Recently discovered Asteroids Odds to influence the Earth in 2032 rises slightly

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A recently discovered asteroid, which has caught the attention of the astronomy community, now has a slightly increased risk of affecting the soil.

Asteroid, which was appointed at 2024 YR4, has a 2.2% chance of hitting our planet on December 22, 2032, according to European Space Agency. The risk assessment has risen from a chance of 1.2% over the past week due to new observations.

Astronomers expect the percentage to develop when more observations are shared. If this asteroid follows the pattern of other asteroids near earth after their discovery, the chances of influence will rise and then fall, according to the agency. For example, Asteroid Apophis was once considered one of the most dangerous asteroids, with the potential to beat the ground after his discovery in 2004. In 2021, researchers revised this opinion following an accurate analysis of the asteroid’s orbit.

The more astronomers can observe the Asteroid 2024 YR4, the more they can refine their understanding of its size and trajectory, which will determine the likelihood of an influence.

“Basically, the more observations we get, the more we can locate and confirm the course of the asteroid, which is most likely to be a fly town and not an influence,” according to one Blog posts Agency shared. “That’s why we expect the risk prognosis can be steadily/step -by -step reduced to zero.”

The asteroid is estimated to be 131 to 295 feet (40 and 90 meters) wide.

Space Rock has a “size area comparable to a large building,” Dr. Paul Chodas, manager For the Center for Near Earth Object Studies or Cneos at NASAS Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. Chodas added that the size of the asteroid that astronomers are trying to determine with follow -up observations using multiple telescopes is currently very uncertain.

“If the asteroid turns out to be on the large end of its estimated size range, the effect could cause explosion damage as far as 50 kilometers (31 miles) from the impact,” Chodas said. “But it is in the unlikely case that it can affect at all. The potential for damage occurs due to the incredibly high speed (about 17 kilometers per second or 38,028 miles per hour) where the asteroid would enter the atmosphere. ”

Asteroids of this size have an impact on the ground every few thousand years and they can cause serious damage to local regions, according to ESA.

In 1908, a 30-meter-wide (98 feet wide) hit the asteroid Podkamennaya Tunguska River in a remote Siberian forest in Russia, according to it Planetary Society. The event smooths trees and destroyed forests across 830 square miles (2,150 square kilometers).

And in 2013, a 20 meter wide (66 feet wide) the asteroid went into the Earth’s atmosphere over Chelyabinian, Russia. It exploded in the air and released 20 to 30 times more energy than the first nuclear bombGenerate brightness greater than the sun, radiate heat, damage more than 7,000 buildings and damage more than 1,000 people.

The asteroid terrestrial influence of the last alarm system or atlas, telescope in Rio Hurtado, Chile, first spied 2024 YR4 on December 27. The telescope is one of the asteroid discovery programs funded by NASA to scan the sky in the search for near land amplifiers, said Davide Farnocchia, navigation engineer at JPL and CNEOS, via E email.

Automatic asteroid warning systems sent out an alarm after determining the asteroid had a narrow chance of affecting the Earth by 2032, bumping it to the top of ESA’s asteroid risk and NASA’s automated vaginal list on December 31. Such lists include any known asteroids with a Non -NUL probability of colliding with the Earth.

Since the beginning of January, astronomers have used Magdalena Ridge Observatory in New Mexico, the Danish Telescope and the very large telescope in Chile to track the asteroid, which is currently more than 28 million miles (45 million kilometers) from Earth and moving Further away over time, Farnocchia said.

As the asteroid moves away from the ground and becomes weaker, scientists have to rely on larger telescopes to observe it. The heavenly object must be visible through the beginning of April and disappear as it continues on its orbit around the sun. It does not return to the proximity of the earth until 2028, Farnocchia said.

If 2024 YR4 disappears from views before aerospace agencies can completely exclude any chance of influence, Space Rock remains at the risk until it is back in view in June 2028.

“Using the available tracking data, we can predict the future position of an asteroid,” said Farnocchia. “The longer we track an asteroid, the more accurate the prediction. When we collect additional data, the uncertainty in the position of 2024 YR4 falls in 2032. ”

NASA and ESA regularly track thousands of almost earth-asteroids, but depending on the size, the spaces schools are not always easy to spot. But improvements in asteroid study technology and future asteroid spotting missions could detect objects that astronomers have not been able to see in the past. Currently, there are no other known large asteroids that have more than 1% chance of affecting the Earth, according to NASA.

Two international asteroid response groups approved by the United Nations – the International Asteroid Warning Network, President of NASA, and the Room Mission Counseling Group, as President of ESA – has been activated In response to the threat level.

The international asteroid warning network is responsible for coordinating the organizations involved in the tracking and characterization of the details of the asteroid – and, if necessary, the development of strategies to assess the consequences of an influence.

Meanwhile, the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group, recently called in Vienna, Austria, will give recommendations and evaluate opportunities for reducing a potential influence if the asteroid remains a threat. Possible mitigation tactics include deflection of the asteroid in space, as NASA’s demonstration of the double asteroid redirecting test in 2022 or evacuation of potentially affected Regions on Earth, Farnocchia said.

The group continues to monitor the 2024 YR4 and meet again in late April or early May, as room stones disappear from the sight to re -evaluate whether any recommendations should be made, according to ESA.

“If 2024 YR4 remained a threat at the end of the current observation window, remedy measures may be considered,” Farnocchia said. “But talking about mitigation is too soon. The priority right now is to continue observing 2024 YR4 and reducing its positional uncertainties in 2032, as this is likely to exclude the effect. ”