South Tornado -threat, rare ‘high -risk’ flooding danger

On February 16, 2025By Littum

Dangerous flash flooding is expected from the south to Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians.
Tornadoes and devastating thunderstorms are probably also in the south.
Have a safe, dry interior to go through this evening.

L IFE-Throwing flash flooding and severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes, are possible this weekend from parts of the south into Ohio Valley and Appalachians.

(Live blog: Last news and updates?

H Appening now

B and heavy rain are already streaming through the Ohio Valley and the Mid-South region, which you can see in the current radar image below.

S OME -Flash flooding warnings have already been issued this morning in parts of Kentucky and Western Tennessee. Floods are already reported in parts of Clarksville, TennesseeAbout 40 miles northwest of Nashville near the Kentucky border. Water rise up to property has recently been reported in Northeastern Tennessee.

S OME roads in Kentucky has been washed out. At least one vehicle has been pushed away from the road In Corbin, Kentucky and a quick hiking rescue were performed on Saturday morning west of Bowling Green.

Rare ‘high risk’ flood view

H Eavy precipitation spreads over the south to Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians through Saturday night.

This rain falls on the ground saturated from several rain rounds over the past several days. Molten snowpack from winter storm Harlow In the past also contributes to streams, brooks and rivers Running high right now.

Given all this, Noa’s Weather Prediction Center issued its highest level of excessive rainfall, shown by the purple shade area on the map below from Western Tennessee to Kentucky.

His rarely issued high -risk highlights what NOAA-WPC wrote In their Friday afternoon forecast. WPC also noticed this moist, unstable setup is “Anomal for Mid February”.

(PERSPECTIVE: Why ‘high -risk’ flood prospects are important?

This view from Noaa’s Weather Prediction Center shows the chance of heavy rain that would trigger flash flooding, in increasing categories of threat, through the specified period.

Along with saturated soil, the concern is thunderstorm with heavy rain could “exercise” – which means storms could remodel and roll over the same place for several hours as boxes of a train over the same part of the railway track. In this scenario, flash flooding could happen quickly. Hilly or mountainous terrain only raises the threat of this heavy rain that runs off quickly and raised rivers in valleys.

D ozens of river meters is expected to measure at least minor floods, according to the National Weather Service. Some of them could even be pushed in Moderate or greater flooding Over the weekend.

The forecast requires as much as 3 to 6 inches of rain throughout the weekend; Some isolated locations could easily pick up more.

F LOOD -URE has been issued by the National Weather Service for the heavy rain threat from Lower Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys to the central Appalachians.

P arts of this stretch has been upgraded to a “particularly dangerous situation” flooding watch in western Kentucky, southern Illinois, southwestern Indiana and southeastern Missouri. This means that widespread considerable flooding is possible.

Do not try to drive through flooding water on any roads in these regions this weekend. If you live in a flooded location, make sure you have more ways to receive National Weather Service alerts and be prepared to evacuate quickly if flooding threatens or is requested by local emergency.

(MORE: Why a ‘flash flood’ alarm ‘alarm could save your life?

(Flood Alarms issued by National Weather Service.)

Severe weather threat too

We are also concerned about a rash of severe thunderstorms elsewhere in the south this weekend.

According to Noaas Storm Prediction Center (SPC), a wide area from eastern Texas to Georgia, Tennessee and Kentucky could see serious thunderstorms through Saturday night.

Within this wider area, the biggest threat of severe weather from northern Louisiana is expected into southeast Arkansas, Mississippi, Southwest Tennessee and Western Alabama. It could include Jackson, Mississippi and Memphis, Tennessee.

D Amaging Wind Gusts is the biggest threat as a squall line slices east from late at night into the night over hours. Wind throw could exceed 60 km / h as the storms move through, especially in eastern Mississippi and southern Alabama.

More tornadoes are also possible. Some of these tornadoes could be stronger (EF2 or major damage) in the darker shaded areas of the map below.

In eastern sections of the threat area on the map during the hard weather concern, there will be overnight in early Sunday. It includes parts of Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee. So make sure you have ways to receive warning information during this time.

S Unday’s serious threat will be lower, but some harmful winds and a straying tornado can occur in front of a cold front from northern Florida to the Delmarva Peninsula.

(More: How to remain sure of a tornado threat at night?

(Shadow on the map above is the likelihood of severe thunderstorms, according to Noaa’s Storm Prediction Center. Note that not all categories apply to the serious weather risk of a particular day.)

J Ennifer Gray is a weather and climate war for Weather.com. She has covered some of the world’s largest weather and climate stories in the past two decades.