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Researchers have cast doubt on the reliability of America’s most famous rodent defense – whose seemingly ability to predict how long winter lasts forms a sacred tradition in the United States.
Punxsutawney Phil, famous of the 1993 movie Groundhog Day, attracts thousands of visitors every February 2 to Pennsylvania city, from which he takes his name.
The US state’s tradition of using a great rodent to predict the seasons dates back to Pennsylvania Dutch belief that if a soil left his hole and then its shade, it would shed back inside and winter would go for six more weeks.
Professional forecasters have warned that Phil’s prediction on Sunday is likely to be far away from the brand. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has concluded that only 35% of Phil’s forecasts have proven to be accurate – place him on a low 17. Compared to other rodent forecasts.
Staten Island Chuck, a New York-based Groundhog, tops the rankings with an impressive 85% accuracy on his forecasts.
Phil and his predecessors, also called Phil, have predicted since 1887.
According to items dating back to 1887, Phil has predicted winter more than 100 times. Ten years were lost because no records were held, the organizers say.
