Facts -Control: Canada accounts for only 0.2% of the US Border Feall seizure

Washington
Cnn
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President Donald Trump and his administration have made a number of complaints about Canada to justify his plan to impose 25% duty on most imports from Canada (with 10% tariff rates on energy gate) from Tuesday. Most often, Trump has quoted the US trade deficit with Canada, trading in Fentanyl from Canada to the United States, illegal migration over the border of Canada-US and Canada’s low defense level.

However, Trump has wildly exaggerated the size of this trade deficit. He has not mentioned that Canada is responsible for a smaller percentage of illegal fentanylimport to the United States and a small percentage of us meet with migrants. And while Canada’s sustained failure to fulfill concernTrump has sometimes exaggerated the extent of the problem.

Here is a fact control.

Trump has gathered the Canadian border and the Mexican border when talking about illegal fentanylimport. The day after his inauguration in January, for example said“Fentanyl coming through Canada is massive. Fentanyl that comes through Mexico is massive. ”

But there is a massive difference between the extent of the problem at the two limits.

Federal Statistics show US border authorities seized 21,889 pounds of fentanyl in the financial year 2024. Of this amount, 43 pounds were seized at the Canadian border – approx. 0.2% – compared to 21,148 pounds at the Mexican border, approx. 96.6%.

There is no indication of any significant change in the first three months of the financial year 2025 (October 2024 through December 2024). Of the 4,537 pounds of fentanyl seized by US border authorities during this period, 10 pounds were seized, approx. 0.2%, at the Canadian limit, while 4,409 pounds, approx. 97.2%, was seized at the Mexican border.

It is true that the amount of fentanyl that was seized at the Canadian border increased in the financial year 2024. Only 2 pounds were seized in the financial year 2023 and 14 pounds were seized in the financial year 2022. And of course even small quantities Fentanyl can be fatal.

Yet report didn’t even use the word “Canada.” The mentioned Mexico 86 times.

As the New York Times reported Last week is the Top -Artic Congress Commission for the fight against synthetic opioid trading said In a 2022 report, primarily based on data on seizures, “Canada is not known to be an important source of fentanyl, other synthetic opioids or precursor chemicals to the United States.” While the report warned that “Canadian criminal groups have equipment, facilities and expertise to increase the supply of illegally manufactured fentanyl,” it also said that “illegal operators in this country so far do not appear to export large quantities of bulk fentanyl or counterfeit tablets, as opposed to Mexico, as it appears from seizures.

Aaron McCrorie, Vice President of Intelligence and Enforcement at Canada’s Border Agency, told The Canadian Broadcasting Corp. In December 2024: “As a source of fentanyl to the United States: It is dynamic and things always change, but our assessment right now is that we are not in any way a significant source of fentanyl going to the United States. “McCrorie said that as shown by Drug Enforcement Administration reports:” Obviously, the large, far majority of fentanyl that goes to the United States comes from Mexico. ”

In response to Trump’s concerns announced the Canadian government a number of different measures In December to try to combat drug trafficking into the United States, including more funding for technological detection tools and dog teams.

Trump has also refused to distinguish the Canadian border from the Mexican border over the migration topic. In the same event the day after his inauguration said“They have allowed – both of them, Canada a lot – they have allowed millions and millions of people to enter our country who should not be here. They could have stopped them, and they didn’t. ”

However, the Canadian border is the site of far fewer crossings than the Mexican border, even after a bit-era tip in the crossings from the north.

In the financial year 2024, There was About 2.9 million nationwide “meetings” with migrants from US border authorities. Of these, 198,929 were meetings – approx. 6.9% – at the Canadian limit. And of the approx. 1.6 million US border patrol meets with migrants in places other than legal entry gates, only 23,721 or approx. 1.5%were at the northern border.

There was a marked leap during the Biden administration in the number of migrants trying to cross into the United States from Canada, both in legal ports and between these ports. The number of meetings between northern ports was only 2,238 in the financial year 2022, so the 2024 number, 23,721, is more than 10 times the number only two years before.

The increase is driven by one wave In the number of migrants from distant countries, especially including India flying to Canada and then trying to cross to the United States.

Trump has repeatedly inflated the size of the US trade deficit with Canada. He said Friday, as he has done before, we have about a $ 200 billion deficit with Canada – when we get close to $ 200 billion. ”

He qualified the claim that time with the words “about” and “getting close”, but it still wasn’t even close to correct.

The US goods and services Trade deficits with Canada were about $ 40.6 billion in 2023, the last year when full data is available, As per the US Government Bureau of Economic Analysis. Even if you only consider trading in goods and ignore the trade in services that the United States stands out in, the US deficit with Canada was about $ 72.3 billion in 2023, still far shy for Trump’s regular “$ 200 billion”.

And it is worth noting that the deficit is overwhelmingly caused of the US that imports a large amount of cheap Canadian oil – about 3.9 million barrels of crude oil a day on average in 2023 – which Helps keeping Americans gas prices down.

Trump have claimed That “we don’t need anything” from Canada but heavy crude oil from Alberta Oil Sands is in High demand from us refineriesMostly in the Midwest, designed to treat heavy crude oil for products such as gasoline and diesel, rather than Lighter crude oil The United States tends to extract domestic.

“If (hypothetical) Canadian oil was not available, many US refineries would fight to find heavy raw somewhere else, and they can even stop operating in such a scenario. Historically, Venezuela had been a major producer of heavy crude oil, but Venezuela’s oil industry is a shadow of its former self, ”said Pavel MolchanovAn energy expert who is an investment strategy -analyst at Raymond James.

Trump has for years called on Canada and European members of NATO to spend more on their military. He has correct noted That Canada has consistently come under NATO’s guideline for having each member spent 2% of the gross domestic product on defense.

But Trump has sometimes exaggerated how far Canada is from the 2% goal.

He wrong claimed At the beginning of January, Canada spends “less than 1%.” Official NATO numbers Show Canada used 1.37% of GDP on defense in 2024 – fifth lowest in 2024 out of the 31 NATO members with a standing army – up from an estimated 1.31% by 2023. Canada was over 1% for the entire Trump’s first Presidency ranging from 1.44% in 2017 to 1.29% in 2019.

Trump too said At the beginning of January: “They do not have essentially a military. They have a very small military. ”

Canadian Defense experts and the Canadian government itself have raised concern for the size and emergency of the country, but it is very much found – with More than 63,000 common service members From the fall of 2024 plus more than 20,000 reserves.

The Canadian military and the US military run together the North American Aviation Defense Command (Norad) and perform several other activities together, including strategic initiatives in Latvia and South China Sea. In the past years, the Canadian military has fought with the US military in The war in Afghanistan (where more than 150 Canadian troops Died) The war against ISIS in Syria and IraqAt Gulf WarAt The Korean War And both world Wars (where tens of thousands of Canadian troops died) in addition to attending other wars and peacekeeping missions.

Trump qualified his claim with the word “essentially.” And he has the right to question as Canadian politicians have whether Canada’s military is strong enough. But Canada is certainly not comparable to Iceland, a NATO member without any standing army.

“Canada’s military is not NATO’s largest, but it has regularly made significant contributions such as holding down KandaharOne of the toughest places in Afghanistan, with a little help until Obama’s wave. It plays a significant role as Head of NATO efforts in Latvia“Said Stephen SaidemanPaterson -President of International Affairs of Carleton University in Ottawa and director of the Canadian Defense and Security Network. “It is in the midst of a major recapitalization effort that gives it 88 F-35s15 frigates and more. So less than it should be? Sure. Very small? No. No? Not at all. ”

Saideman also noted that Canada not in absolute terms – not factoring in the size of each member’s finances – is one of NATOs Largest consumers for defense; It was eighth highest in 2024 out of 31 members excluding Iceland. “Despite spending less than 2%, Canada is still one of the largest consumers on military things – its economy is bigger than most NATO members, so you absolutely buy it and use a lot,” he said.