Notre Dame, Penn State picks, predictions

On By Littum

game

The first semifinal of the College Football Playoff will be in the heat of Florida as the rest of the national is affected by a cold spell in the first full week of the new year.

Notre Dame and Penn State collide in the Orange Bowl, with the winner advancing to the national title game and a chance to end the school’s long championship drought. The Irish last dominated college football in 1988. The Nittany Lions won their last title two years prior in 1986.

Another story to watch is that both teams are led by black coaches — Marcus Freeman of Notre Dame and James Franklin of Penn State. The game means it is guaranteed that a black coach will be in the Bowl Subdivision national championship game for the first time.

On the field, both teams mirror each other. They are two of the best defenses in the country, but lack explosiveness on offense when facing quality opponents. It’s shaping up to be an old school fistfight where a turnover and a big play could be key. So who wins? Our experts make their choice.

Scooby Axson

This is expected to be a defensive grinder, so the team that can consistently run the ball and get their quarterback to get the ball to the playmakers will win. This usually means that when two top 10 defenses play, the first team to 17 will win. Irish quarterback Riley Leonard won’t have to do much through the air like he did in the Georgia win, but making plays with his legs will extend drives and be the difference in the game. Notre Dame 24, Penn State 9.

ORANGE BAN: Breakdown of the game between Notre Dame and Penn State

BIG MOMENT: The matchup of black coaches in the Orange Bowl is historic

Jordan Mendoza

Which defense will rule the day? Both Penn State and Notre Dame have been able to limit opponents on their way to the semifinals, leaving each team to earn every single point on the scoreboard. Penn State’s offense appears to be more potent than Notre Dame’s, but it Fighting Irish cause mistakes with the most turnovers forced this season. Notre Dame causes offense to Drew Allar and hold on to get past the Nittany Lions in a tough contest. Notre Dame 20, Penn State 16.

Paul Myerberg

Two elite defenses will battle for a spot in the title game. The Orange Bowl could come down to turnovers and which quarterback is best able to handle pressure and extend drives on third down. Penn State has better weapons in the passing game, but Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard’s legs will be a big asset as the Irish look to extend drives on third down. A low-scoring game comes to an end with the Irish pulling it out. Notre Dame 23, Penn State 16.

Eric Smith

James Franklin’s history against elite teams is well documented. Penn State has consistently come up short in big games, and questionable coaching decisions have been a big part of those losses. So will he and the Nittany Lions get over the hump? They are the better team on offense, with Tyler Warren a unique threat that Notre Dame can’t match and will struggle to defend. But like most big games that match up two elite defenses, this one should be close and the teams will be separated by a handful of big plays. The Fighting Irish have shown a greater propensity to find ways to win that way. You have to like their chances of doing it again. Notre Dame 20, Penn State 17.

Eddie Timanus

This is a bad matchup for Penn State, the kind of game where the Nittany Lions will need big plays from their passing game, which simply won’t be there due to Notre Dame’s secondary lockdown. Granted, the Fighting Irish won’t get many of those either, but the added dimension of quarterback Riley Leonard’s mobility gives the offense will be the difference. Notre Dame 26, Penn State 13.

Dan Wolken

This is where the reality of the new College Football Playoff format becomes a separator. As impressive as Notre Dame won the first two games, it came at a cost. This is a broken football team, with key defensive lineman Rylie Mills suffering a season-ending injury against Indiana and tight end Cooper Flanagan injured against Georgia. Running back Jeremiah Love and defensive lineman Howard Cross also struggled against Georgia but look set to play. Penn State’s biggest question mark is Abdul Carter, their best defender, who was forced out of the quarterfinals. If he’s limited, that changes things. But as it stands, I’m going with the slightly healthier team. Penn State 27, Notre Dame 23.