Lions vs. Commanders scores and live updates: NFL NFC divisional round playoff highlights, analysis

We picked the Commanders last week to make the Super Bowl, and we’re going to need a lot of Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin magic. Because there is no reason to believe, or even dream, that the Lions will not score many points. The Commanders don’t have a very good run defense, and the Lions get David Montgomery back to pair with Jahmyr Gibbs.

Let’s not even get started on the passing game. Jared Goff and company are the best team in the league throwing against man coverage, and it’s not even close. They are no. 1 in EPA/dropback – 59 percent success, 8.9 yards per carry attempts, 22 touchdowns and zero interceptions – by a wide margin. When the Commanders played man (26 percent of the time), they ranked 25th or worse in opponent completion percentage (60 percent) and yards per carry. attempts (7.5) while giving up 17 touchdowns, second most in the NFL in the regular season. Against Washington’s man coverage last week, Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield went 7-of-8 for 80 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Holy crap.

It’s okay. We’re still on this hill with Daniels and McLaurin. The Lions, who are the walking wounded on defense, have not done well with scrambling quarterbacks all season. They are 2-2 (13-0 otherwise) against Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Anthony Richardson and Josh Allen, averaging 52 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns combined.

It gets better. McLaurin led all receivers in yards gained on go routes (387), while the Lions have allowed the second-most receiving yards per carry. plays on targeted go routes (42.8). Olamide Zaccheaus has also come on lately, and the Lions aren’t great with slot receivers either.

I’m not second-guessing myself this time. Give me the points.

The Choice: Commanders (+9.5)