Scoot Henderson has not reached bust status (but must do this to avoid it)

Scoot Henderson entered the NBA with sky-high expectations as the Trail Blazers’ overall No. 3 picks in 2023. Portland’s decision to use their no. 3 picks to kick start their rebuild instead of trading it away for Damian Lillard for more immediate help was probably the right call.

But was the draft for Henderson? There are a few players Portland should have drafted instead of Henderson, most notably Houston’s Amen Thompson. However, that doesn’t mean we can definitively say that Henderson is a bust just yet.

Things haven’t gone according to plan, but he’s only 20 years old and still figuring out how to play the hardest position to learn in the league. Scoot’s stats don’t jump off the page as someone who is steadily improving. In his rookie season, he averaged 14.0 points, 5.4 assists, 3.1 rebounds and 0.8 steals on a 39/33/82 shooting split.

Almost halfway through his second year, those numbers are very similar, except for his scoring, which has taken a dive. Scoot is averaging 10.9 points, 5.0 assists, 2.9 rebounds and 1.1 steals on 40/30/77 shooting splits.

Scoot Henderson is showing subtle signs of progress

Still, overall, this has been a better season for Henderson than his rookie year. Henderson is gradually learning to implement change-of-pace plays into his game, which is necessary to succeed as a floor general. His decision making has improved noticeably and he has reduced his turnovers from 3.4 to 2.7 per game. match. The eye test suggests that his shot selection has improved as well, as Scoot doesn’t seem to be forcing up reckless shots as often.

Although Henderson’s scoring is down this season, it’s more of a Portland problem than a Scoot problem, as his role and opportunities have declined since last season. As a rookie, Henderson had a usage rate of 26.0 percent while averaging 28.5 minutes. His usage rate has dropped to 21.3 percent this season, with his playing time down to 25.7 minutes per game. match.

His ability to get downhill and attack the paint has been heralded since coming into the league. Scoot’s 12.7 drives is just 0.2 behind Anthony Edwards and ahead of a pair of superstars, most notably Giannis Antetokounmpo and Devin Booker. Scoot is shooting 46.2 percent from the field on those drives, ahead of players like Edwards, Tyrese Maxey and Stephen Curry. Those are cherry-picked names, but the point is that Henderson’s lack of finishing is blown out of proportion.

Areas Henderson must improve to avoid bust status

Areas where Henderson needs to improve significantly to avoid bust status, however, are his shooting and defense. It’s extremely difficult to be an impact guard in the modern NBA if you can’t shoot or play defense. For context, the average three-point percentage for point guards in the league is 35.0 percent, so Scoot still has a ways to go in that department.

His defense also remains a huge liability, as Henderson ranks at the bottom of the league in several key defensive players. Henderson is getting better at using his athleticism to play the passing lanes. He’s still figuring out how to effectively guard in pick-and-roll situations, which is concerning considering how PnR-heavy the league has become.

Henderson has shown subtle signs of progress this season, although it hasn’t been linear or as significant as some had hoped. The jury is still out on the Blazers’ 20-year-old guard.