MBB Preview: Mizzou takes scary trip to Florida

Through Mizzou’s first three SEC contests, the Tigers have performed up to the expectations of many outsiders.

A road beatdown at the hands of Auburn was followed by two solid home wins over LSU and Vanderbilt. Now, Mizzou heads to the Sunshine State for a matchup with Florida, who the Tigers haven’t beaten since March 2021.

That game featured a game-winning reverse layup by Dru Smith with 0.7 seconds left in regulation; 12 days later, Mizzou’s NCAA tournament dreams came true when the Tigers won the No. 9 in the West Region (although they eventually fell to No. 8 Oklahoma). Florida also made the big dance, securing the no. 7 seed in the South Region, where they would upset the No. 15 by Oral Roberts in the round of 32.

This year is similar, with both teams having NCAA Tournament aspirations, though their projections aren’t nearly as similar as they were four years ago. The Tigers live life on the bubble, while the Gators sit pretty among the nation’s top teams.

Missouri @ Florida

When | 8 p.m. CT

Where | Stephen C. O’Connell Center; Gainesville, Fl.

TV | ESPNU I SEC Network+

Radio | Tiger Radio Network // Sirius/XM -119/199

Twitter | @MizzouHoops

ESPN Win Probability | 19.1% chance

The starters

Mizzou (13-3, 2-1 SEC)

G: Anthony Robinson II (SO, 10.6 PPG)

G: Tamar Bates (SR, 13.0 PPG)

G: Tony Perkins (SR, 8.0 PPG)

F: Mark Mitchell (JR, 13.5 PPG)

F: Trent Pierce (SO, 8.4 PPG)

Notable Sixth Man: Josh Gray (SR, 2.5 PPG)

Florida (15-1, 2-1 SEC)

G: Walter Clayton Jr. (SR, 17.2 PPG)

G: Alijah Martin (SR, 15.9 PPG)

G: Will Richard (SR, 13.3 PPG)

F: Alex Condon (SO, 11.0 PPG)

F: Rueben Chinyelu (SO, 5.3 PPG)

Notable Sixth Man: Thomas Haugh (JR, 7.4 PPG)

Note: These starting lineups are expected.

Get to Know Florida: These Gators Are Dangerous!

While college basketball is still in its early days of conference play, it’s not a stretch to think this could be the best Florida team since the end of Billy Donovan’s tenure. The Gators were pretty good in 2016-17 under Mike White, going 27-9 en route to a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

But this year’s squad has a legitimate shot at a No. 1 seed, which the Gators last achieved in 2013-14. After lost to Colorado on a last-second shot in the Round of 64 last seasonFlorida didn’t completely overhaul its roster in the offseason. The Gators brought in a trio of transfers, all of whom have contributed significantly so far. Alijah Martin (Florida Atlantic) has been one of the most productive combo guards in the country. Rueben Chinyelu (Washington State) has been a one-man wrecking ball on the interior, and Sam Alexis (Chattanooga) has provided solid rotation minutes at the forward spot as an interior scorer and rebounder.

But much of Florida’s danger lies in its recurrence. Walter Clayton Jr. has turned himself into a legitimate Wooden Award candidate, capable of scoring and passing from all three levels of the offense. Alex Condon has built off a solid freshman campaign nicely; The 6-foot-11 Aussie has become a lethal scorer from the post as well as an excellent rebounder (at least eight rebounds in 12 of 16 games so far). Will Richard, an explosive senior forward, has remained one of UF’s top scorers and has at least two steals in 12 of 16 games so far. From the bench, Denzel Aberdeen has supported Clayton nicely at point guard, while Thomas Haugh has provided valuable minutes at forward.

The Gators have a great resume so far. They rolled through non-conference play, including a 17-point rout of tournament hopeful Arizona State in the Jumpman Invitational. Their only close call came against North Carolina three days after crushing the Sun Devils, surviving a second-half comeback by the Tar Heels to take a 90-84 victory.

Florida’s only blemish is a 106-100 shootout loss to Kentucky on the road. The comeback was strong as the Gators blew the doors off Tennessee, who couldn’t throw a chair off a bar roof if they tried (I know it’s Nashville, which is about three hours away from Knoxville, but it’s still Tennessee! ). Its last game was a 71-63 win over Arkansas in Fayetteville, a game in which the Hogs shot a porous 18-of-60 from the field and 2-of-16 on layups, a number that John Calipari refused to believe that was true after the game.

There isn’t much Florida struggles with. Todd Golden’s crew is elite in scoring, defense and rebounding. Their staff are skilled, versatile and experienced. The Tigers will likely have to play their most complete game of the season to leave the Sunshine State with a massive win.

3 keys to the game

Attack the basket

Led by Chinyelu, Florida’s interior defense is exceptional as opponents shoot just 42.8% from two-point range, which ranks No. 8 at national level.

Despite the lack of production UF has allowed inside, there is a crack Mizzou could potentially expose. Florida’s big ones tend to dirty…a lot. Chinyelu, Alexis and Haugh each average about five fouls per game. 40 minutes, which is not ideal for the Gators. The question came up against Arkansas; along with Martin, Chinyelu and Alexis struck out against the Razorbacks in 20 and 22 minutes of action, respectively. Arkansas shot 35 free throws, 10 more than Florida had allowed any team in their previous 15 games.

On the other hand, Mizzou has generated a historic amount of opportunities from the free throw line. Per BartTorvik, its free throw rate is 51.1, which trails only Winthrop (52.6) for the national lead. The last team to finish with a free throw rate over 50 was Texas A&M Corpus-Christi in 2014-15 with 51.

Especially if Mizzou struggles from the three-point line (Florida ranks No. 3 nationally in opponent three-point percentage), getting to the charity stripe will again be paramount to success on offense.

Rebound!

Besides being great at scoring and not letting the other team score, Florida is also arguably the best rebounding team in college basketball. The Gators lead the nation in rebounds per game. game (46.1) and is tied with Illinois for the national lead in rebounding percentage (59.7%). UF is especially elite at cleaning up its own misses, as the Gators are the No. 3 in offensive rebound percentage. Condon and Chinyelu combine for nearly 16 rebounds per game. game, while Martin is one of the better rebounding guards in the country, averaging nearly six boards per game. match.

Last season, Florida and Mizzou met twice, and the Gators dominated the glass each time. However, MU’s staff this time around is much bigger and more athletic than last season’s group, which was one of the worst rebounding teams in college basketball. Transfers like Josh Gray (5.3 rebounds per game) and Mark Mitchell (4.8 rebounds per game) have helped turn the Tigers from a terrible rebounding team (No. 345 in rebounding percentage last season) to a average (No. 113 this season) .

There is still a good chance that Florida will not only win the rebounding battle, but by a healthy margin. However, if Mizzou can keep the gap on the glass tight, it will likely benefit them greatly.

Win the turnover battle

Since the 2021-22 season, the Tigers are 8-22 when committing at least 14 turnovers. This season they are 2-2; the only anomaly is the Illinois game, where Mizzou lost despite winning the turnover game 16-8.

Florida isn’t elite at taking care of the ball and turning other teams over, but that’s not bad; The Gators are the no. 42 in turnover percentage and no. 155 in opponent turnover percentage.

However, recent history says Mizzou doesn’t do well when it turns the ball over often. Not giving an already dangerous Florida offense extra possessions would also be a big help for MU.

Prediction of games

My prediction: Florida 84, Mizzou 69

As previously mentioned, Mizzou matches up with Florida far better than last season.

But the Gators have played like a national championship team for most of this season; The Tigers don’t seem quite there yet. While an upset win in Gainesville is by no means off the cards, Florida presents plenty of challenges that will be tough for Mizzou to overcome.