Commanders vs. Lions’ bold prediction: David Montgomery dominates

It’s playoff time, and that means the Lions are getting more reinforcements. After seeing a huge defensive boost from the return of Alex Anzalone in Week 18, the Lions are poised to return David Montgomery to the lineup for their divisional round matchup against Washington’s commanders. The Commanders have one of the league’s most potent offenses. However, their weakness lies right where the Lions like it: in the run defense.

Bold Prediction of the Week: David Montgomery averages 5.0+ yards per carry. carry in his return from injury

David Montgomery doesn’t always have the same flashy stats that Jahmyr Gibbs does, and that has a lot to do with usage. Defaulting to short-yardage and goal-line situations, Montgomery is usually more between the tackles compared to Gibbs, who will have more opportunities to use his quickness to get to the edge. That usually means Montgomery isn’t racking up the same yardage as Gibbs.

As a result, Montgomery has only crossed the 5.0 yards per carry threshold three times in his 14 games this season. In particular, two of them came in absolute beatdowns against Dallas Cowboys and that Jacksonville Jaguars. The third was the season opener, so it’s been a while since we’ve seen Montgomery do that against a worthy opponent.

However, the commanders may have just the right recipe for Montgomery to cross that threshold again. The Commanders have been one of the worst run defenses in the league this year. They had a hot stretch from late November to December, holding three (mediocre) teams each to <100 rushing yards, but have since fallen out of shape again. In their last four games, the Commanders defense is allowing an average of 147 rushing yards per carry. match. It's not great.

The Commanders also present an exceptionally good matchup for the Lions offense. Only two teams in NFL history has had three games in a season with zero turnovers and zero points: Commanders of the year, and Lions of the year. That means you can expect a shootout no matter how good a recipe Aaron Glenn can make for this Lions defense. If the Commander’s offense stays in the game, then the Lions won’t necessarily be in obvious bubblegum run situations. That should mean David Montgomery will get more honest looks from the Commanders front seven, leading to more yards on the ground.

Obviously, nothing is a guarantee given Montgomery’s injury. He is returning from a torn MCL that was originally supposed to take him out for the rest of the year. There’s no telling how close to 100% he’ll be or if he’ll have to knock off some rust to start. The Lions also expect a change to the offensive line. Kevin Zeitler has been ruled out for Saturday’s game, with Christian Mahogany replacing him at right guard. That leaves a bit of a question mark as to whether the run game will be as consistent as usual.

Ultimately, the Commanders present what is likely the weakest run defense the Lions have seen in two months. It’s a great opportunity to take advantage of, but there’s no telling how ready Montgomery will be to do so. If he can hit the ground running and all goes well with Mahogany, expect him to cross the 5.0 YPC threshold en route to a playoff win over Washington.