2025 College Football Playoff Ohio State-Texas Betting Guide

The Ohio State Buckeyes and Texas Longhorns meet in a historic College Football Playoff semifinal Friday night in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

Texas, the last SEC team standing in the playoffs, will face a Buckeyes team that is already the odds-on favorite to win the national championship at ESPN BET (-140).

Ohio State opened as a five-point favorite over Texas after the Buckeyes easily handled No. 1 seed Oregon Ducks in the Rose Bowl last week. The line has since moved up one point to -6, with the total moving down one point from 54.5 to 53.5 before the game.

Defense has largely been the strength of a Longhorns team that has been inconsistent on offense at times during the postseason. Texas had ranked near the top in nearly every defensive category during the season. They face a Buckeyes team that has shined offensively with Will Howard at quarterback and some of the most talented players in the nation around him, including Jeremiah Smith.

All odds are accurate as of timestamp. All times eastern. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.

College Football Playoff Semifinals at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

8-seed Ohio State vs. 5 seed Texas
Friday, January 10 at 7:30 p.m., ESPN

Spread: Ohio State (-6)
Money line: Ohio State (-215), Texas (+180)
Above/below: 53.5 (Over -105/Under -115)
First half spread: Ohio State -3.5 (even), Texas +3.5 (-120)
Money line in the first half: Ohio State (-190), Texas (+150)
Total points in the first half: 26.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Ohio State totaled points: 29.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Texas Total Points: 23.5 (Over -110/Under -120)

Matchup Prediction (by ESPN Analytics): Texas by 0.2 (50.5% chance to win)

The Buckeyes are preparing to take down the Longhorns, with Jeremiah Smith poised to be the star of the show. At just 19 years old, the newly graduated wide receiver has turned heads and broken records, and he has become a potential game changer in this highly anticipated matchup. Smith’s journey from promising recruit to collegiate superstar has been nothing short of extraordinary.

Smith’s freshman season has been a master class in dominance. With 70 receptions, 1,224 yards and 14 touchdowns, he has redefined what a freshman can do at Ohio State, breaking several freshman records along the way. His Rose Bowl heroics against Oregon — seven catches for 187 yards and two touchdowns — cemented his status as a rising star. These aren’t just impressive stats for a rookie; they are elite in every way, elevating Smith to the realm of college football’s best receivers.

What makes Smith truly special is his NFL-ready skill set. Standing at 6-foot-3 with a blend of size, speed and strength that is rare even among experienced players, Smith plays with a maturity and polish that belies his age. His precision in route running, ability to create separation and penchant for contested catches make him a nightmare matchup for any defense.

Smith’s presence looms large for a Texas secondary that has been exposed in key moments this season. The Longhorns, who surrendered 336 passing yards to Clemson and 99 receiving yards to Arizona State’s RB Cam Skattebo, will have their hands full trying to limit Smith. Cornerback Malik Muhammad, in particular, struggled against Clemson and could find himself in a similar predicament if matched up against Ohio State’s No. 1 recipient.

game

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Smith’s brilliance does not exist in isolation. Ohio State’s roster is loaded with seasoned veterans, including several fourth- and fifth-year seniors such as WR Emeka Egbuka – a key part of the wide receiver group – and RB TreVeyon Henderson, known for his explosive play and ability as a receiver. Together, this offensive unit brings invaluable experience and poise to high pressure play. Their leadership not only stabilizes the team, but also amplifies Smith’s influence, providing the perfect environment for him to thrive. That cohesion is critical against a Texas team known to falter in the second half, especially under the strain of relentless offensive pressure.

The Buckeyes’ ability to exploit Texas’ weaknesses in pass coverage and their inconsistent pass rush further tip the scales in Ohio State’s favor. Quarterback Will Howard, equipped with a quick release and a sharp football IQ, will likely target Smith early and often, exploiting mismatches in the Longhorns’ secondary. As Denzel Burke, Ohio State’s veteran cornerback, very aptly noted, “He’ll probably be the best receiver to come through here. He’s already on that edge.” Such praise underscores the extent of Smith’s talent and the impact he is poised to make.

When you play Ohio State, there is no room for error, and with Texas struggling with the risk of Quinn Ewers’ interceptions and a ground game that lacks the ability to punish defenses, perfection is a must. Unfortunately for the Longhorns, that’s a level of play we haven’t seen from them this season — and we won’t see in this game.

Another way to attack this game is to take Ohio State in a moneyline rollover parlay, which provides better value than the current futures market price. At -225 against Texas and an estimated -280 in the national championship, the rollover offers -110 odds, significantly better than the -145 futures price, making it a sharper bet if you trust Ohio State to win both games.

Pick: Ohio State (-6)