Washington Lord’s Basketball vs. Nebraska: Game Preview & How to See

How to see (and bet)

Date: Wednesday, 2/5/25

Tip-off time: 19:30 pt

TV: B1G network

Streaming: FoxSportsgo.com

Radio: Huskies Gameeday AppSports Radio Kjr

Location: Seattle, Washington

Betting Line: Washington Huskies +2

Nebraska Cornhuskers 2024-25 Statistics:

Record: 14-8

Points for per. Match: 75.6 PPG (111.)

Points against pr. Match: 71.1 PPG (138.)

Adjusted offensive efficiency: 112.4 (79.)

Adjusted defensive efficiency: 96.3 (32.)

Strength of schedule: 23.

Also worth noting, this game acts as a matchup of conflicting backup centers, each of which will turn to their previous team. Huskies has Wilhelm Breidenbach, who started his career with Cornhuskers. Meanwhile, Nebraska has Braxton Meah. Things started okay for Meah this year when he started the first 17 games, playing and shooting 91% off the field in the B1G game. But Meah was a DNP in 2 of Nebraska’s last 3 games and played only 7 minutes in their last match against Oregon. He is 0/6 from the FT line in conference games and only 3/13 (23%) overall.

Nebraska key players:

G-Rollie Worster, Sr. 6’5, 210: 8.1 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 2.8 Acts, 45.3% FG, 22.2% 3pt, 70.3% FT

Husky fans had to remember Worster, who was the starting point guard at Utah the previous 3 seasons. He has never shot over 31% on three-pointers in conference games and is only 3/17 in B1G so far, so he is not an outside threat. His assistant award is on a career low, so he has not had the ball in his hands as much as he was used to during Craig Smith, but his turnover speed is close to a career best.

G- Connor Essegian, Jr. 6’4, 190: 11.0 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 1.0 APG, 41.2% FG, 39.8% 3PT, 83.7% FT

It is not as if the Wisconsin transfer never tries a 2-point shot, but he prefer to bomb from the outside. He average approx. Six 3-point trials per Battle and has hit almost 40% for the year. Although it included a crazy hot start and he has cooled slightly shooting 4/15 over their last 3 games. His career was best was 36% in Wisconsin, so he may come back to Normal. Essegian is also an elite free throw shooter, but otherwise not much else offers.

G- Brice Williams, Sr. 6’7, 214: 19.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 2.7 Acts, 46.8% FG, 35.4% 3pt, 89.4% FT

Williams has been an elite scorer for a while now, but as a 5th year senior has finally got the keys to the car and gets the most out of the possibilities. He has shot at least 35% from deep each of the last 4 seasons and also goes over ¹⁄₂ of his 2-point shot and almost 90% of his free kick. The shooting profiles are completely different, but his frequency of use, auxiliary speed and turnover speed are very close to Great Osobor, showing how involved he is in the Nebraska violation.

F- Juwan Gary, Sr. 6’6, 226: 12.7 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 0.7 Acts, 42.4% FG, 27.3% 3pt, 77.3% FT

There is a level of consistency with Gary, as the most similar season as Gary’s 2025 season in the Kenpom database is Gary’s 2024 season. He plays an underdimensioned 4 role and will step out to shoot it from the outside, but is less than 30% both for the season and for his career. He is a good offensive rebounder, but not elite, as if he were back in Alabama before transferring several years ago. Gary also shoots a career low on 2-point shots, but a career best on free kick.

C-Berke Buyuktuncel, so. 6’10, 244: 6.9 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 0.8 BPG, 43.9% FG, 29.8% 3PT, 65.5% FT

The Turkish Sophomore really fought last season at UCLA, but is steadily improved in Nebraska. He is Nebraska’s leading rebounder and is also top-3 on the team in both stealing and block rate, so primarily it gets done at the defensive end. His offense has subsided against better competition, although his 2-PT percentage dropped from 72% in the non-conference to 37% in the B1G game. He also takes more shots over the arch than inside it, so he is not so much of a post threat.

The outlook

A week ago today it seemed that Nebraska may have been one of the lighter games of the schedule. Cornhuskers were in the middle of a 6-match’s losing row and had fallen to 2-7 in conference games after a 28-point road loss in Wisconsin. They were also wiped out on Purdue in that stretch, but there were signs that Nebraska might be better than they appeared when the other games were within 5 points at the end of the regulation.

Now it seems that the ship has been fixed a little as Nebraska beat Illinois at home in OT and turned around and beat the ducks in Eugene. It gives Nebraska 3 wins over teams that have beaten UW this year (and all in the same home/away split as where UW played the game).

Everything starts with Brice Williams on offense for Nebraska. The former Charlotte Transfer has taken her game to another level in his last year in college to an average of 19 points per year. Match of 47/36/89% shooting divisions. Like a 6’7 wing, there is not a good matchup for Huskies to try to defend him. Expect Tyler Harris originally get the task, but Williams is strong enough to be able to bully Harris a little and should have a big game.

Despite Williams’ expertise, this is not a very good violation in Nebraska. They rank 17. In B1G games only in front of Huskies in offensive efficiency. They are essentially tied with Washington for 16th place in 3-point shooting in conference games of less than 30% and actually shoot 4 percentage points worse on the free throwing line than UW (69% to 73%). It is also difficult to get a possession advantage for them as they are below average and hold the ball as well as get offensive boards. Not shooting well from deep or on the line and not getting other chances of offense is not a great combination.

Things have been better for Nebraska in defense. They rank 32. National in adjusted defensive efficiency. It has not exactly helped them to much of conference games as Cornhuskers are 16. In B1G games in raw defensive efficiency behind Washington.

However, Nebraska has a clear defensive identity. They won’t let hold beat them in the paint. Opponents score only 42.6% of their points from the arch (351. National) and 16.2% from the free throwing line (323. National). They will aggressively double -team opposing post scores and force them to give up the ball, which means opponents do not score much around the edge and do not come to the free -throwing line. It is not good for UW, there is very dependent on the Great Osobor’s score in the paint and the ability to make mistakes.

If you take something away on the defense, it means you are giving up something else. Good passing teams can kick it out and find open three-point shooters while Nebraska is in Scramble mode to try to recover. Therefore, Nebraska is in the top-5 of defense nationally in % of both 3’s attempts and points coming from 3s in the country. They give you that shot and have confidence that college shooters are not good enough to really punish them hard.

The total percentage of 3-point marks against them is almost about NCAA average of 33.1%, but when opposite shots fall, it’s really hard for Nebraska to win. During Nebraska’s loss in the B1G game, opponents shoot an average of 13/29 (44%) behind the arch. In their B1G winner, opponents shoot 7/31 (22%) from deep. Sometimes basketball is just as simple.

If there is a team that you will give up open 3-point shots at this conference, Washington is pretty close to the top of the list. Huskies shot over 40% from deep towards Minnesota on Saturday, but only did it on 15 attempts. They will have to shoot a similar percentage of almost twice as many shots against Nebraska to get away with a win. This means that DJ Davis has to rediscover his form from the Illinois game, and Mekhi Mason/Tyler Harris has to continue to be warm from the outside. To play an assortment of ihenacho/Diallo/Osobor/Kenang everyone out there at the same time will not cut it in this one. Two of Davis, Mason and Harris must be on the floor at all times and they have to make open shots.

It is certainly possible that Washington wins this game. Huskies have had nights where they shot well from deep, although there has been much more when they did not. This game is an almost must-win to keep hope alive of qualifying for the B1G tournament considering the rest of the schedule and the potential need for a tiebreaker over Nebraska. But if you play the percentages, it seems to be much more likely that Huskies masons a lot of open exterior shots than they still do.

Forecast

Washington Huskies– 64, Nebraska Cornhuskers- 71