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Groundhog Day is this Sunday when we turn to a Groundhog to indicate that an early spring can come. However, Phil’s record is not large with accuracy only approx. 39% of the time.
As the country enters the last weeks of the meteorological winter, there are very few signs of old man winter across a large part of the nation, with many wondering if the sights of the season will return.
According to the latest climate prospects from NOAA, the answer to this question is a bit complicated, as several atmospheric oscillations that affect everything from moisture patterns to temperature changes across the country are constantly expected to change in February.
While the general expectation is that the second month of the year should be warmer than average, with almost normal rainfall in most areas, there are important regional warnings to monitor.
The best chances of warmer weather will be in the southern United States, while the Northwest Pacific and Society along the US-Canadian border are more likely to see additional rounds with readings below average.
With regard to rainfall, Pacific Northwest and Midwest are expected to see accumulations above average, while Texas and Southeast are likely to experience drier than normal conditions.
Where does tornadoes most likely occur in February?
February Temperature and Preputy Views
With widespread temperatures in the 60s, 70s and even 80s in the forecast, February starts with record heat, which gets questions about whether the cold air in winter will ever return.
Historically, February is the second -hardest month of meteorological winter and has been known for producing significant winter storms, but no one is on the horizon in the short and medium term.
While new snowfall certainly remains an option, there are some clues to help predict how winter rainfall most likely occurs.
Temperature prospects for the beginning of February.
For example, snowfall along the Gulf Coast – like the rare event seen in places like New Orleans and Pensacola in January – will not repeat itself this year.
The event is considered an event that is once in life, and the storm track remains too far north to bring enough Arctic air to Gulf Coast. However, the region may still experience cool temperatures, though nothing as extreme as what was seen in late January.
Similarly, the I-95 corridor in the Northeast, which has not yet seen a significant blizzard this winter, is unlikely to experience one in February. Temperature and moisture patterns are likely to continue to swing too significantly to any major snow events.
On the other hand, areas of Rockies and the Northwest Pacific, where a colder air is expected, and there is enough humidity in place, more likely to see snowfall from incoming storm systems.
The midwest could also see rainfall in the form of snow when storm systems collide with enough cold air.
Cities such as Minneapolis, Chicago and Detroit as well as interior parts of northeastern and New England may experience plowing snowfall in the coming weeks.
Prepuffs for the first days of February.
How accurate are Punxsutawney Phil’s Groundhog Day Forests?
How’s winter going down the recordbooks?
If winter was to end after the first two months of the 2024-25 season, it would be largely considered as average compared to over 100 years of records.
There are some notable exceptions with Phoenix on track for its hottest winter on record as well as several cities in California.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, society in Mid-Atlantic and the Delmarva Peninsula is experiencing one of the coldest winters on the record.
Temperature ranking in the first two months of winter 2024-25.
(Fox Weather)
February plays a key role in designing how the season is remembered.
A hot February would reinforce the trend with increasingly mild winters, while a cold month could leave a lasting impression of Arctic blasts and record -breaking cold.
Meteorological spring officially begins on March 1 and runs through the end of May.
According to Noaa’s latest seasonal views, most of the nation is expected to experience a hot spring, with rainfall above average continues around the big lakes.
