AFC Conference Championship Injury Update, DFS Guide, Start/Sit Advice, Projections and more

The Buffalo Bills will face the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Conference Championship Game. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and going forward, especially regarding WR Curtis Samuel.

Playing Curtis Samuel vs. Chiefs?

Samuel was not listed on the injury report this week. Barring any last-minute setbacks, he will play against Kansas City.

We will continue to monitor the Bills’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.

Should you start or sit Curtis Samuel in the AFC Conference Championship Game?

Let’s be honest – are you really considering Curtis Samuel if not for his 55-yard touchdown in a game that was already all but decided in the Wild Card round against the Broncos?

I say no.

Strip away the single catch, and here are his last five games with a fully involved Josh Allen:

• Division Round vs. Ravens: 10 routes, two targets and nine yards
• Wild Card vs. Broncos: 15 routes, two targets and 13 yards
• Week 15 at Lions: 12 routes, two goals and a farm
• Week 14 at Rams: 25 routes, three targets and 15 yards
• Week 13 vs. 49ers: seven routes and zero goals

The outlier touchdown made him a viable option during a postseason slate, and people who even consider Samuel (hell, people who read this part of the article) seem to hold it at too much value in my opinion.

Tre Tucker, Calvin Austin III and Tylan Wallace all had a 55+ yard score this season as well. Have you ever considered calling their numbers?

Unlikely.

Samuel saw his playing time drop from 41.7% in the Wild Card round to 30.5% in the divisional round, and it’s hard to believe Buffalo has him in this spot. Khalil Shakir is the slot in this offense with Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman as more dangerous downfield threats. Sprinkle in the use of James Cook and Dalton Kincaid – you start to run out of options for Samuel to pay his admittedly low price tag.

I will have point options across my lists this week (you should), but Samuel is not on that list.

Looking for starting/his advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Conference Championship Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-eligible player in every game.

Curtis Samuel’s Fantasy Points Projection in the AFC Conference Championship Game

As of Sunday morning, Samuel is projected to score 2.6 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 1.1 receptions for 9.8 yards and 0.1 touchdowns.

Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.

PFN Insight into the Chiefs’ Defence

The Chiefs were a top-10 defense entering Week 18, but saw their ranking tank behind backups flop against the Broncos.

With the varsity team back for the divisional round, Kansas City demonstrated the type of upset this unit can generate at full strength. Steve Spagnuolo’s blitz-heavy game plan overwhelmed the Texans. The Chiefs generated pressure on 73.3% of their blitzes against Houston, the highest of any team to send 15+ blitzes in a game this season.

The only problem area that emerged from the divisional round was the third-down defense. With the exception of Week 18, Kansas City allowed its second-highest third-down conversion rate (58.8%) all season. The only higher rate they allowed was to their AFC Championship Game opponent, when the Bills converted 60% of their third downs in Week 11.

After some shaky weeks and midseason questions, the Chiefs appear to be peaking ahead of their eighth straight AFC title game. It’s a familiar story and may also result in a familiar ending in February.

For more insight into every other team’s defense, go to our PFN Defence+ Metric Analysis.

Curtis Samuels Fantasy Rankings

Our weekly consensus PPR rankings are below – both positional and overall. They were last updated at 11:45 PM ET Saturday, January 25th.

Conference Championship WR PPR Rankings

1) AJ Brown | PHI (vs. WAS)
2) Terry McLaurin | WAS (by PHI)
3) DeVonta Smith | PHI (vs. WAS)
4) Khalil Shakir | BUF (at KC)
5) Xavier Worthy | KC (vs. BUF)
6) Hollywood Brown | KC (vs. BUF)
7) DeAndre Hopkins | KC (vs. BUF)
8) Keon Coleman | BUF (at KC)
9) Dyami Brown | WAS (by PHI)
10) Mack Hollins | BUF (at KC)
11) Amari Cooper | BUF (at KC)
12) Curtis Samuel | BUF (at KC)
13) Olamide Zaccheau’s | WAS (by PHI)
14) JuJu Smith-Schuster | KC (vs. BUF)
15) Jahan Dotson | PHI (vs. WAS)
16) Jamison Crowder | WAS (by PHI)
17) Luke McCaffrey | WAS (by PHI)
18) Justin Watson | KC (vs. BUF)
19) Johnny Wilson | PHI (vs. WAS)
20) Parris Campbell | PHI (vs. WAS)
21) Nikko Remigio | KC (vs. BUF)
22) Aeneas Smith | PHI (vs. WAS)

Bills at Chiefs Trends and Insights

Buffalo Bills

Team: The Bills lost four road games in the regular season — only four Super Bowl champions in the 2000s have done so (2018 Patriots, 2012 Ravens, 2010 Packers and 2006 Colts).

QB: Five times a QB has had four games in a season (playoffs included) with multiple rushing touchdowns and 20 pass attempts.

• 2021 Jalen Hurts
• 2022 Jalen Hurts
• 2023 Jalen Hurts
• 2023 Josh Allen
• 2024 Josh Allen

No player has had five such games in a season.

Crime: The Bills have scored on at least 55% of their possessions six times this season, four of which have come against playoff teams.

Defense: Buffalo allowed Baltimore to pick up 70% of their third downs. That’s the fourth-highest rate the Bills have allowed in the 2000s and is their highest in a winning effort.

Fantasy: Allen has completed over 72% of his passes in both playoff wins – he had three such games in the regular season.

Bet: The Overs are 5-2 in Buffalo’s last seven games, and last week conceded half a point with Baltimore’s last touchdown.

Kansas City Chiefs

Team: Christmas Day 2023 was the date of Kansas City’s last home loss – each of their last six Arrowhead games have been decided by a single possession.

QB: Patrick Mahomes has thrown a total of three touchdown passes in his last two championship games (3.7% of his attempts) after throwing three in each of his first four appearances (8.4%).

Crime: Saturday marked the 10th time this season the Chiefs scored on at least half of their possessions (five-of-nine against Houston).

Defense: Opponents have picked up at least half of their third downs in four straight games against the Chiefs (Texans: 10-of-17).

Fantasy: In the last two games where their starters have been extended, the Chiefs have managed to turn 42 carries into just 119 yards (2.83 yards per carry).

Bet: By taking an intentional safety at the end of their win over the Texans, the Chiefs snapped their six-game playoff shutout streak.