January 27 cool breeze to start the week and warms up with rain by Friday

27 January 2025

Monday morning report

After reaching the upper 40s yesterday, temps have dropped into a deep freeze again this morning. But the weather is more common for our region.

What a difference a week can make. Last week we were under the grip of the polar air mass with a cold weather advisory. After spending most of the week below freezing, plenty of waterways have frozen over. Now we are seeing the thaw and it is important to note that the ice will break up and slowly south.

Today’s picture

The arctic air is gone, but the residual effects of ice still linger. It is worth considering that the ice over the northern Chesapeake Bay and Susquehanna River will break up and flow south during the week.

This was sunrise on Sunday in Edgemere, MD.

This week begins seasonably cool, then transitions to a mild air flow as the storm track shifts. This brings us rain on Friday. We know there will be a storm, but how it behaves is still not locked in. One model moves it out on Saturday, while another delays its arrival and allows the cold air to catch up, ending with a wintry mix on Saturday.

Morning temperatures

Morning surface weather

Afternoon high temps

Climate data: Baltimore

Today, January 27

Sunrise at 7:17

Sunset at 17.22

Normal low in Baltimore: 25ºF

Record 3ºF in 1987

Normal high in Baltimore: 43ºF

Record 72ºF 1944; 1974

Baltimore seasonal snow

8.9”

Tuesday weather

Morning

Radar simulation: 7 a.m. to 3 p.m

A line of snow showers falls to the south.

13.00 Snapshot

Here we see the thin line of snow showers and flurries into southern PA. The expected plot fades this snow…but flurries may still reach parts of central Maryland with this limit. No stickage is expected.

Afternoon temperatures

Wider view Tuesday to Thursday

We will be on the edge of a cool pocket of air … This will keep us breezy and more clouds north/west of Baltimore as Lake Effect Snow passes through our northern neighbor.

Snapshots

Tuesday morning

Wednesday afternoon

Storm animation: Thursday to Saturday afternoon

This is the ECMWF solution: I switched to this for reliability in more common weather patterns. It brings rain on Friday and then ends on Saturday. Below is the GFS which is slower and colder.

Friday afternoon

Moderate to heavy rain builds throughout the region.

GFS model:

Friday afternoon

This is a slower solution that keeps the rain off until later in the day/night.

Saturday afternoon

This slower solution allows the colder air to catch up and drop the snow south from central Pennsylvania…it ends with a few hours of a wintry mix in central Maryland.

NOAA Temperature Outlook: Days 6 to 10

The wave of milder temps for the eastern United States, while the cold air begins to embrace the northwest.

7 day forecast

The week starts on the edge of a cold air mass to the north and ends with another after a storm. In between warm midweek and then our next storm starts with rain on Friday. The end on Saturday is uncertain with a mix or not. It’s just something to keep an eye on.

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Latest snow reports

Snow reports this season

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January 19 Snow Report

January 11 Snow Report

January 6 Snow Report

Earlier snow

November 22 Snow Report

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See also

Arctic outbreak for January

In case you missed it, here’s my detailed report from December 30th on why this is a big deal!

My winter outlook

My Winter Outlook report

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Faith in the Flakes December 5th origin story

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Restoring my message about dyslexia

I am aware that there are some spelling and grammar mistakes and occasional other errors. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer errors I might miss. I’ve made a few public statements over the years, but if you’re new here you might have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out in my sophomore year at Cornell University. That didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it this far without knowing and not to let it be a crutch going forward. It was Mark Wysocki and he was absolutely correct! I miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I can also make mistakes in the forecast. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All maps and information are accurate. The ‘worded’ things can get sticky. There has been no editor to check my work while you write and to have it ready to air in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of web team It helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. It could be after you read this. I accept this and maybe prove what you read is really from me…it’s part of my charm. #Fitf