Which result from Madrid Derby is most favorable?

Real Madrid and Atlético de Madrid face this Saturday at Santiago Bernabéu (21:00 H) in the match on the day 23 of Laliga EA Sports 2024-25, with FC Barcelona closely watching the result of the derby to get closer The tournament. Barça has closed the gap with ‘Merengues’ and ‘Colchoneros’ after the defeat of ‘La Casa Blanca’ last week against Espanyol (1-0) and Atlético’s draw a week earlier against Villarreal (1-1).

Diego Simeone’s team also stumbled in match day 20 at Butarque (1-0), but the team led by Hansi Flick could only steer a draw that week against Getafe (0-0). The last Madrid Derby ended in a draw (1-1) at Metropolitano Thanks to a goal at the last minute from Ángel Correa in 90+5 ‘. The same thing happened in Derby played at Bernabéu in February 2024 (1-1), where Marcos Llorente prevented the ‘Rojiblanco’ fall with a goal in 90+3 ‘.

Actually Real Madrid has not defeated their neighbors in La Liga since September 18, 2022 (1-2 at Metropolitano). And in Chamartín, the last ‘Merengue’ win goes back to December 12, 2021 (2-0), as this is the only victory of Carlo Ancelotti against Atlético at home in the tournament over five seasons (1 win, 2 losses and 2 draw).

Barça can be ‘in striking distance’ of the lead with a draw in Madrid Derby

In this sense, a draw is undoubtedly the result that most favors Barça’s interests. Culés reach 48 points if they defeat Seville on Sunday at Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán (21:00 t)While Real and Atlético will have 50 and 49 points respectively in the case of a draw at Santiago Bernabéu. On the contrary, a ‘Merengue’ win will allow Carlo Ancelotti’s team to maintain a four -point lead over the Catalan team.

However, a white or ‘Colchonero’ victory is not quite bad for BarcelonaAs long as they win in Seville. If Atlético loses, they will be tied with Barça in second place with 48 points, but the target difference favors the catalans. Similarly, if real were to lose, the gap with Azulgranas would be reduced to only 1 point, while Atlético would lead by 2 and 3 points ahead of their pursuers. With 15 match days back, the championship will be more open than ever after Madrid Derby.

Here are the last 5 derbies between Real Madrid and Atlético de Madrid in La Liga

1. 29 September 2024: Atlético de Madrid 1-1 Real Madridat Metropolitano. Goal: 0-1, Militao (min. 64); 1-1, correa (min. 90+5).
2. February 4, 2024: Real Madrid 1-1 Atlético de Madridby Santiago Bernabéu. Goal: 1-0, Brahim (min. 20); 1-1, llorente (min. 90+3).
3. 24 September 2023: Atlético de Madrid 3-1 Real Madrid, at Metropolitano. Goal: 1-0, Morata (min. 4); 2-0, Griezmann (min. 18); 2-1, Toni Kroos (min. 35); 3-1, Morata (min. 46).
4. 25 February 2023: Real Madrid 1-1 Atlético de Madridby Santiago Bernabéu. Goal: 0-1, Giménez (min. 78), 1-1, Álvaro Rodríguez (min. 85).
5. September 18, 2022: Atlético de Madrid 1-2 Real Madridat Metropolitano. Goal: 0-1, Rodrygo (min 18); 0-2, Valverde (min. 36); 1-2, Mario Hermoso (min. 83).