ESA is actively monitoring Asteroid 2024 YR4

• Asteroid 2024 YR4 Have a nearly 99% chance to safely pass the Earth on December 22, 2032, but a possible influence cannot yet be completely excluded.
• The asteroid is estimated to be between 40 m and 100 m wide.
• It is too early to determine how accurately on Earth a potential impact can occur.
• Two non-approved international asteroid response groups are considering their next step.
• As our asteroid examination technology improves, we are likely to discover an increasing number of items passing close to the ground that we would have missed in the past.

What do we know?

Near-Earth Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27, 2024 on Asteroid Terrestrial-Impact Last Alert System (Atlas) Telescope in Río Hurtado, Chile.

Shortly after his discovery, Asteroid warning systems determined that the object had a very small chance to potentially influence the Earth on December 22, 2032. 2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 40 m and 100 m wide. An asteroid of this size affects on average soil every few thousand years and can cause serious damage to a local region.

As a result, the object rose to the top of ESAS Asteroid Risk List. Since the beginning of January, astronomers have performed priority follow -up observations using telescopes around the world and using the new data to improve our understanding of the size and course of the asteroid.

From January 29, 2025, ESA estimates that the probability that Asteroid 2024 YR4 can affect the Earth on December 22, 2032, is 1.2%. This result is in accordance with independent estimates made by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (Cnees) and Neodys.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is now assessed to level 3 on Torino Impact Hazard Scale: A close meeting guaranteeing attention from astronomers and the public. It is important to remember that an asteroid’s impact probability often rises first before they quickly fall to zero after further observations. For an explanation of why this happens, watch the video below:

What happens next?

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is estimated to probably be greater than 50 m and has an impact probability higher than 1% at some point within the next 50 years. It therefore meets all the criteria needed to activate the two non-approved asteroid reaction groups: International Asteroid Warning Network (Iawn) and Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (Smpag).

The international asteroid warning network

IAWN, President of NASA, is responsible for coordinating the international group of organizations involved in asteroid tracking and characterization. If relevant, IWN would develop a strategy to help world governments in the analysis of the consequences of asteroid influences and in the planning of any necessary refund reactions.

ESA is a member of IAWN and now coordinates further observations and regularly updates its risk assessment.

The course of the asteroid around the sun is elongated (eccentric). It is currently moving away from the ground in almost a straight line, making it difficult to accurately determine its orbit by studying how its trajectory curves over time.

Over the next few months, the asteroid will begin to fade out of the view from the ground. During this time, ESA will coordinate observations of the asteroid with increasingly powerful telescopes culminating with the use of European Southern Observatory‘s very large telescope in Chile to collect as much data as possible.

It is possible that the Asteroid 2024 YR4 will fade from the sight before we are fully able to exclude any chance of influence in 2032. In this case, the asteroid will probably remain at ESA’s risk until it becomes observable again in 2028.

The advisory group for space mission planning

SMPAG, President of ESA, is responsible for facilitating the international exchange of information, developing opportunities for collaborative research and missions and implementing near-earth lens threat-limiting planning activities related to Asteroid 2024 YR4.

The group calls on its existing scheduled meeting in Vienna next week to determine its next steps. If the impact of asteroid remains above the egg of 1%, SMPAG will give recommendations to the UN and may begin to evaluate the different options for a spacecraft -based response to the potential danger.

Note to media

For more information please contact:

ESA media relations
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