What we learned in Kansas City’s 32-29 win

On By Littum

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  1. The Chiefs’ quest for a three-peat heads to New Orleans. In another instant classic between AFC rivals, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs found a way to win again. The KC offense moved the ball at will in the first half, yielding three touchdowns on four possessions, with only a Mahomes fumble disrupting the string. They hit a break in the third quarter with two punts, allowing the Bills to overcome an 11-point deficit. But in the big moments, KC stepped up big. Mahomes rushed for his second TD of the day early in the fourth quarter to regain the lead. Mahomes then answered a Bills game-tying score with an eight-play, 51-yard field goal drive for the winning score. The star quarterback had the answer time and time again. Whether it was side reinforcement is another submission Xavier Worthy for a chunk of profit, find JuJu Smith-Schuster for a 30-yarder over the middle, or scrambling after a massive first down or a score. The game’s best player always rose to the occasion. Not surprisingly, on the biggest stage, Mahomes is setting season highs in dropback success rate (64.7%) and dropback EPA (+21.5), according to Next Gen Stats. It hasn’t always been pretty this season for KC, but every week the Chiefs simply find a way to win. On Sunday they knew they had to get points to beat Josh Allen and the bills. Andy Reid’s men responded by putting up 32 points, the first time they’ve topped the 30-point plateau all season. Mahomes was sensational on key downs as the Chiefs converted five of nine third downs and their lone fourth-down attempt. That efficiency allows the march to continue. The Chiefs will play for the NFL’s first-ever three-peat in two weeks.
  2. Josh Allen, Bills still can’t conquer their nemesis in the postseason. The enemy remains undefeated. Buffalo fell short again against the kings of the AFC. Allen overcame early jitters to give the Bills a second-half lead and, after the defense surrendered it again, marched down the field to tie it in the fourth quarter. It was all there right in front of Allen. With 3:30 left, Buffalo had the ball down three points. A touchdown drive probably finally thwarts Mahomes and the Chiefs. Buffalo marched near midfield, but on fourth-and-5, Allen bailed right into an oncoming KC blitz — one they could have seen coming from Steve Spagnuolo — and prayed. Dalton Kincaidthat opened deep, couldn’t get back to secure the catchable wobbler. After that, Sean McDermott’s defense couldn’t get off the field and gave up two first downs as the Chiefs iced the AFC Championship. It’s a brutal reality for Allen, who played well, avoided turnovers (though he almost had a few) and played late. Even in a season where he made as many strides as signal callers, the result is the same: failure in KC Buffalo heads into another offseason with questions about whether it will ever get over that playoff hump. Or, like Sisyphus, the Bills are doomed to eternal punishment, watching their postseason dreams roll back downhill every January.
  3. The Chiefs D stuffs Allen repeatedly. Chiefs bullied the thug at close range. KC stopped Josh Allen short of the line to win on three QB sneaks, the most runs by a defense against sneaks in a game in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). Steve Spagnuolo’s D was ready for the Allen sneak and was as successful as any team at slowing it down. KC gave up some big plays, but when it needed a stop, it got it. The Chiefs generated two three-and-outs and turned over Buffalo on downs near midfield early in the fourth quarter. Then Spags turned up the heat, sped up Allen’s process and forced the incompletion on the Bills’ final drive. When in doubt, Spagnuolo will blitz. The Bills knew this, yet it caused Allen to panic and make a plea. The Chiefs pestered Allen, creating pressure on 45.9% of his dropbacks, the most pressure the Bills QB faced all season. Allen completed just five of 14 passes for 66 yards and a touchdown under pressure. Pressure bursts pipes, especially in Kansas City in the playoffs.
  4. Bill’s defense is rolled over. In the end, Sean McDermott’s defense was no match for Patrick Mahomes. Buffalo had zero answers early as Mahomes picked Buffalo apart like he had answers to the test early. If it hadn’t been for an errant pass by the KC QB that Buffalo recovered, things could have settled down early. In the first half, the Bills allowed 17 first downs and 217 total yards. The Chiefs didn’t even manage a third down on their first two possessions. Cornerback Christian Benford‘s early concussion stung. Previous first round pick Kaiir Elam was forced into duty and fought mightily. Mahomes relentlessly took on the third-year corner in the first half. Buffalo’s D stood tall in the third quarter but had no answers in the fourth, conceding scores every time the offense answered. On the final drive, the D’s couldn’t get the ball back to Allen for a final plea, giving up two easy first downs to seal the loss. The pass rush picked a lousy time to disappear, creating pressure on just six Mahomes passes (26.5%), per . NGS, with two sacks. It’s telling that a Chiefs offense that struggled much of the season had one of its most efficient nights of the year and its highest scoring output.
  5. Rematch of Super Bowl LVII. Kansas City heads to New Orleans to face the Philadelphia Eagles, a rematch of an epic Super Bowl LVII game – a 38-35 Chiefs win. Two years ago, we were treated to a high-scoring affair with a rushing Patrick Mahomes overcoming an ankle injury to run for the game-winning field goal. It was a heavyweight fight, with Regret hurts and Mahome’s trade punch. What might the revenge have in store? While shift schedules have changed — Kadarius Toney played a key role in that game, Saquon Barkley wasn’t in Philly etc. — the main players are back: Mahomes, Hurts, AJ Brown, Travis Kelce, Darius Slay, Chris JonesAndy Reid, Nick Sirianni and on and on. The Eagles will look to avenge that loss. The Chiefs will try to end their three-peat with wins over Philly. New Orleans, here we come.

Next Gen Stats Insight for Bills-Chiefs (via NFL Pro): The Bills played man coverage on nearly half of Patrick Mahomes’ dropbacks (47.1%), the defense’s highest rate across nine career games against Mahomes. Mahomes generated a +19.3 EPA against the Bills in man coverage, completing 12 of 15 for 169 yards and a TD.

NFL Research: Patrick Mahomes had the sixth fourth-quarter comeback of his playoff career, breaking a tie with Joe Montana for second all-time, trailing only Tom Brady’s nine.