How many goals does Alex Ovechkin have? Tracking his hunt to catch Wayne Gretzky

On January 31, 2025By Littum

Alex Ovechkin will almost certainly break Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal scoring record. Ovechkin began this season with 853 goals – 41 shy for Gretzky’s 894 – and started off a good start before missing time with an injury in December and slowing down a bit since his return. But it really isn’t a question about if Ovechkin becomes the target -scored king but when. By preventing a serious injury, Ovechkin will set the record this season or the beginning of next season.

We track Ovechkin’s hunting and try to determine the game where he is most likely to break the record. Below you will find details – updated daily – about where he stands, his latest goal, his odds of breaking the record this season and in what game, and more.

Ovechkin’s last goal: No. 876 on January 30 against the senators

Ovechkin scored a power-play goal in the second period to get the capitals back within one. It was his sixth power-play goal this season and 318. Of his career.

Ovechkin needed 42 goals this season to surpass Gretzky for constantly record of 895 goals.

The following histogram shows that Ovechkins are likely to end at the end of the season based on 1,000 simulations of the rest of the season. The simulation factors for Ovechkin’s expected scoring pace (36.8 goals per 82), which he plays with and where.

Based on these factors, Ovechkin currently has a 12 percent chance of ending the season 2024-25 as NHL’s scoring leader at all times. Ovechkin’s current probably finish is 35 goals, leaving him on 888 career goals.

Ovechkin started the season with a 22 percent chance of breaking Gretzky’s goal record this season. After a warm start, Ovechkin’s odds quickly shot up thanks to a hot stretch, scoring 13 goals in 11 games. With 15 goals in 18 games, Ovechkin’s odds of 65 percent peaked on November 18.

These odds fell slowly with every game Ovechkin missed due to a knee injury until all the progress of his hot streak was deleted. Ovechkin’s odds fell down to 15 percent after missing 16 games and has said further as he has so far been unable to keep the necessary pace.

What makes Ovechkin break Gretzky’s goal record this season, so special is that Ovechkin would do so at the same seasonal rate as Gretzky did. This is Ovechkin’s 20th season in the NHL – the same amount that Gretzky played to reach 894. The two stand alone not only in their goal in all but also at the speed at which they have reached these heights.

Because it is likely that Ovechkin does not become NHL’s leading goal scorer in all the time, the most likely game Ovechkin is breaking the record this season is the last game of the season.

Ovechkin has a 3.1 percent chance of scoring his 895. Goal on April 17, an outdoor match against Pittsburgh Penguins. His odds rise as he gets closer to the end of the season with the earliest option based on 1,000 simulations coming on March 15 against San Jose Sharks.

Everything in between has a chance.

Methodology

The likelihood of Ovechkin Breaking target record is based on a Monte Carlo Simulation of the rest of the season.

The simulator estimates the likelihood of Ovechkin scores in a given game based on his expected output, his opponent’s defensive strength, and whether the game is at home or on the road. Ovechkin’s projected output is based on his last three seasons, weighted for recency and regressed to the average of players playing a similar amount of minutes.

This projected output, adjusted for opponent and venue, is then used to calculate the odds that Ovechkin scored a goal (or more) using the Poisson distribution.

Ryan Best and John Bradford contributed to this article.

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