Will you still be able to use TikTok if it’s banned?

TThe TikTok ban is fast approaching on January 19th. But there’s plenty of uncertainty about what will actually happen to the app that day. TIME spoke to experts who claim that regardless of what actually happens on Sunday, the TikTok user experience is likely to be drastically degraded in the coming weeks.

Will users be able to access TikTok?

There is a strong possibility that TikTok will shut down completely. During a Supreme Court hearing last week, a lawyer for TikTok said the app will “go dark” if the court does not suspend the ban. Wednesday, Reuters reported that TikTok is preparing to shut down its app on Sunday: that anyone trying to log into the app will be directed to a message warning them of the ban and asking them to download their data if they wish to do so. Users in India, who banned TikTok in 2020, are met with a similar message.

A full website block would go beyond what the law mandates, which prohibits app stores and third-party service providers from hosting the app and its related data. Let’s say that ByteDance, the Chinese companies that own TikTok, simply followed that set of rules. On Sunday, new users would be barred from downloading the app. However, those who already have TikTok on their phone will still have access to the app and won’t face any legal penalties for logging in.

But TikTok would no longer be able to update the software, making it buggier and slower over time. The app’s security would also be weakened, making users more susceptible to hackers. In this scenario, TikTok would die a slow death as its technology degrades and its social fabric weakens with users leaving for other platforms.

Is using a VPN an option?

Many TikTok users may try to use a VPN (virtual private network) or order to access the app. VPNs encrypt location data so users can make it appear as if they are somewhere else in the world. After X (formerly Twitter) was banned in Brazil, demand for VPNs skyrocketeddespite the government threatening users with a $9,000 per day fine for using such solutions.

Kate Ruane, director of the Free Expression Project at the Center for Democracy and Technology, says VPNs would give users legal access to TikTok. (CDT joined one amicus brief supports TikTok and its users.) But Ruane predicts that the experience will quickly deteriorate for those users, especially since TikTok files will not be allowed to be hosted in the United States. service, as video in particular is very dependent on high fidelity broadband internet access,” she says.

Bruce Randall Donald, a professor of computer science and mathematics at Duke University, adds that VPNs may not work very well on smartphones, the very medium for which TikTok was designed. “They’re not going to work very well on devices like an iPhone, iPad or Android that don’t have the full strength of VPN security,” he says. “The experience will likely be more seamless on a laptop or desktop. But if you’ve ever used TikTok on a laptop or desktop, it’s not a very satisfying experience.”

Read more: Why so many TikTokers are moving to Chinese app Red Note ahead of ban

Will the US government intervene?

Some members of the government have tried to save TikTok from its impending demise. On Wednesday, a group of lawmakers led by Massachusetts Senator Ed Markey introduced the TikTok Deadline Extension Act, which aims to pause the ban for 270 days. But the original ban was passed with broad bipartisan support, and it is unlikely that this new bill will pass both chambers in time.

President-elect Donald Trump is also interested in pausing the ban, arguing that as president he should have time to pursue a “political solution” to the issue. When he becomes president, he can temporarily suspend the law if ByteDance has started the process of selling TikTok. But ByteDance has stated several times that the app is not for sale.

Trump could also order his Justice Department to refrain from enforcing the law, essentially rendering it toothless and nullifying its power. In Supreme Court oral arguments last week, Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar recognized that the chairman has the power to do so. But she also said that if ByteDance or third-party providers continued to operate TikTok in the United States, they would be violating the law, which would make them susceptible to future enforcement.

Ruane expressed a similar sentiment. “Even if President Trump and the incoming attorney general say, ‘I’m not going to enforce this law,’ there would still be significant legal risk for the companies to which the law applies that they may not be willing to take,” she says. “Because if the decision were ever to change, they could be subject to significant penalties.”

Donald predicts that most companies that could possibly provide TikTok services may instead choose to play it safe. “If they don’t comply for at least a period of time, there’s a vulnerability there, with market capitalization and shareholder situation, that would actually be somewhat dangerous,” he says.

So while there are several loopholes for users to stay on TikTok, strong disincentives are likely to lead to a steep decline in terms of platform experience. Government intervention, meanwhile, seems more remote. So unless something drastically unexpected happens in the next week, creators would do well to look for a replacement platform.