Don’t call it a comeback? Why betting on Sam Darnold for AP Award triggered debate

On By Littum

For six seasons, Sam Darnold struck largely in the NFL remedy. The Top-Fem draft in 2018 struggled throughout its first three seasons like the New York Jets’ Start quarterback and then spent two uninspiring years with Carolina Panthers and a season as a backup with San Francisco 49ers.

There was very little expected from Darnold when he signed with Minnesota Vikings in 2024 and was starting after a pre -season injury to Rookie JJ McCarthy. Most sports books did not have him on the opening of the MVP-Odds board, and ESPN Bet eventually added him to 100-1, with some books indicating odds as long as 300-1.

Then the Vikings started unexpectedly 5-0 with some notable performances from Darnold. He finished 65.9% of his passports in 724 yards and nine touchdowns in consecutive wins against the 49s, Houston Texans and Green Bay Packers.

When Darnold suddenly played inspired football, many sports bettors meant, including George “Riley” Panagakis, the Vikings QB should be a front runner to win AP NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award.

Panagakis was so sure of Darnold that he placed $ 1,000 worth of bets on him to win the price of +1000 odds after week 1.

“He had a nice week and I said, ‘Boy, the guy was a high draft he got a shot. The Vikings got talent on a broad recipient,'” Panagakis said. “I don’t just throw darts; I choose for reasoning and I think he’s a legitimate candidate.”

Darnold has a resume similar to those from the two most-recaptures CPY winners: Seattle Seahawks Quarterback Geno Smith (2022) and then-Cleveland Browns QB Joe Flacco (2023), both of whom won the award after having career seasons and led their Hold on to the end game. Flacco won the award last season over Buffalo Bills Safety Damar Hamlin, who, despite limited playing time, was a massive betting favorite for CPY throughout the season and closing at -400 odds.

In response to Flacco’s victory, Associated Press issued new guidelines to voters for the award ahead of the season 2024. AP Senior NFL writer Rob Maadi said at the time that “The Spirit of the AP comeback player of the year award is to honor a player, that has shown resilience in light of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury or other circumstances that led him to Miss playing time the previous season.

The ambiguity of the last clause – “other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season” – left the door open in the mind of some AP voters who still felt Darnold deserved the award.

It also created tremendous confusion for sports books. Some continued to offer odds on Darnold throughout the trial, while others temporarily took down odds as they interpreted him to be unjustified, only to put them back when it became clear that he could still win.

“While the AP year’s AP -Distributed comeback player is for players coming back from an injury, some of the voters have expressed support to Sam Darnold regardless,” Betmgm Sport Trading Manager Christian Cipollini told ESPN via E email. “This pressed us to put Darnold back on the board, despite not having odds of a good part of the season.”

Reports appeared in early January that AP would accept this year’s comeback player votes for Darnold, and the organization later confirmed to ESPN that he will serve the award if he gets the most votes. The monkey officially appointed him a finalist for the award a few weeks later with Hamlin, Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow, Los Angeles Chargers RB JK Dobbins and New England Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez.

VSIN Senior Producer and On-Air Talent Kelley Bydlon put an effort on Burrow to win CPY at +105 odds, believing that if voters followed the guidelines, the Bengals Signal-Callers MVP-worthy season after suffering a wrist damage in 2023 more than enough to earn honor.

“You have disabled what people will do with a vote that they completely control on their own,” Bydlon told ESPN. “It’s not something that a scoreboard shows your feelings cloud your judgment if you bet on these things just because you feel a person has a case.”

This year’s comeback player of the year is a perfect encapsulation of the uncertainty that comes with betting on pricing. Unlike money lines, posts, totals, props and even most other futures, prices are based on voters’ statements, which means Bettor’s secondary focus on sports and focuses primarily on human decision making.

The uncertainty about Darnold’s eligibility did not deter Bettors as QB attracted a lot of action to win this year’s comeback player on sports books.

The USC product took 18.5% of the efforts at ESPN Bet throughout the season, most of any player on the board. At Betmgm he took less tickets than Burrow, with 13.57% and 13.61% of Betshare respectively.

Burrow ended up as the clear leader in handles at Betmgm (39.1%) and ESPN Bet (29.9%) due to his short odds. Bengals QB opened around a consensus +250, behind only the New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers on +150 and then got as long as +1200 under Bengals’ glowing start. In mid-November he was the odds-on-favorite, and should he win, Burrow would join Chad Pennington as the only players in the NFL story who won CPY twice (Burrow last won the award in 2021).

And yet, even Burrow’s CPY case is not clear: He missed only seven weeks of the 2023 season and had already been considered a top-tier quarterback that came in this season, making his comeback subjectively less impressive.

“All awards are really difficult for us,” Draftking’s sports book director Johnny Avello told ESPN. “We evaluate what they have done during the year, trying to stay on top of what some of the voters might think.”

Between Burrow’s ascension and the debate on eligibility, Darnold’s odds of the award fluctuated wildly. After starting the board and then collecting long odds to start the season, the Viking quarterback shortened all the way to +225 on ESPN bet after Minnesota’s 4-0 start.

Then, in mid-October, the AP voters and the public reminded of the new pricing lines and from there, ESPN bet his odds at +700 and then to 250-1 a month later-but when it became clear that Darnold would yarn in The slightest some votes anyway, he fell back on small underdog territory. Some books even made him minus money, with Betmgm closed Darnold on -105 and Burrow on -120.

“When money comes in, we adapt. It has nothing to do with voters,” Avello said. “We don’t know what voters think we just know what we think and what the bettors think and that’s pretty much what we have to go by. Sure you are scruing the internet and you look for stories that could affect people’s thinking, even voters thinking, but it’s about it.

The dilemma of this season’s comeback Player of the Year prize created headaches for sports books and bettors to navigate because no one completely knew how it would play out. Would most of the voters stick to AP’s new guidelines? Would probably voters go junk? Could there be a completely unexpected result?

“The Associated Press laid his criteria for the award,” an AP voter told ESPN. “I plan to vote based on these criteria and I hope all 50 voters will do the same.”

If enough voters think as it quoted, it could reflect why Burrow still closed as the favorite, even after all the arguments on Darnold’s behalf. Still, he is not the only one who “deserves” of the allocation under its current guidelines.

Take Dobbins, who suffered a torn ACL in 2021, a minor knee injury in 2022 and a torn Achilles-sen in 2023. The 26-year-old signed with chargers this season and continued to put career-best numbers everywhere. At Betmgm he closed on +1600, behind only Burrow and Darnold.

“I think this is where the true debate should be between Dobbins and Burrow,” said Bydlon. “It is a better statistical case with Joe Burrow, who does not come back from almost as significant an injury as Dobbins, and then you have Dobbins who do not have almost as good statistics but have come back from a much greater degree of Damage and his team made the playoffs.

And then there’s Hamlin’s case for the award. Hamlin had one of the most compelling tales to win last season, but ended up playing in only five games in 2023, which made very little influence. Things changed in 2024 when Hamlin played 13 games, and a career high intercepts and five passports defended.

“What’s the comeback player of the year prize if Damar Hamlins won’t win it?” Snapback Sports CEO Jack Settleman told ESPN. “I feel like no one has ever looked like it more than that.”

Setteman saw AP’s new guidance during the summer, but decided to throw a $ 1,000 effort at Darnold at +2000 anyway. He, like other Darnold -bettors, looks at the new guidelines as suggestions and does not expect all voters to follow them.

With those already voting in, it is impossible to say who wins until the envelope is opened at the NFL Honors on Thursday night. Bettors around the country, whether taking Darnold, Burrow or a longer shot, will be on the edge of their seat.

“Right now we have a prize called comeback player of the year. And for me it can be from harm, it might just be your game,” Panagakis said. “There are a lot of things in life that are not absolute, a lot of gray areas. I made my efforts and I have rooted it, but every month when they change these shades I can’t get all riled up or down by These new rules they have and all this BS and who will vote for it.

“What can I say? I did my efforts and I hope I win.”