Den of Thieves 2, Better Man Box Office: Opening Weekend Projections

Will a gruff, globe-trotting cop and an anthropomorphic chimpanzee pop star be able to kick-start the box office in 2025?

The year’s first two new nationwide releases, Lionsgate’s “Den of Thieves 2: Pantera,” a heist thriller starring Gerard Butler as a caper-busting sheriff, and Paramount’s big-budget “Better Man,” a musical biopic in which a CGI- abe portrays British singer Robbie Williams, hoping to draw audiences to the big screen amid the post-holiday slumber. However, wildfires raging in parts of Los Angeles could affect film showings in one of the largest theater markets in the country. Paramount canceled the LA premiere of “Better Man” due to fires and extreme winds.

The “Den of Thieves” sequel is aiming for $11 million to $13 million from 3,000 North American theaters over the weekend, while “Better Man” is expected to bring in $2 million from a slimmer screen of 1,200 venues. Whether “Den of Thieves 2: Pantera” steals the no. 1 spot at the domestic box office, will depend on the endurance of Disney’s “Mufasa.” The “Lion King” prequel topped the charts in North America with $23.4 million in the first weekend of 2025 and looks to add $12 million to $15 million in its fourth frame. “Mufasa” has generated $170 million domestically and $478 million worldwide to date.

Unless “Den of Thieves 2” exceeds expectations, initial box office sales will not improve on its predecessor, which opened to $15.2 million in late January 2018 and earned $80 million globally by the end of its theatrical run . Lionsgate believes the caper sequel will stay in theaters throughout January, which tends to be a lighter month at the box office for new releases. “Den of Thieves 2” cost $40 million, although Lionsgate usually mitigates risk by selling foreign rights to its theatrical titles.

Christian Gudegast returned to write and direct “Pantera,” which also sees the return of Butler as Big Nick, a rough-and-tumble Los Angeles police officer now on the hunt in Europe to track down Donnie (O’Shea Jackson Jr.), a ex-marine turned robber who plans a massive diamond heist.

“Better Man,” which was acquired by Paramount for $25 million, is an off-kilter take on the recent boom in musical biopics (films about Amy Winehouse, Bob Dylan, Elvis Presley, Whitney Houston and Bob Dylan have hit theaters in last three years, while one at Michael Jackson opens later this year). The story captures the rise of the best-selling local artist through the lens of a chimpanzee because, as Williams puts it, he always felt “less evolved than other people.”

Michael Gracey, who helmed “The Greatest Showman” starring Hugh Jackman as PT Barnum to sleeper hit status, directed “Better Man.” The film launched in limited release (six venues total) in late December and has grossed a measly $91,696 so far. Since Williams is not as well known in the United States as he is across the pond, reviews and word of mouth will be very important to the commercial success of “Better Man.” Critical sentiment has been overwhelmingly positive, with Variations chief film critic Peter Debruge writes that “against all odds, the gimmick that separates the project from so many other cookie-cutter pop star hagiographies works.”

Hollywood is betting on 2025 as a rebound year after the pandemic and two union strikes wreaked havoc at the box office. January has only a handful of newcomers on the calendar, including Universal’s horror thriller “Wolf Man” and Sony’s R-rated comedy “One of Them Days” with Keke Palmer (Jan. 17) and Lionsgate’s “Flight Risk,” starring Mark Wahlberg as a assassin (Jan. 24). However, the winter season is expected to take off with Marvel’s “Captain America: Brave New World” on February 14. Paging Sam Wilson!