Sergei Pavlovich vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruk: Odds, Full Fighting Example and Prediction | UFC Saudi Arabia

On February 2, 2025By Littum

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Heavyweight Weeks Sergei Pavlovich vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruk goes to war this weekend (Saturday, February 1, 2025) in UFC Saudi Arabia from Anena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

It is difficult to describe the loss of Aura, which Pavlovich has suffered in only two matches. The terrifying Russian boxer saw each part of a future champion in his six-match knockout line and refused to let a single enemy escape the first round. To be blown up by Tom Aspinall could be forgiven enough, especially when he managed to stun the current temporary king as well, but to be picked apart by former teammate Alexander Volkov in three full rounds?

No one is scared anymore.

Rozenstruk has nevertheless entered the cage with lots of huge men. The former professional kickboxer has won three of its last four, most recently Pummeling Tai Tuivasa. In general, he seems to be better, so maybe the 36-year-old veteran hasn’t hit his ceiling yet?

Let’s take a closer look at the bets of the bet and strategic keys for each athlete:

Pavlovich vs. Rozenstruk betting odds

Sergei Pavlovich Victory: -305
Sergei Pavlovich via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Sergei Pavlovich via submission: TBD
Sergei Pavlovich via decision: TBD
Jairzinho Rozenstruk Victory: +245
Jairzinho Rozenstruk via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
Jairzinho Rozenstruk Via Submission: TBD
Jairzinho Rozenstruk via decision: TBD
Odds via Draftking’s sports book

How Pavlovich wins

Pavlovich is a tank. Despite a background in Greek-Roman wrestling and Kamp Sambo, Pavlovich wins more typical matches by clubing his enemies in unconsciousness with his heavy right hand.

Why was it not able to land against Volkov? Pavlovich really failed to close the distance of his slim opponent. Probably Rozenstruk will try to hire a similar game plan and try to strict Pavlovich at a distance, even though he is not as rangy as “Drago.”

The keys to avoid a repeated match are feints and footwork. Pavlovich can’t just run forward on a straight line by a dangerous Counter Puncher … Yes, okay, maybe he can, but it would make the result much more of a coin flip on who lands first. If he instead takes the time to cut off the cage and Feint/Jab Rozenstrik against the fence, he stands a much better chance to safely score the same knockout.

How Rozenstruk wins

Rozenstruk is an artificial kickboxing veteran. He stands out by playing the long game, stirring and supporting his opponents with quick jabs and light kicks. Then, when they return, he puts them down with a check hook or counting combination.

It is a fantastic strategy against Pavlovich. The problem is the Francis Ngannou match, where the “predator” bulldozated rozenstruk by charging through his half-overpower with a very real flash of heavy shoots. Ngannou and Pavlovich have a similar level of world -changing power, and Rozenstrik does not want to be blown up by a wild combo again.

To avoid this fate, Rozenstruk has to find a way to stop Pavlovich’s progress, which will buy him time to line up with larger counter shoots. Volkov did it with Snappy Front Spark and counts right hands, but the body’s jab may end up with Rozenstrik’s chosen weapons. If he can shoot a rigid jab into the chest at Pavlovich as the Russian progresses, it will help keep him and the clubing right hand out of reach.

Rozenstruk will have to stand a little in the process, but it is a better recipe for success than sliding backwards and being caught at the end of a flurry.

UFC FIGHT NIGHT: Pavlovich against Blaydes

Pavlovich vs. Rozenstruik -Foresking

Even without his momentum, it’s hard to go against Sergei Pavlovich here.

Pavlovich will be the bigger, faster and more powerful man. At heavy weight, these physical factors are more often decisions. Volkov may have been able to avoid his haymakers, but “Drago” also had a significant height advantage and lots of training experience to help him. Rozenstruk does not have any of these edges, and he has never turned out to be a particularly artificial defensive fighter.

In a heavy weight firefighter you might as well sit with the guy who brings a bazooka.

Prediction: Pavlovich via knockout