NFL Divisional Round Props that Pop – Overs rule the weekend

Daniel Dopp and I hit five of our seven props in the first week of the NFL postseason. Bo Nix let Daniel down and Zach Ertz disappointed me from a prop perspective. (Although — spoiler — it won’t stop me from attacking the tight end position again, this time.)

While we are proud of our collective effort, we would love to achieve perfection in the divisional round.

Focusing exclusively on Sunday’s games, here are this week’s props that pop up! — Liz Loza

All odds from time of publication. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.

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Quarterback props

Lamar Jackson OVER 278.5 rushing + passing yards (-118)

Loza: Jackson’s overall efficiency this season as a passer and rusher has been off the charts. He ranks first at the position in YPA (8.8) as well as rushing yards per contest (53.8). Jackson completes 70% of his passes with a clean pocket, allowing the Buffalo Bills’ pass rush (which ranks sixth in pass rush win rate at 44.6%) to bring the heat. Still, the Baltimore Ravens’ offensive line has protected Lamar beautifully, recording the third-highest pass-block win rate (69.8%).

This dogfight proves to be tight (the Ravens are a 1-point favorite) and features plenty of back-and-forth action (51.5 game points total). But even if Buffalo manages to contain Jackson in the passing game, the QB should gain traction with his legs against a defensive unit that has allowed 4.5 yards per carry. carry to opponents.

Jackson OVER 49.5 rushing yards (-140)

Dope: Lamar has been the best rushing QB in the NFL this year, amassing 915 rushing yards on the ground in the regular season and adding 81 more yards in last week’s wild-card win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. This plug could pair nicely with Liz’s plug of Jackson, who topped 278.5 rushing and passing yards. Lamar has averaged at least 63 rushing yards in three straight games and five of its last six.

The Bills have actually been pretty decent against the run this year, but Jackson is in a different category than any other player in the NFL when it comes to running the ball. He is a true wizard when scrambling, especially when a play breaks down and improvises. I wouldn’t go lower than -140 if I took this bet, and I would definitely consider pairing this with a 275+ passing yard pass stopper. When you put the two props together it creates a nice little two-legged parlay at +163.

Josh Allen OVER 32.5 pass attempts

Dope: There’s a lot to like in this Ravens-Bills matchup, but if you think about the game the way I do, you’re probably expecting more than a handful of points to be scored. ESPN BET has the total at 51.5, so it looks like the book is expecting a decent offense in this one as well. The Ravens defense has proven to be pretty legit at stopping the ground game, allowing the second-fewest rush attempts and fewest rushing yards this season. That should mean more passing for the Bills offense. If the Ravens put up points like we expect, that means more throws for Allen.

The Ravens have the third-most pass attempts against them this season, and a 32.5 pass attempt count is by no means an astronomical amount. Allen has topped that line seven times this season and dropped four pass attempts below that line when the Bills played the Ravens earlier this year in a 35-10 loss. Eleven QBs have made at least 33 attempts against the Ravens on the season. I’m leaning into the high-scoring narrative in this one, which means I’ll take over Allen’s pass attempts on Sunday.

Matthew Stafford OVER 0.5 INTs (-135)

Dope: The Philadelphia Eagles have been on a hot streak against opposing QBs recently, nabbing at least one interception in four straight games. But the stats don’t even tell the whole story as Philly has produced eight interceptions over the four games! This defense plays hot and teams have had to throw against them more often than not towards the end of the season to try to keep up with the Eagles offense.

Stafford has actually been pretty good at protecting the ball this year. He only has one interception since week 11! I expect the story to be different in the divisional round, with the Los Angeles Rams playing in a windy, cold Philly climate. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 30s with winds of 10-15 mph and there is a 97% chance of snow in Philadelphia on Sunday with accumulation expected to be around 3-5 inches. It won’t be a whiteout, but it will certainly be a cool outing for a team from LA

Given the Eagles defense’s ability to find the ball and the likelihood of the Rams playing from behind, I’m taking Stafford to have at least one pick in this one. And you know what, why not drop a few pennies on Darius Slayton, his old teammate from Detroit for being the defensive player to come up with INT at +500 over on ESPN BET?

Running props

Justice Hill OVER 2.5 receptions (-160), longest rush OVER 5.5 yards (-130)

Loza: Hill is not the Ravens’ running back that most people are talking about this week. And that is precisely why I want to highlight his potential. The Bills have been incredibly generous to RBs through the air, allowing the second-most catches (5.4 per game) and most receiving yards (44 per game) to the position during the regular season. Meanwhile, Hill has recorded at least four tackles in each of his last three healthy contests. Additionally, he hauled in all six of his looks (for 78 receiving yards and a score) when teeing off against Buffalo back in Week 4.

While the 27-year-old has only recorded 53 carries so far this season, it’s worth noting that over 20% of those (11) went over six yards. As previously discussed, the Bills’ run defense can be had (4.6 YPC to opposing rushers). Additionally, the Bills have given up the ninth-most rushes of 10 or more yards (62). That’s great for Derrick Henry. It also makes a single rush of six yards more than possible for Hill, especially since he’s averaging 4.9 yards per carry. carry.

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Tight end props

Dallas Goedert OVER 39.5 receiving yards (straight)

Loza: The Rams defense put in a masterful effort in the wild-card round, limiting the Minnesota Vikings to nine points. LA’s young pass rush rose up and regularly pressured Sam Darnold, protecting the team’s secondary from potential exposure. However, the Rams are unlikely to have the same success as Jalen Hurts and the electric Eagles offense. While that should leave room for Philly’s wide receivers to shine, players should also expect Goedert to be involved.

LA has struggled against opposing tight ends all season, giving up the third-most catches (6.2 per game) and fourth-most receiving yards (65.7 per game) to the position. Despite the Rams’ success last Monday, TJ Hockenson converted all five of his looks for 64 receiving yards and Minnesota’s lone TD. Ranked fifth in yards per game. targets (9.5) and seventh among TEs in yards per carry. reception (11.8), Goedert does not need to be fed in order to fly. Averaging over four catches and nearly 50 receiving yards per game, the 30-year-old will flirt with four catches and forty yards on Sunday.

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