My first effort: Early choices for AFC, NFC Championship Games

Four teams remain in search of getting to New Orleans for the Super Bowl Lix. On Saturday, the two-time defender defeated Kansas City Chiefs Houston Texans in the divisional round to move on to their seventh straight AFC championship games. Chiefs will offer a well -known enemy to Geha Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Buffalo Bills, who topped Baltimore Ravens at home on Sunday. The line of the AFC Championship game opened on -1 on Sunday night and continues to crawl against Kansas City.

In the NFC, the Washington commanders pulled a riot of the No. 1-seeded Detroit Lions on Saturday behind a spectacular performance from Rookie QB Jayden Daniels. Commander traveling to meet their NFC East Rival, Philadelphia Eagles, who went on to the championship with a win over Los Angeles Rams. Eagles opened as six -point favorites over the commanders and the line has moved down half point since to -5.5.

Here’s a look at where our team thinks you can find values ​​in the early line before they start moving when the week goes by.

All odds are accurate from time stamp. For the latest odds go to Espn bet.

Joe Fortenbaugh’s first effort: Chiefs -1.5 over bills

Last week: Ravens (+1) vs. Bills. Line closed at Bills +1.5. Bills won 27-25.

Credit to Buffalo to take advantage of Baltimore’s countless mistakes, but can you really rely on another +3 revenue differential to get you through the AFC Championship Game? The bills were pronounced with 143 total meters to a Sloppy Ravens clothing that ended the game with 25 points, 416 total meters and a 70% third down conversion speed. Hanging 30 Plus points on the road was definitely an option for Baltimore. And let’s not forget the officials here who tend to sit with mahomes. Disagree? Since Kansas City committed 11 sanctions in 120 yards against Tom Brady and Buccaneers in the Super Bowl LV (2021), Chiefs has been punished 30 fewer times in 222 fewer meters than their opponents in their subsequent 11 playoff performances. I’m putting this on.

TYLER FUNDS FIRST ATTENTION: Commanders +5.5

Last week: 6 -point teaser: Chiefs -1.5 | Commanders +14.5. Chiefs won 23-14. Commanders won 45-31.

I feel like this line overestimates the eagles with a point or two. Commander has already beaten Eagles when this season. Jayden Daniels plays better football than Jalen hurts. In the divisional round, the Eagles got another 200 plus dangerous courtyard and was +2 in the margin of revenue against the frame and still did not cover. They almost lost the game in regulation. I chose Philly to win the NFC and I will stand by it, but I feel that this line should respect the commanders a little more than it does.

Seth Walder’s first effort: Bills ML +105

Last week: Commanders-Lions over 55.5 total points. Commanders won 45-31.

The bills are just the better team.

Excluded week 18 (when both teams rest), the bills have a massive EPA per day. Dropback advantage: .26 to .15. In other words, every 10 bills passing through theater pieces are worth one point more than every 10 bosses passing. And the earth game? The exact same story: 0.07 for buffalo, minus-0.03 for chiefs.

Yes, Buffalo’s passing defense has been significantly worse recently, although these two teams have been about the same. And it is less important than offense, which is more stable from week to week than defense. To support Chiefs, believe in a kind of essential Mahomes autumn season -Boost, which I just don’t want to buy over a Bills team that has shown their superiority during this year.

Pamela Maldonado’s first effort: Chiefs ML (-120) vs. Bills

Last week: Commanders (+8.5) vs. lions. Line closed by commanders +8.5. Commanders won 45-31.

The animal of their ability to pull victories in nail -biting way, Chiefs has mastered the art of thriving under pressure. Patrick Mahomes’ brilliance in clutch moments, paired with Andy Reid’s tactical genius, has routinely led Kansas City to prevail even when they’ve been surpassed or apparently outplayed. Their match-tested playoff experience and championship DNA provide a mental advantage against the bills that have not yet exerted their demons after the season against Kansas City. Chiefs had to hit their ticket to another Super Bowl.

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