The CIA believes that COVID probably originated in a laboratory, but has low confidence in the result

WASHINGTON (AP) – The CIA now believes the virus is responsible for Covid-19 pandemic most likely originated from a laboratory, according to an assessment released Saturday that points the finger at China even as it acknowledges the spy agency has “low confidence” in its own conclusion.

The finding is not the result of any new intelligence, and the report was completed at the behest of the Biden administration and former CIA Director William Burns. It was declassified and released Saturday at the order of President Donald Trump’s pick to lead the agency, John Ratcliffe, who was sworn in Thursday as director.

The nuanced finding suggests that the agency believes that the overall evidence makes a laboratory origin more likely than a natural origin. But the agency’s assessment assigns a low level of confidence to this conclusion, suggesting that the evidence is deficient, inconclusive, or contradictory.

Previous reports on the origin of COVID-19 have split whether the coronavirus originated from a Chinese laboratory, potentially by mistake, or whether it arose naturally. The new assessment is unlikely to settle the debate. In fact, intelligence officials say it may never be solved due to a lack of cooperation from Chinese authorities.

The CIA “continues to assess that both research-related and natural origin scenarios for the COVID-19 pandemic remain plausible,” the agency wrote in a statement about its new assessment.

Rather than new evidence, the conclusion was based on fresh analysis of intelligence about the spread of the virus, its scientific characteristics, and the work and conditions of China’s virology laboratories.

Lawmakers have pressed America’s spy agencies for more information about the origins of the virus, which led to shutdowns, economic upheaval and millions of deaths. It’s a question with significant domestic and geopolitical implications as the world continues to grapple with the pandemic’s legacy.

Republican Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said Saturday that he was “pleased that the CIA in the final days of the Biden administration concluded that the lab leak theory is the most plausible explanation,” and he praised Ratcliffe to declassify the assessment.

“Now the most important thing is to make China pay for unleashing a plague on the world,” Cotton said in a statement.

Chinese authorities have rejected speculation about the origin of COVID as inappropriate and motivated by politics. On Saturday, a spokesman for China’s US embassy said the CIA report has no credibility.

“We strongly oppose the politicization and stigmatization of the source of the virus and once again urge everyone to respect science and stay away from conspiracy theories,” embassy spokesman Liu Pengyu said in a statement sent to The Associated Press.

While the origin of the virus remains unknown, scientists believe the most likely hypothesis is that it circulated in bats, like many coronaviruses, before likely infecting another species raccoonscivet cats or bamboo rats. In turn, the infection spread to people who handled or slaughtered these animals at a market in Wuhan, where the first human cases emerged in late November 2019.

However, some official investigations have raised the question of whether the virus escaped from a laboratory in Wuhan. Two years ago, a Department of Energy report concluded that a laboratory leak was the most likely origin, although this report also expressed low confidence in the found.

That same year, then-FBI Director Christopher Wray said his agency believed in the virus “most likely” spread after escaping from a laboratory.

Ratcliffe, who served as director of national intelligence during Trump’s first term, has said he also favors the lab leak scenario.

“The lab leak is the only theory supported by science, intelligence and common sense,” Ratcliffe said in 2023.

The CIA said it will continue to evaluate any new information that could change its assessment.