Ranking Unrivaled’s 3-on-3 roster ahead of the first season

Many of the WNBA’s biggest stars will compete over the next two months in Unrivaled’s first season of 3-on-3 basketball. But before the likes of former MVP Breanna Stewart, fellow 2024 All-WNBA first-team picks Napheesa Collier and Alyssa Thomas, as well as Brittney Griner and Sabrina Ionescu help tip off the new league on Friday, let’s break down the six-team roster. vying to bring home the first championship on March 17.

Since we’ve never seen games played using Unrivaled’s rules, which include an 18-second shot clock and a goal score, among other notable changes from the WNBA, it’s impossible to say exactly how things will play out. Still, we can look at the talent on each roster using my projections for how these players will perform in the WNBA during the upcoming 2025 campaign.

I’ve used these projections, based on production over the past three WNBA seasons, to rank all six teams in offensive and defensive rating, as well as how often we could expect them to win based on those ratings. Let’s take a look, starting with one team that is way ahead of the rest.

1. Moon owls BC

.604 expected winning percentage

Roster: Shakira Austin, Napheesa Collier, Skylar Diggins-Smith, Allisha Gray, Courtney Williams, Cameron Brink (IR)

Collier, who founded the league with Stewart, is on a roster stacked at defensive end. Although the Lunar Owls project below average on offense, their projected defensive rating is more than four points per game. 100 possessions better than any other team.

That naturally starts with Collier, the WNBA Defensive Player of the Year in 2024. Thanks to high numbers of blocks, steals and defensive rebounds, Austin has the second-best defensive projection of any player in the unmatched pool behind Collier. And all three Lunar Owls guards rate as above-average defenders for their position, though none made an All-Defensive team.

One question my projections can’t answer is how playing with just five players all season might affect the Lunar Owls, who will be without Brink, the 2024 No. 2 draft pick, after an ACL tear in June. Another minor injury will leave the Moon Owls dangerously thin. Still, they are clear favorites with this method.

2. Phantom BC

.540 expected win percentage

Roster: Natasha Cloud, Brittney Griner, Sabrina Ionescu, Marina Mabrey, Satou Sabally, Katie Lou Samuelson

The second-ranked team, on the other hand, is all offensive. The Phantoms have the second-worst defensive projection of any team, but the highest-rated offense by a wide margin. It starts with Ionescu, the top point guard playing in Unrivaled. Ionescu has built-in chemistry with Sabally, her teammate of three years at Oregon. The last time the two All-WNBA selections played together, the Ducks led the nation HerHoopStat’s offensive rating in 2018-19 and 2019-20.

As an interior counterweight, the Phantoms boast Griner, who shot a career-high 58% from the field in 2024. In a 3-on-3 format where double-teaming will be nearly impossible, Griner — who recorded the most post-ups in WNBA last season, per second Spectrum tracking — could be hard to stop.

More firepower comes off the bench in the form of Mabrey, who shot 38% on 3-pointers last season while ranking in the WNBA’s top 10 in makes — at least once Mabrey returns from a calf injury that will sideline her for at least the first two weeks. And three-time All-Defensive selection Cloud gives the Phantom a stronger defensive option on the edge.

3. Vinyl BC

.520 expected win percentage

Roster: Aliyah Boston, Rae Burrell, Jordin Canada, Dearica Hamby, Rhyne Howard, Arike Ogunbowale

In terms of pure scoring, it’s hard to beat Vinyl, who boasts three of the WNBA’s top 16 scorers in 2024 between Hamby (17.3 PPG), Howard (17.3) and Ogunbowale (22.2), as well as a fourth leading scorer in Boston (14.0). The Phantoms are the only other team that can match those numbers.

The task for Vinyl coach Teresa Weatherspoon will be to ensure that Vinyl’s scorers are integrated together instead of taking turns attacking. Canada, who averaged 5.8 APG during an injury-plagued 2024 campaign, will be key to that task. But Canada, a 24% 3-point shooter, needs to shoot more like the 33% she hit in 2023 for opponents to respect her off the ball.

If Weatherspoon can pull it off, there’s a nice balance of interior and perimeter power on Vinyl’s roster.

4. Mists BC

.488 expected winning percentage

Roster: DiJonai Carrington, Aaliyah Edwards, Rickea Jackson, Jewell Loyd, Breanna Stewart, Courtney Vandersloot

Stewart doesn’t boast a roster that projects quite as well as her co-founder, though she has the best individual projection of any player. In part, the Mist will need to shoot much better than last season, when its players combined to shoot 28.5% on 3s in the WNBA. No other Unbeaten team was below 32% as a group. Only Jackson (35%) hit that mark for the 2024 Mist.

On the plus side, the Mist’s players have been much more accurate in the past, shooting a career 34% on 3s – better than two other teams. Whether that regression catches on will be crucial for a team that should boast strong chemistry. Stewart played the past two seasons with Vandersloot with the New York Liberty and the remainder of her WNBA career with Loyd for the Seattle Storm, winning championships in both stops.

The defensive projections for the Mist are strong, and it can lock down opponents with its team perimeter stopper Carrington with Loyd and Stewart, the latter a six-time All-Defensive selection. Given that potential, I’d bet the Mist would do better than this projection.

5. Laces BC

.430 expected winning percentage

Roster: Stefanie Dolson, Tiffany Hayes, Kate Martin, Kayla McBride, Alyssa Thomas, Jackie Young

There’s a lot to like about how Laces’ roster is structured. That puts enviable shooting — 39% from 3 last season, 37% career — around one of the WNBA’s best non-shooters in Thomas, who finished second in the 2023 MVP voting.

Thomas’ ability to play point center allows Laces to pair her with McBride and Young in a starting lineup with plenty of shot creation and playmaking. Hayes, last season’s sixth player of the year, and Dolson are solid reserves.

From a statistical standpoint, Laces’ lack of rim protection is a major disadvantage. Their roster combined to block just 63 shots last season, fewer than half of the 140 by the Lunar Owls’ five healthy players. It remains to be seen how important protecting the rim will be in a 3-on-3 setting compared to Thomas’ ability to switch defenses.

6. Rose BC

.418 expected winning percentage

Roster: Kahleah Copper, Chelsea Gray, Lexie Hull, Angel Reese, Azura Stevens, Brittney Sykes

The Rose roster will be an interesting test case for the value of efficiency in the 3-on-3 game. Copper’s ability to create her own shot, Gray’s playmaking and Reese’s offensive rebounding are all elite, but none scored at above-average efficiency during the 2024 WNBA campaign. (Gray was very efficient in 2022 and 2023.)

Thanks in part to Hull’s post-Olympic hot shooting, the laces were solid from beyond the arc last season. Inside it, their players combined to shoot just 45%. No other unbeaten team was below 48% overall. With a shorter shot clock, however, the midrange shotmaking of Copper and Gray could become more relatively valuable. And it will be fascinating to see how Reese’s record-setting offensive rebounds translate to Unmatched.