3 NBA Best Bets and Predictions for Thursday 1/9/25

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines and totals. The league has 1,230 games in the regular season, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow down the choices. number Four’s NBA power rankings and NBA Game Projections paired with advanced statistics from the NBA can help provide the inside track to quality bets.

While using some of the mentioned tools like NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note that lines may change during the day after this article is published.

Today’s best NBA betting picks

Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers

Cavaliers over 125.5 points (-118)

After taking down numberFour’s second best team in the nERD-based power rankings Wednesday, the Cleveland Cavaliers get a much more favorable matchup tonight vs Toronto Raptorswho occupies 27th place on the power ranking list. As NumberFour’s top-rated team, Cleveland is a heavy favorite with 15.5 points for tonight’s game.

While I hesitate to support such a large number, we have an opportunity for value elsewhere. Toronto has the fourth-worst defensive rating compared to the Cavaliers, who boast the league’s top offensive rating. Cleveland’s team total is sky high at 125.5 points, but I still believe the overflow should be in play.

The Cavs logged just 129 points while shooting 52.2% from the floor against Oklahoma City Thunderwho has the league’s best defensive rating. This was included Donovan Mitchell having an off night, also with just 11 points paired with an 18.8% field goal percentage (FG%). Cleveland was able to attack in any fashion against the Thunder, putting up 60 points in the paint while draining 15 of 36 three-pointers (41.7%).

On Thursday night, the Cavaliers should have their pick again. The Raptors give up the sixth most points in the paint per match and eighth most three-point attempts per competition. According to Dunks & ThreesToronto also allows the ninth-highest shooting distribution around the rim and the seventh-highest three-point shooting distribution.

Pace of play shouldn’t be too much of a concern either, as the Raptors play at the eighth-fastest adjusted pace compared to Cleveland’s sixth-fastest mark. Each team is in the top half of field goal attempts and fast break points per game. match.

After averaging 126.6 points per game (PPG) over the last 10 games, the Cavs have more than enough offense to make this happen against one of the NBA’s worst defenses.

Houston Rockets at Memphis Grizzlies

Rockets Moneyline (-110)

DRating’s Game Projections hair Houston Rockets wins by about two points away against Memphis Grizzlies. Models often fail to recognize damage, and Memphis’ Yes Morant (shoulder), Jaren Jackson Jr. (leg), Desmond Bane (ankle), and Santi Aldama (ankle) are all questionable. Those are the Grizzlies’ top four scorers, and Morant (31.9%), Jackson (29.4%) and Bane (23.3%) lead the squad in consumption rates.

Houston already excels on the defensive end with the third-best rating. If Memphis is without its best scoring options, it should be a big challenge to put points on the board. On the other hand, the Rockets are mostly healthy and are allowing the sixth-fewest points in the paint per game. games and the second-fewest three-point makes and attempts per competition.

The pace of this game should also matter, as Houston plays at the 11th slowest adjusted pace compared to the Grizz’s fastest pace. Controlling the possession game via rebounds will likely change this, and Houston is slightly better with the highest offensive rebound percentage and 12th highest defensive rebound percentage. Memphis has the 2nd-highest offensive rebound rate and 16th-highest defensive rebound percentage.

Of course, no Jackson and/or Aldama would be big losses for the Grizzlies’ rebounding. The two forwards are in the top three in rebounds per game (RPG) on the team, giving the Rockets room to control possession and tempo battles.

In the end, these teams look pretty close, as Memphis sits fourth compared to sixth-place Houston in the NumberFour power rankings. If Memphis is without as many as four key players, taking the Rockets feels like an easy choice.

Portland Trail Blazers at Dallas Mavericks

Trail Blazers +7.5 (-108)

The Portland Trail Blazers has managed to find some success in the new year, going 2-1 and 3-0 against the spread (ATS) over the last three games. They will face one of the best teams in the Western Conference tonight, but that Dallas Mavericks will be minus Luka Doncic (calf), Kyrie Irving (back), and Daniel Gafford (ankle) is questionable.

Despite the notable injuries, the Trail Blazers are still 7.5 point underdogs. There is some value in a cover considering Portland’s recent level of play.

The Mavericks scored the ninth most points in the paint per game. game, and attacking the rim will likely play an even bigger factor as Luka and Kyrie are in the top three on the team in three-point attempts per game. match. By giving up the 12th fewest points in the paint per game, I like the Blazers’ chances on defense. Much of this depends Donovan Clingan (rest) and Robert Williams (ankle) as they are listed as daily. After missing Wednesday’s game from rest, Clingan is likely to play and is contributing a team-best 112.4 defensive rating among qualifying players.

With Clingan in the rotation, Dallas’ ability to attack the rim should decrease. Plus, Portland already holds opponents to the 13th-lowest three-point shooting percentage and 13th-fewest three-point attempts per game, potentially limiting the Mavs’ second-best scorers behind Doncic and Irving — Klay Thompson and PJ Washington.

At the other end of the court, the Trail Blazers have the third-highest shot distribution around the rim. Dallas allows the highest shot distribution around the rim (13th-highest) compared to mid-range and three-point shots.

The bottom line: Portland has multiple angles to keep this close, which mainly includes controlling the paint battle. Give me the Blazers to cover against a thin Mavericks rotation.

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The above writer is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports bets on FanDuel. The advice given by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports bets.