NBA Futures Odds: Moving Jimmy Butler’s Trade to the Golden State Needle?

The NBA trading deadline was a wild with a number of large trades, including several All-Stars that were moved. Luka Dončić trade for Los Angeles Lakers, of course, affected the NBA title odds, but even Lakers is not considered a top-tier challenger. Did any of the trades moved after, such as Jimmy Butler’s agreement with Golden State, the needle?

The short answer is no. Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder are still co-favorites to win the NBA title. Both teams have +225 odds at Betmgm. Thunder has the best record in the NBA at 40-9, which goes on Friday and is six matches ahead of Memphis in the Western Conference position. Celtics does not have the top location in the east and are 5.5 matches behind Cleveland Cavaliers, but Boston is still the defense champion. 41-10 Cavs is third in the odds of +800.

Then we come to Lakers on +1200, which now has a LeBron James-Dončić duo, and the newly acquired center Mark Williams will fill the place left by Anthony Davis. Lakers were +4000 a week ago and is now fourth in odds to win the NBA title.

As for the other major features of the deadline, including Butler’s move to Golden State, they changed the odds, but did not change the perception of these teams enough to crack the main group of challengers. Warriors are 25-26 after losing on Lakers on Thursday night and sitting on the edge of the play-in stains in the western conference, tied with Sacramento Kings for 10th place.

Golden State was +6600 to win it all before the Butler trade and is now +4000. It is a big move visually, but the implied odds of +4000 still give Warriors less than a 3 percent chance of winning the NBA title. A Stephen Curry-Jimmy Butler-duo has potential but Curry is 36 and Butler is 35. Curry is on his way to this being just his second full season with a 3-point percentage below 40, and butler on average is his lowest Point’s total amount when his second season with Chicago Bulls back in 2012-13. Will they both get a boost from having each other in the set -up to help draw attention away from conflicting defense?

San Antonio Spurs is in the same category after getting De’Aaron Fox to attend Victor Wembanyama. The spurs are three wins behind Warriors, so the movement feels more like something that will help Spurs’ title chances in the coming years, but they moved up a bit. The spurs were +25000 before trade and are +15000 now.

As for the teams that moved down the odds, it doesn’t take much creativity to find out. Of course, Dallas fell from +2000 to +3000. The kings fell from +10000 to +30000. The heat moved from +12500 to +30000.

The bottom line is the top three teams in the bet market. Celtics is even money to get to the NBA final out of the eastern conference, and Thunder is almost there (+115) to make it out of the West. As long as these teams remain stable and healthy with Cleveland as a third competitor, it would be difficult for any trade to reshape the bet market significantly for this year. Who knows, maybe the new Look Lakers will be a Juggernaut in time for the post season, and Luka and LeBron can return to the final, this time as teammates, but for now the favorites remain the same.

2024-25 NBA Futures Odds

(Photo Credit: Jason Koerner / Getty Images to Reserve Paddle)