Merab Dvalishvili vs Umar Nurmagomedov Picks, Prediction, Odds: UFC 311

MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes deep to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 311 co-main event between bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili and Umar Nurmagomedov.

Preview by Merab Dvalishvili

Booklet information:

• Record: 18-4 MMA, 11-2 UFC
• Height: 5’6″ Age: 34 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 68″
• Last Fight: Decision win over Sean O’Malley (September 14, 2024)
• Camp: Syndicate MMA/Serra-Longo (Las Vegas/New York)
• Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox/Kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Additional info:
+ UFC bantamweight champion
+ More sambo championships
+ Judo black belt
+ Amateur MMA honors
+ 3 KO wins
+ 1 submission gain
+ 1 finish in the first round
+ Relentless pace and pressure
+ Constantly improved hitting technique
^ Varies appearance and levels
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Works well from bodylock
+ Solid offensive wrestling
^ Chains attack and scramble well
+ Aggressive field attacker
^ Works well in transitions

Preview of Umar Nurmagomedov

Booklet information:

• 18-0 MMA, 6-0 UFC
• Height: 5’8″ Age: 29 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 69″
• Last Fight: Decision win over Cory Sandhagen (August 3, 2024)
• Camp: Eagles MMA (Russia)
• Stance/Striking Style: Switch Stance/Kickboxing
• Risk management: Good

Additional info:
+ Martial sambo world champion
+ Amateur MMA honors
+ 2 KO wins
+ 7 submission wins
+ 5 finishes in the first round
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Deceptively accurate hand/shot selection
^ Usually works on single images
+ Dynamic kicking ability
^ Competent from both positions
+ Explosive power double takedown
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Excellent refractive power
^ Fast reactive shots/chains attack well
+ Excellent transition grabber
^ Loves to create smoking exposure

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov Point of Interest: Snipping Vs. spamming

The co-main event for UFC 311 features a bantamweight title fight between two somewhat contrasting styles.

Despite labeling himself as an orthodox stance fighter, Umar Nurmagomedov is a competent operator from both ends.

Nurmagomedov prefers to fight from the outside and orders a ton of kicks out of both stances. Nurmagomedov is good at playing with the look and level of his attacks, from stuffy sidekicks to more powerful Thai kicks.

Once Nurmagomedov establishes a threat, the 29-year-old is smart to build off it by either going high with a question mark kick or adding sneaky counterbalancing punches to the end of his attacks.

Nevertheless, Nurmagomedov is not above being countered for his shifting sensibilities and will need to be on his best behavior against Merba Dvalishvili.

An aggressive fighter by nature, Dvalishvili has no problem when it comes to taking the fight to his opponents.

Although Dvalishvili’s background is in judo and sambo, the Georgian fighter has steadily bolstered his offense under the tutelage of Ray Longo and Syndicate MMA trainer John Wood. Not only has Dvalishvili cleaned up his general technique, but the 34-year-old has also incorporated more feints to play off of.

Dvalishvili seems to have an impeccable sense of timing, seemingly using his own awkward rhythms to throw off his opposition. Whether connecting punches with takedowns or mixing in the occasional spinning assault, Dvalishvili can be a tough character to beat.

Dvalishvili can stage attacks a little too much from the back foot for my liking, but the Serra-Longo product has shown he’s not afraid to get dirty when he needs to.

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov Breakdown: Winning the Wrestling

With grappling being an arguable core point of Dvalishvili’s and Nurmagomedov’s games, winning the fight will be paramount for both sides this weekend.

A versatile takedown artist, Dvalishvili has many tools at his disposal.
Although Dvalishvili traditionally favors single-leg snatches (like many sambo-based performers we’ve seen in the octagon), the Syndicate MMA standout has incorporated a lot more double-legs since training stateside.

From hitting shots in the open to completing doubles against the fence, Dvalishvili can be a tough customer to discourage. And when Dvalishvili gets his man down, he’s not shy about immediately looking for land strikes in transition.

Dvalishvili also looks to be a problem inside the clinch, making himself the stuff of nightmares when he’s allowed to establish the bodylock. That said, his opponent is no slouch in tight quarters.

Not many fighters have tried to upset Nurmagomedov’s perfect takedown defense rating, but the title challenger has shown some solid fundamentals and answers in the wrestling realm when challenged.

A combat sambo world champion, Nurmagomedov is a well-rounded grappler who is competent and comfortable in multiple positions.

Training with his brother under the tutelage of his uncle, Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov, from a young age, Nurmagomedov possesses a lot of the translatable wrestling and sambo tactics you’d want to see from said background.

Whether landing reactive shots on a dime or entering a clinch, Nurmagomedov is good at stringing together his attacks until he gets the desired result. From shuck-bys to backs to balancing de-basing footwork, Davlishvili will have a lot to worry about this Saturday.

Dvalishvili also needs to be alert within scrambles as he is prone to exposing his back when returning to standing positions.
As Nurmagomedov has already shown in the Octagon, the Dagestani fighter is incredibly systematic and efficient when it comes to breaking down his opponents from rear mount and riding positions.

From wrist feeds to wrist trips, Nurmagomedov demonstrates all the hallmarks of his teammates who came before him in terms of attrition and finishing resistance.

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov odds

Oddsmakers and the public favor the challenger, listing Nurmagomedov -330 and Dvalishvili +240 via FanDuel.

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov prediction, picks

While it can sometimes feel disrespectful to see a sitting champion listed as an underdog, I can’t say that the betting spread above surprises me. That said, I would caution anyone who completely dismisses Dvalishvili in this place.

In addition to appearing practically immortal, Dvalishvili is a proven output machine who is hard to look good against under any circumstances.

If Davlishvili can beat Nurmagomedov early and often, then this will likely be a much more competitive fight than the odds indicate. The potential problem, however, is that Nurmagomedov’s defensive instincts and fundamentals appear to be well intact.

Aside from his small sample size of takedown defense, Nurmagomedov also possesses offensive threats to help aid his efforts. From front chokes to front kicks, Nurmagomedov uses some solid tools to help deter takedowns.

Nurmagomedov’s front body kick in particular should have a ton of play against the current champion given what we saw in Dvalishvili’s last fight. Combine that with the unfavorable turnaround time for “The Machine” and I can’t help but side with Nurmagomedov in this spot.

I wouldn’t mind a 25-minute war between these two, but I suspect Nurmagomedov will score some sort of club-and-under in Round 2.

Forecast: Nurmagomedov in the distance

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov start time where to watch

As a co-main event, Makhachev and Tsarukyan are expected to go to the octagon at approximately 11:45 PM ET (8:45 PM local in Los Angeles). The match is streamed live ESPN+ pay-per-view.