Mid -Ue’s glaze event very likely Wednesday to Thursday

Sunday evening 2nd February 2025

I was very careful about choosing my words in this title. I think we will have icy weather in the middle of this week. However, the term of a ‘storm’ and the specific timing is still quite subjective. Then the winter prospects from Punxsutawney Phil were today, but he called for more winter and this is just in line. For the time being, I will refer to it as a weather event. ‘

I will explain the cold air dam and exceeding the event that will lead to the freezing rain. I am very convinced that it will occur. The details are a little less secure now because there is dependent on the computer model’s guidance leaving some questions about timing and location. However, most of our region will be affected at a time later on Wednesday in the early Thursday this week. Yes, there are several winter events created after this, but my focus in this report is in the short term.

Important Note: Once we get in cold air dampening with ice cream, it is very difficult for models to predict when it lifts and thaw.

Wednesday morning preview: before the ice

High pressure and very cold air in New England are expected to push south through Pennsylvania, Maryland and parts of Virginia. This low and dense air mass holds close to the surface between the mountains and a place near the coast.

The evolving rain arrives from the southwest. This wet and warmer air mass will rise and over the cold air. This is where snow, gossip and freezing rain will set up.

Winter precipitation

The winter blend of gossip or freezing rain depends on the thickness of hot air in the middle of the atmosphere. An inversion is a layer of hot air squeezed between colder clouds and colder soil. Snow can form in the clouds, then fall and melt and then have a chance to freeze again on the way down.

Sleet = Melted snow, freezes to the ice cream pellets on the way down.

Freezing rain = Melted snow cannot abstain in time, but will be in contact with the ground. It falls like rain, then ices on the surface of everything it touches.

Colder than average water

I will also show why the cold air this time can set and keep deeper than we can normally expect. Cold air is often wedged between the mountains and the chesapeake bay. Currently, Bay Waters is just above freezing, which can enable the colder air to establish in several areas.

Reminder that last week the bay was frozen to the Bay Bridge near Annapolis. Although thawed, the water is almost 32F to 33f.

Computer model contrast

In short, I usually show three most important global computer models when we have a storm 3 or more days away. In the last few months here has been the quick sheet:

ECMWF– The European model is usually the best artist. However, it fell afterwards with the Arctic air and appeared poorly in our last event on January 19th.

Gfs – american model Has been behind the euro, but it worked much better in the event 19 January. This still has some advantages and is worth discussing at the top of the conversation with the euro.

Canadian model has routinely worked best when they are in the middle of an Arctic pattern. Since we are not now, this is set aside.

Snapshots: GFS vs. ECMWF model

Wednesday afternoon

GFS brings lightly snow and gossip much earlier than the euro, which keeps us dry longer.

Thursday early in the morning

Both models have most of the region in freezing rain. The time of glaze overnight through dawn allows for full influence on roads and collection on trees and power lines. This is not a good setup.

Thursday sunrise

GFS holds the cold and ice further above metro areas in central Maryland. The euro, on the other hand, lifts the warmer air north of Baltimore at dawn. Again, this may be too early.

Wind back to upper air temperatures (850MB = 5,000 ft)

Monday afternoon

We will be in hot air with surface temperatures in the 50s.

Animation Monday afternoon to Wednesday Morning

Colder air spreads south.

Wednesday morning

The cloud line at the cloud line will be in Virginia.

Surface temperatures

Based on this model, the 20s will affect most, if not all, from Maryland. Note the zero numbers below at the source of New York and New England.

Repeat of the surface weather set up

Storm Animation Wed is for the evening

Precipitation distribution

Here is the 4-panel forecast for totals of all types of rainfall expected.

Snapshots:

I jump until Thursday morning because this has more agreement. I’m still unsure of Wednesday early, shown by GFS, but the icing on the cake has great confidence.

Thursday morning

Yes, it will be icy. But how far south will it establish and where will the thawing line be?

The GFS model has a longer duration storm. It lasts the cold longer, while the ECMWF model shows a retreat of the freezer line north of Baltimore to PA at dawn.

GFS model

ECMWF model

It is important to note that even if this is close to being correct, ICE needs time to thaw. A shift to regular rain and temperatures above 32F will still result in remaining ice.

Which one to believe?

Again, I’m not sure. I lean against GFS later ends on the glaze … keeps the cold longer based on:

• Cold soil
• Temps today (Sunday) verified colder than forecast
• Colder water
• Models often struggle with cold air damping set up … and brings in the thawing too early. I’ve seen most years I’ve been predicting here since 1997.

Winter precipitation potential forecasts

Gfs snow

This is a low self -confidence and part of low influence. If this happens it would be later in the afternoon or evening Wednesday.

GFS SLEET

GFS freezes rain

ECMWF freezing rain

Last thoughts:

A glaze of ice = travel problems.

0.10 ”ice = moderate glaze, and some branches may fall

0.25 “to 0.50″+ ice = trees and power lines begin to have more breaks. This would be widespread disturbance.

Thicker ice cream also means a longer time to thaw. So temps could heat, but a few extra hours would be needed to melt to allow for safe travel.

In short, this is the worst weather to travel in, you can’t play in it, and there’s a great chance of school influences on Thursday.

I am leaning towards more influence South since the trend this winter has favored more southern areas. There is still some time to sort the specific area of ​​influence.

Subscribe to E -Mail warnings

Weather Posts directly to your inbox

Sign up and be the first to know!

La Nina Advisory January 2025

Full report

My winter prospects

My Winter Outlook -Report

See also

Latest snow reports

Snow reports this season

Click the cards for the full report.

19 January Snow Report

11th January Snow Report

6. January Snow Report

Previous snow

November 22 Snow Report

Fitf -Gear for sale

In the event that you missed this

The belief in the flags 5. December Origin History

Share your thoughts and best weather photos/videos, or just keep in touch with social media.

Plan a weather -based vot -collection

Difficult weather: Storm Smart October and next spring winter weather Fitf (Believe in the Flows): November to March Click to see more and send a request for your school.

Thanks:

Baltimore Magazine -Readers Choice Best of Baltimore

Maryland Trek 11 Day 7 Completed Saturday 10 August

We raised over $ 104,000 for just in power children – and are collecting more and more more

The annual event: Hiking and Cycling 329 miles in 7 days between the top of Wisp to Ocean City.

Every day we honor a child and their family’s cancer journey.

Fundraising is for power children only: financing free holistic programs. I have never and will never take a penny. It’s all for our nonprofit to work.

Click here or the image to donate:

Restoring my message about dyslexia

I am aware that there are some spelling and grammar letters and occasional other errors. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer errors I might miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out in my second year at Cornell University. That did not prevent me from getting my meteorological degree and being the first to get AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had reached it so far without knowing and not letting it be a crutch in the future. It was Mark Wysocki and he was totally correct! I miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The auto -corrective spell check on my computer sometimes makes an injustice to make it worse. I can also make a mistake in the forecast. No one is perfect to predict the future. All maps and information are accurate. The ‘worded’ things can be sticky. There has been no editor who can check my work while writing And to have it ready to send out in a news -worthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of Web team It helps me preserve this site. She has undertaken to edit typos when she is available. It could be after you read this. I accept this and might prove what you read is really from me … It’s part of my charm. #Fitf