NBA MVP odds: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander appears as the favorite ahead of Nikola Jokic

On By Littum

Two Western Conference superstars stand out from the pack in the NBA’s MVP race. In the midst of an impressive 15-game regular season winning streak, Oklahoma City Thunder point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander now has the best odds to win his first Michael Jordan Trophy.

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokić beat out Gilgeous-Alexander for MVP last season when the pair were among a trio of finalists. Coming off another stellar season, Jokić remains a strong contender to win back-to-back MVPs for the second time. With another win, Jokic would become the sixth player in league history with four MVP awards (joining Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Michael Jordan, Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain and LeBron James).

Last week, the duo had identical +120 odds at BetMGM to win the MVP. The numbers shifted heavily in Gilgeous-Alexander’s favor after a signature stretch over the weekend that included notable Thunder wins over the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics.

NBA MVP odds

Although MVP is increasingly looking like a two-man race, two Eastern Conference stars lurk in the distance.

Shai creates separation with an excellent weekend

A pair of clutch performances in marquee weekend matchups helped Gilgeous-Alexander (-165) make a significant jump up the odds board.

Against the red-hot Knicks, Gilgeous-Alexander ended New York’s nine-game winning streak behind 33 points, seven assists and four rebounds. It was just the fourth game in NBA history between opposing teams on streaks of nine games or more.

Gilgeous-Alexander scored or assisted on 16 of Oklahoma City’s 25 points during a decisive 25-10 run in the fourth quarter. That was just the beginning of a memorable weekend for Gilgeous-Alexander.

Against the defending champion Celtics, the guard tallied 33 points, 11 rebounds, six assists, three steals and two blocks. The win over Boston included an impressive sequence that started with Gilgeous-Alexander putting Jayson Tatum’s shot on the glass and ended with the guard throwing a lob on the other end to a cutting Isaiah Hartenstein.

For the season, Gilgeous-Alexander is up to 31.3 points (third in the NBA), 6.1 assists, 5.6 rebounds, 2 steals and a career-high 1.1 blocks per game. Remarkably consistent on a nightly basis, the Canadian has only one game all season in which he scored fewer than 21 points. The guard’s shooting percentage has risen to eye-popping levels (55 percent on field goals, 41 percent on 3-pointers, 95 percent on free throws) over the last 10 games.

Oklahoma City’s incredible team defense only strengthens the case for Gilgeous-Alexander. With Boston held to just 27 second-half points and a season-worst 3-point shooting game (9-for-46) on Sunday, the Thunder lead the NBA in steals per game (11.8) and defensive rating (102.7). Even with injuries to center Chet Holmgren and guard Alex Caruso, Oklahoma City’s defense remains threatening in part because of Gilgeous-Alexander’s defensive versatility.

The individual offensive numbers of Gilgeous-Alexander aren’t as significant as those of Jokić, but the Thunder are on a 70-game winning streak and play elite defense despite missing two of their best defenders. If the offensive consistency continues and the Thunder win the West’s no. 1 seed, Gilgeous-Alexander has a strong case for his first MVP.

Jokić stays in the race with ridiculous numbers

Given his MVP pedigree and outrageous stats, Jokić (+130) is right in the MVP mix.

Not to be outdone by Gilgeous-Alexander over the weekend, the Joker had two memorable head-to-head matchups against the San Antonio Spurs and star center Victor Wembanyama. Jokić just missed multiple 40-point triple-doubles and averaged 43.5 points, 13.5 rebounds and 9.5 assists in two games against the NBA’s best defender.

Jokić is top three in the league in points (31.5 points, second), rebounds (13, third) and assists (9.7, second) per game while shooting 55 percent from the field and 47 percent from 3- point range. Forced into more of a scoring role this season with Denver missing Aaron Gordon for an extended period of time, Jokić is putting up more points than his previous career high (27.1) and five points more than last season’s MVP campaign (26.4). Despite the highest usage rate of his career (32.9), Jokić also has the lowest turnover percentage (8.7) of his career.

Oklahoma City’s team success and Gilgeous-Alexander’s improved defense could be differentiating factors in a close race. The Nuggets are already 9.5 games back of the Thunder in the Western Conference, where Denver boasts a defensive rating below the 19th-ranked team (113.5).

Can the Greek Freak sneak back into the race?

Giannis Antetokounmpo looked like a serious third-round contender a week ago. Then outstanding weekends from Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokić saw the Greek freak’s odds go from +650 to +2000.

The NBA’s scoring leader with 31.6 points per game, Antetokounmpo already has the NBA Cup on his resume this season. Although his perimeter shooting is down (20 percent on 3-pointers, 60.5 percent on free throws), Antetokounmpo is shooting 60.2 percent from the field while averaging 11.6 rebounds, 6.1 assists and 1.5 blocks per match.

Managing the NBA’s minimum 65-game threshold is a concern for the Greek Freak to stay in the race. Missing several games already this season due to right patella tendinopathy, Antetokounmpo has played more than 65 games just twice in the previous five seasons. Antetokounmpo required stitches in his right hand Monday after recording a triple-double in a Milwaukee win.

Tatum falls behind after strong start

Boston Celtics star wing Jayson Tatum (+3500) dips in the odds as his numbers begin to falter. Tatum is averaging 28.1 points, 9.4 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 1.3 steals per game. match.

The return of a healthy Kristaps Porziņģis to the Celtics rotation has chipped into Tatum’s scoring numbers over the past month. At +1800 odds to start last week, Tatum is now +3500 after the Celtics lost to Oklahoma City this weekend.

Playing for a deep Celtics team that boasts six double-figure scorers, Tatum’s numbers are starting to slip against the three MVP leaders.

(Photo by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)