3 Winter storms aimed at New Jersey

The lower line

New Jersey’s Parade of Storms continues. We do not have one, not two, but three chances that winter weather will come over the next week. And each of these storm systems will have one very other character and personality. The first is all snow. The other will be another messy blend of snow and ice and rain. The third is mainly similar to rain at the moment, although a low trust call.

Obviously, we are mostly focused on the first storm in the sequence where Snow is set to arrive on Tuesday. It will be a “South Jersey Special” with the highest snowfall plots expected over Cumberland and Cape May counties.

Here in the weather center we are preparing for a busy week of active weather. Are you ready?

Monday: quiet

Monday will be the tranquility of the storms. The only headline here is cool temperatures that hold approx. 5 degrees below normal for mid -February.

Thermometers are in their 20s and 30s Monday morning – the more snow covering you have on the ground, the colder the air is.

Heights reach only mid -30s. At least wind will remain light. And the sky will be light with sunshine and passing clouds.

A batch of showers passes south of New Jersey on Monday. Apart from a few flurries (maybe), I see no other influences here.

Monday night contains rising clouds and cold low temperatures in the 20s.

Tuesday-Wednesday: Storm # 1

Since my first forecast call on Sunday, not much has changed. I chose not to change my top 4-8 “snowfall contour at all while compressing (lowers) my 0-1”, 1-2 “and 2-4” areas through northern and central New Jersey. As I look at the same basic story as yesterday, expected trust has risen.

Tuesday morning will be fine. Snow arrives at South Jersey Tuesday afternoon. The brown of the storm with the heaviest and more widespread snow will be Tuesday night. And the storm will join forces early Wednesday morning.

This is expected to be an all snow event – no ugly icing or even rain this time. And it’s a “South Jersey Special”.

Let me break it down by region, according to my latest prognosis card above.

The Snow Zone (Orange) … The original snow arrives around 1 p.m. 13 Tuesday. Snowfall becomes more stable and heavier after 7 p.m. 17, things will start to reassure after midnight and are packed completely with approx. at. 9 Wednesday. The total snow collection of 4 to 8 inches is probably for this area approx. South of the Garden State Parkway exit 63 and NJ Turnpike exit 3. It is plowly, shovelable snow and will have a significant influence on the journey.

On the edge (dark blue) … This area of ​​the southern central is expected to fall out of the heaviest and most long -lasting snow bands. Initial snow bands must arrive at 1 p.m. 17 Tuesday – Perfect timing for the evening commuting. Stuffering snow is possible through the evening, tapered after midnight. Last flags can stay around at. 9 Wednesday at the latest. Expect total accumulation of 2 to 4 inches here. It is enough to cause travel disorders, although treated major roads must do well. (Especially since it’s all snow and not ice this time.)

Conversation snow (light blue) … North of New Brunswick this is not your storm. Snow does not arrive until the tail end of tonight’s commuting, around 1 p.m. 19 or 20 Tuesday. The window to stable snow closes around midnight. Snow showers can dwell at around 2 p.m. 9 Wednesday at the latest. I think you will see some winter weather and facilitate accumulations in the order of an inch or two. Barely enough to shovel, but there could be smooth spots.

Hardly anything (white) … North Jersey gets a break from snow and ice from this particular storm as most rainfall stays south. Some snowflakes are eventually possible (although not guaranteed) along and north of the I-80 corridor. But it probably only starts after 1 p.m. 21 or 22 Tuesday. And then wrapped early Wednesday morning, with the last snowflake no later than noon. 9. I will put a caution “up to an inch” forecast here but don’t expect much.

ONE Winter Storm Watch Has been issued to the eight southernmost counties in New Jersey, which is with effect from Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday afternoon. This watch is likely to convert to warnings and/or advisers soon – that’s when it’s time to complete storm preparations (if any) and consider your travel plans carefully.

My biggest concern remains Tuesday evening commuting. Conditions are only rooting and messier, especially the farther south of New Jersey you are traveling.

Wednesday-Thursday: Storm # 2

After the early morning snow wrapped, we had to catch a look of sun through noon Wednesday. And then our next slurry storm system rolls on Wednesday night.

This time I hope we will escape most of Wednesday night commuting unharmed. By KL. 19 or 20 we look for snow to resume throughout the state.

But with warmer air in the game will Wednesday evening’s storm not Be an All Snow event. We can basically break the state in half for this one.

Southern half of New Jersey … A quick burst of snow – with little or no accumulation – will quickly turn to all rain overnight.

Northern Half of New Jersey … Snow Wednesday night will move on to an icy mixture and then possibly rain. (Models are sharply disagreing about how far the winter transition in North Jersey.) A few centimeter sneak cumulation is possible in northern New Jersey before this shift happens. And icing is back on the table, with a glaze of Isaccumulation possible due to freezing rain.

I chose not to create my own snow/influence card for this storm yet to focus on the more imitant and probably more influential Tuesday night snowstorm. But I will – my next weather blog update will be much more specific about this “Sloppy Seconds” Wednesday night storm.

High temperatures on Thursday can push into the 40s over large parts of the state thanks to the warmer air. However, it will be short -lived as a cold front arrives on Thursday night.

Friday: quiet

Friday will be sunny, windy and cold. High temperatures reach only the lower to the mid -30s, with wind cooler potentially stuck in the 20s.

And that’s it. I am glad to say that nothing will fall from the sky in New Jersey on Friday.

Saturday-Sunday: Storm # 3

Full disclosure: I don’t have much to say about the next storm in line.

Timing for this one seems to be late Saturday afternoon through early Sunday night. Potentially over 24 hours of bad weather.

From the latest model runs, a wave of warmer air – possibly pushing temps into the 50s in South Jersey – would create an almost all rain event. The European model even pumps into a rich moisture, which allows up to 2 inches much needed rainfall.

But here’s that thing: The hot air is never a guarantee this time of year. And if it doesn’t pan and this gets colder, cunning and icier, there may be some real problems in the midst of the extended president’s day weekend.

Again, I do not emphasize the details of Storm # 3 at this time. We continue to see and update as the week goes on. If there are alarm bells to run, we will probably start talking about them on Wednesday or (more likely) Thursday.

The extended prognosis

Will our weather simmer down next week? Yes, the storm train will slow down.

But it won’t derail.

Long -range models show additional storm signals around the middle and end of next week. Too early to tell if they will be winter or wet. (Or if they develop at all.) Without sustained warming in sight, I have a feeling that we will talk about sneezes through at least the rest of February.

Dan Zarrow is the main meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook For the latest forecast and real -time road updates.