Odds for Asteroid 2024 YR4 hit the Earth went up but it was expected

On February 13, 2025By Littum

Astronomers expect the odds of 2024 YR4, which collide with the Earth will fall when more observations of its orbit are made.

Astronomers have been watching an asteroid between 130 and 300 feet long, which has a very small chance of going down to Earth in less than eight years.

And when they learn more about Asteroid 2024 YR4’s orbit, the odds of influence are expected to rise slightly before they fall (hopefully to zero), Asteroid hunter David Rankin told Space.com.

This process has begun to unfold since the asteroid was only discovered late in last year on a potential collision course with the Earth in 2032. In a time, the odds of influence swung around 1%before suddenly jumping in recent days to 2.3% .

The disturbing odds are the highest any asteroid that has had to influence the earth in more than two decades since the infamous apophis was first discovered and later excluded as a threat. But astronomers are still not too concerned about YR4, and they insist that you shouldn’t be either.

In the weeks, months and years to come, aerospace agencies are planning to monitor YR4 to better calculate a course that will be more than likely to be harmless. And with the slimming chance that the asteroid is actually a threat, it may be time for Earth to implement its planetary defense strategies that agencies such as NASA and the European space agency have spent years clarifying.

What is Asteroid 2024 YR4 and why are scientists aware of it?

Asteroid 2024 YR4 has been an alarm source because it carries an unusually high risk of colliding to the ground – an event that would be disastrous, although it would not cause a mass extinction.

Space Rock was discovered late last year and reported on December 27, 2024 to Smaller planet centerthe official authority to observe and report new asteroids, comets and other small bodies in the solar system. The object in the end caught the attention of NASA and other astronomers As it rose on the US Space Agency Sentry Impact Riskica TableThere are all known asteroids sporing a non-zero probability of hitting the ground.

The original projections gave the asteroid a little more than 1% chance of influencing the Earth on December 22, 2032. Asteroid 2024 YR4 also rated 3 of 10 on Turin Impact Hazard ScaleA method for astronomers to categorize and judge the threat of near-earth objects.

The International Asteroid Warning Network also emits a list of Possible places of influenceranging from uninhabited or sparsely populated areas to densely populated areas of the eastern Pacific, northern South America, the Atlantic, parts of Africa, the Arabian Sea and South Asia.

What are the latest odds of YR4 hitting the ground?

As further observations came in, the risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 strikes the soil. Last week made up the impact probability 2.3%, According to NASA.

The asteroid will continue to be visible from Earth through April, giving astronomers some time to collect data with terrestrial telescopes. While the asteroid is not again observed from Earth until June 2028, NASAS James Webb -Room Telescope will be able to Examine that in March from Circuit.

“As several observations of the asteroid’s trajectory are achieved, its effects of effect will become better known,” NASA said in a recent blog post. “It is possible that the Asteroid 2024 YR4 will be excluded as a hazard of impact, as has happened with many other items.”

Among these objects is Apophis, the cruise ship size asteroid, first discovered in 2004.

Asteroid 2024 YR4’s rating at 3 on the Turin scale is the second highest that an asteroid has ever reached after Apophi’s map hit a rating of 4. 2.7% on Sentry Impact Riskica Table.

In case of apophis, additional observations eventually allowed astronomers in 2021 To exclude the possibility of an influence when the asteroid makes a dense fly town to the ground in 2029 and again in 2036.

NASA, other aerospace agencies build planetary defense from asteroids

In the coming years, both NASA and European Space Agency are planning to take advantage of the rare flying town by sending Ucewed spacecraft to observe apophis.

It is one of the many plans that the agencies have in place as part of a greater effort to build a defense to protect humanity from threats set by asteroids and other in -depth room stones.

In September 2022, NASA demonstrated that it was possible to push an incoming asteroid out of Damage’s way by throwing a spacecraft in it as part of its Double asteroid Redirecting Testor darts.

Launched in November 2021, Darts traveled for more than 10 months before crashing into Dimorphos of approx. 14,000 km / h. Although the small asteroid did not pose any threat to Earth, NASA had tried to test a method of redirecting threatening objects throwing themselves to the ground.

In October, a craft from the European Space Agency is on the way to get a close look at the remains of the asteroid.

NASA is also working on an asteroid-hunting tongue known as Neo Surveyor To find objects almost the soil capable of causing significant damage. The telescope is set to launch not earlier than June 2028 and is designed to detect 90% of asteroids and comets that are 460 meters in size or larger and come within 30 million miles from the Earth’s orbit.

Eric Lagatta covers breaking and trending news for USA Today. Well him at [email protected]