Expert shares key facts about asteroids that could hit the ground in 2032

An asteroid that is capable of angry a medium -sized city Could potentially collide with the ground Eight years from now, when its orbit around the sun short cuts our planet’s path. Named 2024 years Very slim odds of striking land – Either on Earth or even less likely, the moon – and astronomers have so far set the likelihood of a crash of approx. 2%.

International space organizations like NASA take the possible threat seriously, no matter how small it may be. Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency’s planetary defense office, said their attention should not be unnecessarily raising public concern. He shared key facts about the asteroid with CBS News during the conversation below, which has been edited for clarity.

When would the asteroid hit the ground?

This asteroid passes us every four years. Each time we walk four times around the sun, it has almost precisely completed a walk. It has recently had a Flyby in December 2024, which means the next Flyby is in December 2028 and we already know that this is no problem.

The critical is in 2032, December 22, somewhere around the middle of the day in universal time. That’s when the asteroid goes, really through part of the Earth’s orbit. So it really goes through the Earth’s path, so to speak.

And the question is whether the earth will be there at this point or whether it has already gone or is still approaching this point. That’s the question where will it go by? There is an uncertainty region that is currently spanning the entire earth-moon system-which should not say that we do not know much about it. In fact, we know a lot about it.

Now we look at a final moment in time on December 22, 2032, and the question is about fractions of one meter per meter. Second, which will make all the difference.

There is about a 20-minute window where the earth may be in the way of this until it is no longer in the path to the asteroid, or the asteroid can no longer come into contact with the soil.

How is asteroid risk controlled?

Until recently, we made daily measurements with different telescopes. Then we had to break a little for one or two days due to the full moon and the item was too close to the full moon, and the moon illuminates the sky too much to see it.

From now on, we do not monitor it daily, but it is constantly monitored in the best possible way with ever -increasing telescopes. And the idea is to measure its path around the sun in ever higher positions so that you will see this region of uncertainty shrink and shrink and shrink. And we are trying to limit the uncertainty so much that we can say whether it goes safely by the ground or whether there is still a chance back in mid -April.

What happens in April?

We will be so far away from the object that we can no longer observe it from the ground. And then the James Webb telescope makes measurements. It will actually take one in March, primarily infrared observations that give us more insight into the size of the object, and then one more in May to perform further measurements. The most likely scenario is that at that time we can say, we can prove that it will not hit the ground, but there is a chance that we cannot eliminate it completely. And that will be the more interesting bit, because then we have to wait until mid -2028 when we can observe it again. We will not let that time go by without action.

When was the last time an asteroid had similar odds to hit the ground?

This is only the second time that affects prediction systems has assessed any asteroid with an impact probability of more than 1%. Last time was for approx. 20 years ago, With Asteroid Apophis in 2004A few percent reached a short period of time before the uncertainty region could be limited.

It shows how unusual 1% is and that means we as experts have to take this seriously. But with the current probability estimated at approx. 2%, it is still about 98% likely that nothing bad will happen at all. So it needs to be remembered all the time. This is something that deserves attention, but it is not perceived as an impending threat. It’s just, we have to find out more about it.

Does asteroids have this size actually crashed into the ground?

We are aware of a recent example in the story where this has happened. It was 1908 in Siberia. There was an event where 2,000 square kilometers of forest had been flattened by a large explosion, high up in the atmosphere. And this is very consistent with a body of approx. 50 meters in diameter plus or minus 10 meters that enter the Earth’s atmosphere.

The body itself was probably not a solid piece of stone. It was more like what we call a pile with smaller pieces of rock. And this bursts several kilometers above the surface and had this effect that 2,000 square kilometers of forest were flattened out, that seismic waves went out of this and could be detected far away, that people witnessed this event, even from very far away.

We do not know if anyone was injured in this accident. Nothing is reported. But the size, the destruction of the destruction can be compared to a large urban area or a metropolis on the ground. So this is basically the scenario that we would expect from this.

Another example that was not registered in human history was an object that is believed to have been about 50 meters in diameter, a massive part of iron that formed barring meteor -cratered in Arizona. It’s a 1.2 kilometer crater. If you look at this and think about it, if it should hit in a city, the city would look very, very different afterwards.

The estimated size of this asteroid varies from approx. 40 to 90 meters. Wouldn’t there also be a big difference between the damage caused by something 40 meters wide against 90 meters?

Absolutely. I mean, the 40 to 90 meters are a standard estimate because we cannot know at this point what the surface lighting is. Current data indicates that it is more towards the size of 40 or 50 meters. Fortunately, in the smaller size area, which is why I cited these popular examples of this.

But actually means size size for asteroids. Size means a lot. If we talk about the doubling of an asteroid radius, it means eight times the mass, eight times the energy, and that is of course a significant difference. While at the lower end of the scale, with approx. 40 meters, it would be threatening, let’s say, a medium -sized city, at 90 meters edge, it can be comparable to the largest urban areas.

Why is the probability that 2024 YR4 will hit the ground when it was first discovered?

The good news is that this increase does not mean that the asteroid has become more dangerous. The path to the asteroid is defined by physical laws. It is already clear. It’s just our knowledge of where that way would be, in reality, is not perfect yet.

The percentage can be compared to the size of the uncertainty area compared to the size of the soil. If you look at the fraction, the soil size – which is in the field of uncertainty – is compared with the entire area of ​​the uncertainty of where the asteroid could be at the critical time. This corresponded to approx. 1%when we reached this threshold for international consciousness.

Since then, the size of the uncertainty region has basically shrunk by half. And fortunately the size of the earth remains the same. So it means that the soil now occupies twice the amount of space in the uncertainty region. And this means that our estimate of the risk of impact has increased from 1% to 2%. That doesn’t mean anything has changed.

Again, 2% is a 98% chance of missing. So what will happen is, with our winning knowledge, uncertainty will shrink further and further and further, and the expected case is that we will manage to shrink it so much that the soil is no longer in this region of uncertainty, and then the effect of effects will will drop to zero.

In the event that this is a dense flying city to the ground, if it is reasonably close, it is completely possible that the effect of effects continues to rise slightly on a modest path. This is still no need for alarm.

The asteroid has been awarded a level 3 location out of 10 on Turin Impact Hazard Scale. How unusual is it?

This is the first time ever that an object is officially classified as a level 3 on the Turin scale. The only other object ever classified by a level higher than 1 was apophis. Due to its larger size, apophis has been classified as a 4 on the Turin scale, which really just indicates that it is a larger object. (Apophis has an estimated diameter of 350 meters, which is much larger than the asteroid 2024 years.)

What else should people know?

The most important thing is that you do not panic. Always good advice, but it is certainly applicable advice in this situation. I think this gives us a chance to prove that we as a planet can still rise over things on Earth that are between people, between countries, between parts of the earth. That if we face a completely external threat that we can all come together, go together and meet these kinds of threats together.

This one is a manageable challenge. Even if it was going to Earth, which is in no way safe, 98% are clear that it will miss us. So not much to be afraid of, but a good chance of showing that we can stand united on this planet.