February temperature prospects trends warmer in the south, east, but there is a catch

February’s temperature forecast looks very different from January’s sustained cold, but there is a late month Wild Card that can change it, according to an updated Outlook released Friday by Weather Company and atmospheric G2.

What February looks like: For the month as a whole, most of the east and south are expected to be hotter than average, especially from the middle Atlantic and southeast to coast and southern Texas. However, a colder February is expected in northwestern, Northern Rockies and Northern Plains.

Since the card is a unified snapshot for all 28 days of the month, it masks some notable weeks of oscillations for the week, which we will discuss later.

How the temperatures of the month can develop:

• February should generally start colder from the northwest to the northern plains and occasionally into the large lakes and northeast when some cold air in western Canada sweeps over the northern level. Meanwhile, the country’s southern level should be warmer than usual for this time of year.

• However, there is a pattern change that can happen around the middle of the month, according to Todd Crawford, vice president of meteorology at atmospheric G2.

• “On the way into the back half of February, this represents a colder risk with a low probability,” said Crawford, referring to the influence of this potential pattern change on temperatures in the east and south.

How the pattern change could make it colder later in February: Patterns of the jet stream, including sharp south, throw themselves and domes with high pressure, help control storm systems that either deliver or deflate cold air.

From the time this article was published, computer forecast models suggested a dome of high pressure known as a Greenland block could be formed in the middle of the month. When that happens, the jet stream is forced to take a nose to the south across the eastern United States and deliver more sustained cold there.

At the same time, a positive phase of the American pattern in the Pacific North could move another dome of high pressure near or right on the west coast.

If this pattern change happens, it can move the country to a warm west – cold east and south scenarios until the end of February. So it may be a good idea to enjoy your thaw in February early in the month while you can.

Cold January: This February forecast looks quite different from January, as the card below of January Temperature Anomalies (through the 27th) shows.

According to AG2’s Todd Crawford, it was America’s coldest January since 2014, it’s January when the “Polar Vortex” first entered pop culture Lexicon.

The month contained four large winter storms in less than three weeks, starting with Winter Storm Blair and punctured by the historic Gulf Coast Winter Storm Enzo.