As the tax -archiving season starts, early data suggests a slow start

A few weeks before the IRS began accepting tax returns on January 27, 2025, the taxpayer and taxpayers expected – including me – a relatively normal filing season. But as things began to change – the former IRS commissioner presented his resignation, an employment freezing kicked in, and the IRS employees were offered the chance to leave early – the tax archive season began to look a little less predictable. It may explain why the early number suggests that taxpayers do not rush to archive.

Early filing data reflects a 14% downturn in received tax returns compared to the previous year. However, the IRS is not concerned about noting on its website that “(l) Arge percentage changes in filing seasonal numbers are usually seen at the beginning of each tax season” and that “(h) istorically, these figures are in the process of future weeks as More tax returns come in.

The IRS continued to note that because many taxpayers were still waiting for important tax documents in late January (the due date was 31 January), the IRS expects the tax return submission numbers to catch up for the following weeks.

I’m not entirely convinced. There was a lot of talk when the tax season opened and reflected confusion among taxpayers. Why? As mentioned earlier, the IRS is currently without a permanent commissioner (and the functioning commissioner has not sent a message to the taxpayer). A Trump administration that hires freezing on the tax agency has begun with existing job offers being lifted. President Trump proposed He may be shooting some current IRS workers or moving those who are authorized to transport guns to the border of immigration enforcement.

All of this got taxpayers who wonder how different the tax season can be. When the season opened, Adam Markowitz, a signed agent in Windermere, Florida, posted on Bluesky, ”I have now had three conversations this week telling people that yes, they still have to file tax returns this year. Are we really at this time? “

As a result, I eventually published an article that confirmed that taxpayers still needed to archive.

And apparently, in DC, they were also a little worried about the filing season. This week, the administration went back its previous efforts to get IRS employees to resign. The IRS confirmed that specific, critical filing seasoning positions are now exempt from the exposed resignation (DR) until after the tax season is completed. It is unclear who exactly fits these criteria, but the memo notes that it includes them in taxpayers’ services, information technology and the taxpayer’s lawyer.

Whatever the reason, the early figures in 2025 are sluggish. IRS has received 15,318,000 individual tax returns in 2024 compared to 13,177,000 in 2025. It is as noticed a drop of 14.0% – and remember that it is a decrease from the beginning of 2024 when taxpayers were waiting to See what Congress would do to these potentially retroactive tax benefits (it never happened). The drip is pretty important if you compare the filing season 2025 with the archiving season 2023 (30%).

(About 2/3 of these returns were self -prepared, which is not unusual to see early in the tax season.)

The data shows that the IRS has processed 11,727,700 individual tax returns per year. 31 January 2025 compared to 13,928,000 by February 2, 2024. It is a decrease of 15.8%.

Web visits in IRs.gov were also sharply down and dipped 34.8% compared to 2024. There have been 68,287,000 visits to the site per. 31 January 2025 compared to 104,788,000 visits in February 2, 2024.

The downturn in web visits can reflect the fact that the site has not been regularly updated – there have been only four press releases that have been located since the season opened.

There is a sunbeam: The average tax refusion is up. The IRS has issued 3,231,000 tax refuses so far in 2025 compared to 2,616,000 in 2024, a lift of 23.5%. The average tax refund is also up: $ 1,928 per Taxpayer per 31 January 2025 compared to $ 1,395 per February 2, 2024, an increase of 38.2%. The average refund issued with direct deposit is even higher in 2025: $ 2,069 (compared to $ 1,543 in 2024).

We expect taxation numbers to change in the next few weeks. The law requires the IRS to keep repayments tied to the earned income tax credit (EITC) and ACTC until mid -February. The rule applies to the entire reimbursement – even the part that is not associated with EITC and ACTC. This means that if you qualify for the refundable credit, you will have to wait until the IRS can release it. As a result, if you are an early EITC/ACTC files, start to see tax fusions by March 3 – some taxpayers could see their refund a few days earlier. This estimate is based on treatment times that allow for presidents’ day, which is a federal and banking holiday.

When these EITC/ACTC returns are eligible to be processed, we must see an uptick in a number of categories, including reimbursement and average reimbursement. However, it will be interesting to see exactly how much these numbers climb. Will taxpayers archive now or wait and see?

It has been an unpredictable season so far. Come back as the season progresses when Forbes Continuing to track these IRS numbers.

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