2025 Model Y Juniper Arrives With End of ‘EV Mandate’

(UPDATE) The recently announced Tesla Model Y Juniper update will face pricing challenges in the US, reflecting a rapidly changing EV pricing landscape. The updated Model Y – already introduced in China – is expected to be introduced in the US in the coming weeks. The Model Y is the best-selling electric car in the US, overwhelming all competitors.

The Trump administration will complicate Model Y Juniper pricing in the US

President Trump said Monday that the “EV mandate” will be revoked. “With my actions today, we will end the Green New Deal and we will repeal the electric car mandate, save our auto industry and keep my sacred promise to our great American auto workers,” Trump said in the Capitol Rotunda.

The president too issued an executive order assessing “The elimination of unfair subsidies and other ill-conceived government-imposed market distortions that favor electric vehicles over other technologies.” But how it will be concretized in the coming days and weeks is not yet clear.

Guidelines set by the Biden Administration say, among other things, that more than half of all car sales in the United States by 2032 must be zero-emission vehicles. Almost all zero-emission vehicles sold in the United States today are electric vehicles. Trump claims this amounts to an “EV mandate.” The term “EV mandate” is used loosely by the President. Its origins stem from guidelines set by the Biden Administration. “It’s not a mandate,” said Stephanie Brinley, an analyst at S&P Global Mobility. “It was an aspirational goal” set by Biden, she added.

President Donald Trump’s transition team reportedly intends to kill the $7,500 consumer tax credit for the purchase of electric cars. That credit has been a signature measure of the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act, or IRA, to boost the adoption of electric cars. The IRA incentives, including the $7,500 EV tax credit, promote sales of electric vehicles, which help automakers meet the requirements of the Biden guidelines. It’s unclear when the Trump administration might take concrete steps to eliminate the $7,500 credit. In particular, it would require Congressional action to eliminate the credit.

Tax credits keep Tesla prices down

So far, the IRA incentives have been a big factor in keeping the starting price of, say, the Model Y down to well under $40,000. Currently, the starting price of the Y in the US is around $37,500 with the credit versus $44,490 without. California, for its part, said it would restart state incentive programs if the tax credit is eliminated, but these are just promises at the moment. And it’s not clear what other states would do.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk stated in July that removing the federal EV tax credit would “only help Tesla” and be devastating to competitors. But there’s no way to translate that bravado into actual future prices.

Model Y Juniper China price

But a disappearing EV mandate isn’t the only thing potential US Tesla buyers should keep an eye on. The initial Model Y Juniper pricing in China – where it is slated for availability in March – is higher than the previous version of the Model Y. Will this translate to higher prices in the US?

• China Juniper RWD: 263,500 yuan (about $36,000) for entry-level rear-wheel drive Model Y. That’s an increase of about 5.4% over the previous Y in China.
• China Juniper AWD: 303,500 yuan (about $42,000) for The Long Range AWD variant. That’s an increase of about 4.3% in China.
• US*: $44,990 ($37,490 with $7,500 federal tax incentive) for entry-level RWD Model Y.
• US: $47,990 ($40,490 with $7,500 federal tax incentive) for long-range AWD Model Y variant.

*Price for current non-Juniper version in the US

Will the Model Y be a sales hit or is it unassailable?

The Model Y was by far the best-selling US electric car in 2024 with over 370,000 vehicles sold, far outstripping the next closest non-Tesla competitor, the Ford Mustang Mach-E, with over 320,000 vehicles, according to Kelley Blue Book. (The Model 3 was No. 2 with about 190,000 vehicles sold.) But will the update — which isn’t a major design makeover — be enough to sustain its popularity? “For 2025, the Tesla Model Y is unlikely to be outsold by any other electric car in the US, in part because Tesla still has more manufacturing capacity than others,” said Brinley of S&P Global Mobility. However, she added that the design, even with the update, is still dated.

What should potential buyers do?

The obvious answer is: buy a Y while you can still get $7,500 off—which is essentially what the federal tax credit is for many buyers. Wait and you roll the dice. If you wait, you’ll get an improved Model Y, but you may have to pay more, possibly a lot more. The current (non-Juniper) version of Y is available both to order and on (sometimes cheaper) inventory page in the US But note that both the RWD and Performance versions – depending on the day – often have limited availability on the stock side. However, the popular long-range AWD shows good stock availability.

Update adds comments from Stephanie Brinley, an analyst at S&P Global Mobility, clarifies what the “EV mandate” is, and adds a statement from Trump’s executive order regarding the “EV mandate.”