I don’t know how much that played a role in Caleb’s choice,” he said. “I’m sure he received lucrative offers from both programs. I think the fit was probably the best example of that and the very success that UNC freshmen have had, namely Ian Jackson this season, also a former five-star player.”

UNC is led by a pair of five-star prospects in the Ian Jackson and Drake Powell. Meanwhile, Kentucky does not have any five-star freshmen on its 2024-25 roster.

“It is clear when (Mark) Pope took over the job, there weren’t a lot of rookies that he could have gotten,” Tipton said. “He relies more on experience, so I don’t know if Caleb is able to see that vision as much at UK when it comes to freshman playing time. It’s a couple of factors there.”

Where does Kentucky go from here?

Kentucky has the nation’s no. 5-ranked recruiting class in 2025, even without a commitment from Caleb Wilson. Where do you go from here if Wilson goes elsewhere?

“I think they immediately pivot to Nate Amentanother five-star recruit,” Tipton said. He is On3’s no. 2-ranked customer in the country.”

Kentucky will have its fair share of schools to beat out for Ament. He’s down to a final 11 of Arkansas, BYU, Duke, Georgetown, Kansas State, Kentucky, Louisville, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Alabama and Texas

“He’s expected to make a decision in either February or March,” Tipton said. “I think UK immediately go for him. I think they would have a good chance with him.”

Tipton believes Kentucky could have a chance with Ament if they make a push. This is even despite the fact that they were a little late to the party.

“I know Nate is a little bit further along in his recruiting and UK has prioritized Caleb a little bit more at this point. I think they would be able to make something up quickly, though,” Tipton said. “If it’s a little too late for him and he’s already a little further with other programs involved for him, I think you just look at the transfer portal. There’s going to be plenty of opportunities there.”

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