What is Groundhog Day and when does Phil get out of his hole?

Phil’s faithful supporters travel far and wide, waiting for the big day for hours in under -free temperatures to experience the more than century -old tradition of a Groundhog’s reported performance at Gobbler’s dial in Punxsutawney.

Last year Phil did not see his shadow after he got out of his hole, which means “an early spring was on the way.”

According to some historians, Groundhog Day dates back to the mid-1800s and has European roots.

“The Groundhog tradition comes from beliefs associated with Candlemas Day and the days of the early Christians in Europe, and for centuries the custom was to get the priests to bless candles and distribute them to the people,” Punxsutawney Groundhog Club Club was says. “Even then it marked a milestone in the winter and the weather that day was important.”

A reference was found in a diary from 1841 to Groundhog Weather forecasts in early February among families of German descent in Morgantown, Pa., According to the late Don Yoder, a University of Pennsylvania professor, whose book from 2003 on Groundhog Day explored the Celtic connection. The annual ritual is stuck and continues to today.

This quirky, happy tradition exploded in popularity with the 1993 release of the classic comedy movie “Groundhog Day” with Bill Murray and Andie Macdowell starring.

Like the original forecasts, Phil has got most of the limelight associated with predicting the weather. But over the years, many other states have turned to their own weather -expensive critters.

Massachusetts’ own official state Groundhog, Mrs. G. has predicted for the last several years, although last year she was unable to make her traditional look outdoors due to some hair loss, according to Mass Audubon.

The chances are uneven that Phil will see his shadow this year. In fact, he has seen it more often than not, based on historical items.

“If you go for statistics and history, it’s about 80 percent of the time,” I see my shadow, then six weeks more in the winter it will be, “said Thomas Dunkel, president of Punxsutawney Groundhog Club. “But you never know. For the past 10 years we have had more ‘no shadows’ than we have had for any 10-year period in the Groundhog Club. “

Sky will partly be mostly cloudy with temperatures in the mid -20s around sunrise Sunday in Punxsutawney. High pressure will be hanging over western Pennsylvania, which will help keep rainfall for the big event. Piloses winds up to 20 miles per hour, the wind sends chills into teens.

But how accurate are these members of the squirrel family? Ms. G’s managers say she has been on target 64 percent of the time.

Phil? Well, not to very.

ONE study Published in the summer of 2021 in the Journal of the American Meteorological Society analyzed 530 unique Groundhog forecasts across 33 locations and found that early spring was properly predicted 50 percent of the time.

Scientists said no soil hook predicted the arrival of spring with any “statistical significance.”

NOAAs National Center for Environmental Information also conducted its own study And found that Phil was only 40 percent of the time from 2012-2021.

Last winter, for example, Phil predicted an early spring. But New England had its reasonable proportion of snowfall in March and even some snow in early April.

Longer winter or not, this season has so far been colder and cunning than last winter for New Englanders, although we are still continuing the overall trend of mild winters that New England has seen in recent decades.

“This winter has been much closer to a typical winter season throughout the region, with more cold air pockets moving through the region and producing more snowfall,” said Globe Lead Meteorologist Ken Mahan. “It has been much closer to an average winter with temperatures of or slightly below average, a big difference from last year’s record pace.

“When we look at February, we probably see an active weather pattern, especially across the inner New England, with more snow and a little rain.”

Phil and his partner Phyllis welcomed two furry babies shortly after last year’s Groundhog Day. They could eventually serve as the next forecasters.

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Marianne Mizera can be reached at [email protected]. Follow her @Maremizera.