No. 24 Michigan Wolverines at No. 22 UCLA Bruins College Basketball Preview

The Michigan Wolverines are 3-0 in the Big Ten and back in the top 25 after surviving against USC on Saturday night. It wasn’t the first time this season that a significant lead had evaporated, but Dusty May’s team knows how to respond. Now they have a chance to really make a statement against No. 22 UCLA Bruins. A 4-0 start to conference play, with three road wins, would be massive in early January, but it’s no gimme.

Adding UCLA to the conference was an exciting move from a basketball perspective, even after a lackluster 2023-24 season. This year is already looking better with an 11-3 record and a top-20 KenPom rating, although the loss to Nebraska over the weekend showed there is still room for growth. Winning at Pauley Pavilion is no small feat, but returning home with a W would significantly boost Michigan’s expectations for the rest of the season.

No. 24 Michigan Wolverines (11-3, 3-0) at no. 22 UCLA Bruins (11-3, 2-1)

Date and time: Tuesday 7 January at 10 p.m. ET
Location: Pauley Pavilion, Los Angeles, CA
TV/streaming: Peacock

The Bruins are led by their top-five defense, which played a key role in big non-conference wins over Arizona and Gonzaga. They also beat Oregon in the early conference games, although they are just 1-2 over their last three outings. Still, UCLA is firmly in the top tier of the conference, with early bracket projections placing them in the 3-4 seed range.

Michigan has actually faced UCLA three times in the last decade. A home-and-home series was split, with the Bruins winning in Los Angeles in 2016 and the Wolverines storming back from 15 down to win in overtime the following season in Ann Arbor. The teams met again in the 2021 Elite Eight, with Juwan Howard’s team losing an ugly one in an icy shootout in the Covid tournament.

One big question: Can the defense step up?

When Michigan struggles on defense, it’s often against athletic teams that excel at ball screens and find good looks through quick ball movement. Even in the loss, USC recorded 19 assists on Saturday, and the Bruins are 43rd nationally in assist rate. While UCLA’s offense is the weak side of the ball — and has struggled in conference play — Michigan has yet to earn the benefit of the doubt.

Fighting through screens will be key, and staying ahead of Tyler Bilodeau and Eric Dailey (if healthy) is imperative. Nebraska did a good job of disrupting the pick-and-roll, and Michigan will need to do the same. Threes aren’t a central part of UCLA’s game, but it will take them when available. A 4-for-28 effort from deep against the Cornhuskers was too much to overcome, but Michigan knows a bad shooting night (like against Oklahoma) can be turned around quickly.

One thing to watch: Strength on strength

UCLA ranks fourth nationally in defensive efficiency and leads the country in forcing turnovers, which is almost too obvious to talk about. While Michigan might be able to compete defensively in the half court, giving up a bunch of steals can quickly ruin this game. Against this defense, the Wolverines will have to be patient and pick their moments as the game may not be played at their preferred pace.

The Bruins have been solid defending the paint, but this is obviously Michigan’s strength, so how this game plays out will be exciting. Danny Wolf seems like the perfect x-factor in this matchup and his ability on the ball could make the difference between a win and a loss. Nothing comes easy at the rim, but the Wolverines must attack and avoid settling for tough shots, which May has done a great job of implementing. This will likely be frustrating at times, but should be a good test of Michigan’s offensive resiliency.