Asteroid 2024 YR4 is unlikely to hit the ground but here is what would happen if it did

A newly discovered asteroid, which is traced by the global science society, has a nearly 98% chance of zooming in the Earth without touching our atmosphere. But if Asteroid 2024 YR4 hits the Earth, most people don’t even know that it happened.

“This is not a become-Worried kind of situation,” Asteroid and Comet expert Teddy Kareta told Fox Weather.

Kareta, a post -Doctoric associate at Lowell Observatory in Arizona, is among the scientists who track Asteroid 2024 YR4 through the earth -based and spacecraft data.

In the coming weeks and months, the security of how great and how much risk this asteroid poses the earth will be the focus. Right now, there is a 2.1% chance of asteroid 2024 YR4 that hits the Earth. It still ranks a 3 out of 10 on the Turin scale, currently the largest asteroid threat since Asteroid Apophis, which will now surely pass the Earth in 2029.

Asteroid 2024 YR4.

(NASA)

YR4 is estimated to be between 150 and 300 feet in diameter. But what we know about Asteroid 2024 YR4 is changing.

Next month, observations from the world’s most powerful space telescope will hopefully give more accurate estimates of its size. For about four hours in March, NASA’s James Webb room telescope will use his mid-led instrument (MIRI) to study the thermal energy from Asteroid 2024 YR4, which is another data point in finding out how big this asteroid is.

“You are able to measure not only how hot they are but how big they are at the same time. Because you can find out kind of what temperature they have risen up to. You get a sense of what kind of properties Their surface has.

So far, most size estimates based on sunlight are reflected by the asteroid.

“We will understand how these objects reflect light because it tells you something about what they are made of, what their surface looks like,” Kareta said. “The problem is that you have to look at them in a lot of different techniques to really narrow down exactly what kind of composition they have.”

James Webb Space Telescope’s primary mirror on NASA Goddard. Webbs mirrors are covered with a microscopic thin layer of gold, which optimizes them for reflective infrared light.

(NASA / CHRIS GUNN / NASA)

NASA and the European Space Agency Planetary Defense Offices deliver daily updates on Asteroid 2024 YR4 when the scientific process takes place in real time.

“If I was a member of the public, what I want to know that there were smart people who worked hard on the problem and they told us things they find out,” Kareta said.

But what if Asteroid 2024 years Do Hit Earth?

Objects about 150 feet wide have hit the ground before. If the Asteroid 2024 YR4 hit the planet, it would be a regional influence event and not affect the entire planet. People, even 100 miles away, may not even feel it.

“There is a very, very small chance that it will hit the earth at all,” Kareta said. “And then many of the places on earth that it could hit could very well end up in the Atlantic.”

Technology is improved enough to track space waste and asteroids down to the minute. Last year, Kareta asked a small asteroid discovered about four hours before affecting the Earth.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 moves out of the Earth’s view in May and will not return until 2028. Still, the threat assessment should be further along, and if The asteroid seems to be going towards the ground that will be several years to make an action plan.

Asteroid breaks up over the Philippines hours after detection serving as a reminder of greater threats to the ground

Almost Earth Asteroid 2024 YR4 observed with the very large telescope of the European Southern Observator in January 2025.

(Credit: ESO / O. HAINAUT et al. / Fox Weather)

“We would evacuate people out of the area. We would tell them in advance,” Kareta said.

Until the size of the asteroid is more accurate, it estimates when and where it can hit the soil will be difficult.

“If this thing lands in the middle of the sea, you will hear about it on the news, right? And everyone will think it’s cool. But if this lands over a populated area, there will be plans ahead of time.

Next month, with additional observations, the threat of asteroid YR4 could be down to zero.