Latest Update on New Jersey’s upcoming snow -capped, icy, slushy root

Update from 7 p.m. 15.30 Tuesday …

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Original post from 7:54 Tuesday …

The lower line

On Monday, a dropdead was beautiful weather day, across New Jersey as temperatures rose as high as 59 degrees. Not too shabby, considering that the day began with a healthy coating of snow on the ground for most of the state.

While Tuesday morning stays mild, it’s time for winter to raise its ugly head again. Tuesday will be a big transition day as a cool wind sends temperatures that tumble again.

This new penetration of cold air is the first ingredient for our next storm system to arrive late Wednesday. That’s it not A blizzard. That’s it not an ice cream storm. That’s it not A rainstorm. It will be all the above for New Jersey, depending on where you are and what time it is.

Bottom line: While sneak cumulations will be limited, the big concern here is a slurked Thursday morning commuting. As the headline of this post suggests, weighing will be a combination of snow -covered, ice cream and slushy. (And/or wet too.)

I am pretty much focused on the timeline, geography and the total effects of Wednesday evening’s storm and not so much on exact numbers. Yes, I show some approximate snow and isaccumulation values, presented in a “worst case of scenario” light. But let’s get real – this is a very complicated setup where one or two degrees on the thermometer will make all the difference in what you see. Blur your eyes reading the forecast, prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Oh, by the way … there’s another messy winter mix storm in the forecast for Saturday.

And then potentially more storm activity next week.

Tuesday

The lovely, mild weather has lasted until Tuesday morning as the whole state of New Jersey begins the day over freezing. From this writing (7 am) temperatures range from 33 to 51 degrees, north to the south. Some spots are over their normal high temperature for this time of year.

We had to see lots of sunshine throughout Tuesday and our weather should stay dry. But today’s big weather nuisance will be a brisk, cool northwestern wind. Top wind throw appears to be in the range of 20 to 30 mph.

Thermometers should generally keep stable, average in the mid -40s through noon Tuesday. And then Temps starts to tumble.

By Tuesday night we fall into the lower 20s. Absolutely back on the cold side. Absolutely back to pick up before Wednesday morning.

Wednesday

Most of Wednesday will be gray and cold before our winter storms ram up at night.

Expect cloudy sky and high temperatures only around the freezer – let’s call it 30 to 35 degrees.

There is a chance for a snow shower during the day Wednesday. In fact, at least one model (NAM) paints a lasting strip of light snow over the southern half of the state, which could produce some slight accumulations and travel problems at the evening commuting. (For the record, I don’t think this is a likely scenario – just something worth mentioning.)

Widespread bad weather first arrives on Wednesday night, probably only after midnight. Given the temperatures of the 20s and 30s, entry will probably be all light snow.

As the storm progresses, warmer air will crawl from the south, especially about a mile above the ground. This is a very important slice of the atmosphere of winter weather as it dictates exactly what kind of rainfall falls from the cloud.

For about the western half of the state, a transition from snow to icy mixture is probably between midnight and dawn Thursday. Icy Mix consists mainly of gossip and freezing rain – it “accumulates” as snow, but can create a very smooth situation.

North Jersey is the most difficult zone to predict here as rainfall could remain winter during the duration. But will it be cold enough at all levels for straight snow? Or will mix inhibit accumulations and improve the glaze potential? In both cases, travel conditions will be slurved Thursday morning – it’s just a matter of whether roads will be more snow -capped, icy or slushy.

Meanwhile, closer to the coast, I suspect that a quick flip from snow to straight rain is the most likely scenario. This transition ends well during Thursday morning Rushime. Some light accumulation and smooth spots are possible, but the soil will quickly become slushy and/or wet instead.

Here is my first knife card on an influence card for this complicated storm system. This contains all the potential storm scenarios on the table, giving you an idea of ​​the worst case snowfall/ice fall. I tried to divide the state into four regions that are not based on snow/isaccumulation numbers, but rather on precipitation type, what Thursday morning will look like and how bad travel conditions could get.

Four inches of snow and/or a tenth of an empty ice would qualify as “moderate” influence. Then again it doesn’t look like a bigger winter storm. But certainly an effective one all over the state.

Thursday

Most of New Jersey will turn to regular rain at a time on Thursday morning before rainfall ends around noon (7 p.m.

For the rest of Thursday, don’t expect the sky to clear a lot. Nor does any huge warming, beyond the 30s (north) and 40s (south).

I do not expect any significant lingering winter influence on the commuting on Thursday night.

Friday

Like Tuesday. Between storm systems on Friday will be a blasing day with a mild start, but a colder finish.

Temperatures drop from the lower to the mid -40s with a quick western wind. Heaven will be partially sunny and the weather remains dry.

Another storm system will affect New Jersey this weekend. It looks like another “mess with blend”. And I can guarantee that we will not have a solid handle on precipitation types and potential accumulations before the storm of the Storm-Thursday departs. (After my “One Storm at a time” rule.)

A passing shower will be possible to the south on Saturday morning before more widespread rainfall arrives late in the day. Once again, the weather could lean snuggers or Icier or wetter, depending on the exact track and temperature profile. Impactful snow and/or isaccumulation is an option when this thing wraps Sunday morning around dawn.

The rest of Sunday looks fine, just like Monday. The next storm system we will have to look at is in Tuesday-Wednesday’s timeframe. Models have been pretty bull-ish on snowfall plots over the last few races will be interesting to see how it continues to develop and develop.

Dan Zarrow is the main meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook For the latest forecast and real -time road updates.