Long-term forecast: Mel Gibson returns to the director’s chair with Lionsgate Thriller FLY RISK

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Long Range Forecast – January 24, 2025

Flight risk | Lionsgate

Domestic opening weekend: $6M – $10M

Mel Gibson returns to the big screen – albeit behind the camera – in the action thriller Flight riskstarring Mark Wahlberg as a pilot transporting an air marshal (Michelle Dockery) and a fugitive (Topher Grace) preparing to testify in a high-profile criminal case. Originally slated to premiere last October, the film’s new late January slot could give it the breathing space required to attract a theatrical audience. This is Gibson’s first film as a director since 2016 Hacksaw Ridge ($15.1M domestic opening, $67.2M domestic total), also released by Lionsgate. Solid word-of-mouth and awards season momentum helped this film secure largely modest runs that kept it in theaters from November to early March.

Flight risk has a clear runway to make an impact over the first few weekends. When it opens, another action thriller Den of Thieves: Pantera (also from Lionsgate) will have been out for two weeks. After flight risk, there isn’t another action-oriented film hitting theaters in wide release before its Valentine’s Day debut Captain America: Brave New World. January has proven to be a familiar release window for star-driven thrillers, right from the top of Amazon MGM’s The beekeeper (1/12/24, $16.5M domestic opening, $66.2M domestic total) or Lionsgate’s Cave of Thieves (1/19/18, $15.2M domestic opening, $44.9M domestic total) and The commuter (12/1/18, $13.7M domestic opening, $36.3M total) to lower-grossing efforts like Open Road Films’ The shooter (1/15/21, $3.1M domestic total, $15.5M domestic total) or Aviron Pictures’ serenity (1/25/19, $4.4M domestic opening, $8.5M domestic total). Before Flight riskour forecast panel predicts a domestic performance somewhere in the middle of those extremes, putting it more in line with Screen Gems’ release Proud Mary ($1/12/18, $9.9 domestic opening, $20.8M domestic total), though marketing—and the presence of Gibson in the director’s chair—could push grosses further north of $20M.

Tracking Updates (as of January 3rd)