Purdue Basketball: Penn State Preview

Pennsylvania State University (7-1) – Ken Pom #40

Basic information

Location: State College, Pennsylvania

School Type: Public Land-Grant Research University

Mascot: Nittany Lions

Head Coach – Mike Rhoades

Seasons at Penn State: 2 (including current season)

Penn State Record: 23-18

Other Head Coaching jobs:

Rice (2014-2017): 47-52

VCU (2017-2023): 129-61

Career Record: 199-131

Regular season conference championships: 1 (VCU)

Conference Tournament Championships: 1 (VCU)

NCAA Appearances: 3 (0-3)

Last 4 appearances: 0

Kenpom play style

() = National Ranking per Kenpom

Crime

Adj. Efficiency: 115.6 (32)

Avg. Possibly Length: 15.3 (20)

Defense

Adj. Efficiency: 98.3 (57)

Avg. Possibly Length: 17.1 (151)

Pace

Adj. Pace: 71.7 (30)

Kenpom 4 factors

() = National Ranking per Kenpom

Crime

Effective FG%: 59.2 (9)

Revenue %: 16.3 (109)

Off. Rope. %: 34.4 (69)

FTA/FGA: 40.5 (57)

Defense

Effective FG%: 47.8 (93)

Revenue %: 23.4 (10)

Off. Rope. %: 27.7 (107)

FTA/FGA: 32 (149)

Staff

Penn State on offense

If you like point guard games, be sure to tune in tonight because the top two in the Big 10 will be going at it in State College. Ace Baldwin is the centerpiece of the Penn State offense; everything revolves around him. The Nittany Lions mainly play 5-out with the post open to give Baldwin full access to the field. Sometimes they’ll run through a set and the center will stay on the block for the second action, but generally it’s Baldwin at the top of the key pulling the strings with an open lane.

They will play fast and take the first shot available in transition. On misses, they find Baldwin with an outlet pass and the offense starts. This is not a team you can work on the court against because they will attack after misses and shots. It relies on Ace to run the show at a fast pace and find 8-10 easy points a game by catching the opponent standing around.

In the half court, the pick and roll combination of Baldwin and center Yanic Konan Niederhauser is hard to stop. YKN (Penn State’s equivalent of TKR in terms of name abbreviations) is an interesting player. He’s 7’0”, 250, but he’s more of a rim runner and finisher than a post player. His agility is impressive for someone his size and Baldwin loves to throw up lobs and let him finish above the rim and let YKN go up and get it with his impossibly long arms. I expect a heavy dose of high pick and rolls from Penn State and look for more lobs against the Boilermakers tonight than you’ve seen over the last 3 seasons combined.

When Baldwin isn’t lobbing to YKN, he’s driving and kicking to wing Zach Hicks. The 6’8” sharpshooter leads the team in attempts (48), makes (24) and percentage (50) from beyond the arc. Penn State wants to put Hicks in the corner, run the pick and roll and make Baldwin punish any help from Hicks’ defender. If you leave Hicks, Baldwin will find him and Hicks will make you pay. Virginia Tech left him alone, and Hicks had 19 points on 5-9 shooting, with many of those attempts coming off an Ace Baldwin assist (he had 10 for the game).

Finally, the Nittany Lions love to cut to the basket. I covered their game against Clemson, and I’m not sure I’ve seen a non-Ivy League team score that many cuts to the basket. Ace Baldwin always has his head up and when his guys cut, he finds them. When he’s off the ball, Baldwin will cut and look for an easy bucket. Penn State has been dominant against poor competition this season because they find easy looks and convert. They are 9th in the nation in effective field goal percentage for a reason. Simply put, they end up getting a lot of open shots around the rim because of Baldwin’s ability to find the open man.

Penn State on defense

Penn State is a majority half-court, man-to-man team, but they have a full-court, diamond press that they also like to use at the end of halves.

I won’t lie, Penn State is annoying to play against on offense. They swarm, stick to the ball, skip lanes, and Yanic Konan Niederhauser is an eraser when he is allowed to come from the weak side as a help defense.

The good news is that Clemson gave Purdue a good look at what Penn State struggles to defend in its only loss of the season to the Nittany Lions. The Tigers played small and used 6’8” Ian Schieffelin to facilitate the offense from the top of the key. That pulled YKN away from the hoop and allowed Schieffelin to either attack the dribble from the top of the key and finish or hit open shooters spotted around the rim. Schieffelin and TKR are almost identical players. Ian is slightly better at passing and rebounding and TKR is a better post finisher, but overall they play the same type of game. Schieffelin won the game for Clemson with 18 points, 13 rebounds, 8 assists, 4 steals and 2 blocks while committing just 2 turnovers. TKR can win this game for Purdue in a similar fashion. I don’t think you’ll see the same number of assists and rebounds, but you could see significantly more points from Purdue’s star.

It will be interesting to see what Penn State does with Smith on the edge. While I would like to see TKR used more as a facilitator in this game, everything will still run through Braden Smith. I expect Coach Rhodes to try to make Smith more of a facilitator out of the pick and roll. I expect them to patch up the shooters and have Braden prove he can finish at the rim over an athletic 7’0″ shot blocker. This could be a game where both TKR and Smith struggle to finish at the rim in the pick and roll as long as YKN is on the floor. If Penn State lets Braden get into the body of the shot blocker and finish strong. The best way to prevent YKN from shorting the Purdue pick and roll is to get him off the field. The Boilermakers can do some of that via TKR in the paint, but it would help if Smith could draw a foul or two driving to the basket on the Penn State big man.

Purdue also needs to be ready for the full court press. Penn State can jump it at any time and they will need cheap baskets to win this one. They avoided pressuring Clemson, but the Tigers essentially play two-point guards at all times. I expect them to push Purdue’s favored lineup of Smith, Loyer, Colvin, Heide, TKR more than usual to try to capitalize on the lack of utility ball handlers. This could be a game where either Harris or Cox gets more run to help Smith with the pressure if Penn State decides to lean on it more in this game.

Overall

Penn State is a good team that could give the Boilermakers some matchup problems, but I go back to their loss to Clemson and see a way forward. The Tigers were able to slow the game down and have Ace Baldwin try to win the game on his own at half court. Ace scored 20 and 11 and Clemson won 75-67.

I see Coach Painter implementing a similar strategy tonight. Purdue has the better team in the half court and will play if it is played one possession at a time. The Boilermakers could struggle if this game is played in a transition phase, and that’s the type of game they’ll try to lure Purdue into. Braden can’t take the bait and settle for a look early on the clock that he could get late on the clock. The only team that has managed to slow down Penn State beat them.

The formula is simple. Don’t turn it over, make Penn State work the defense and make Ace Baldwin do it on his own. The execution is, as always, much easier to draw from behind a keyboard.

Forecast

KenPom

Purdue: 77th

Penn State: 75th

Drew

Purdue: 79th

Penn State: 67th

I don’t want to be disrespectful to Penn State. I wouldn’t be shocked if they win this game. Ace Baldwin is the real deal, and he’s the type of player who can win a game on his own (Purdue should give him a try). At the same time, I like Purdue’s experience and shooters to win out in the end. TKR expresses itself in this.

The Big10 POTY trophy will have to be pecked out by West Lafayette.